Posted on 11/14/2025 9:40:59 PM PST by SeekAndFind
China’s economy continues to drag as fresh October data shows weakening momentum across consumer spending, industrial output and fixed-asset investment. The latest numbers point to one of the steepest investment declines China has seen in decades, raising new concerns about the durability of Beijing’s recovery hopes and what the slowdown means for global markets.
New figures from the National Bureau of Statistics reveal that key engines of China’s economy decelerated again in October.
• Retail sales rose 2.9 percent year over year in October. This is down from the 3.0 percent pace reported in September.
• Industrial production grew 4.9 percent from a year earlier. In September, growth came in at 6.5 percent.
Both categories are showing clear loss of momentum. For retail sales, October marks the fifth straight month of slowing growth. That streak is now the longest deceleration China has seen since 2021.
• Fixed-asset investment fell 1.7 percent over the January to October period compared to the same period in 2024.
• That decline widened sharply from the 0.5 percent drop during the first three quarters of the year.
• Property investment fell 14.7 percent in the January to October stretch, deeper than the 13.9 percent decline previously reported.
The fixed-asset investment decline is historically significant. China has not seen a January to October drop of this kind since data collection began in 1992, aside from the pandemic period in 2020.
• Average home prices in 70 major cities fell 2.6 percent in October from a year earlier.
• Urban unemployment improved slightly to 5.1 percent, down from 5.2 percent in September.
Housing remains a major drag. Even with mortgage easing and local stimulus efforts, prices continue drifting lower, reflecting weak demand and oversupply issues in many provinces.
The slowdown is not the result of a single factor. Several policy choices and structural challenges explain why the recovery remains inconsistent.
China has launched a quiet campaign to curb excessive competition in overcrowded sectors. Officials have discouraged new investment in industries flooded with capacity, including steel and electric vehicles. This policy shift is contributing to weaker fixed-asset investment.
Last year’s consumer subsidy program encouraged early purchases of household goods, creating a high comparison base for 2025. That pulled demand forward and is now suppressing year over year growth.
The real estate sector has historically accounted for up to one quarter of China’s GDP when including related industries. With investment falling nearly 15 percent and home prices still slipping, the property market remains one of China’s biggest vulnerabilities.
Earlier this month, China reported a surprise contraction in exports for October. Producer prices have also remained negative for more than three years. Weak global demand and geopolitical tensions continue to pressure Chinese manufacturers.
Despite the slowdown, Beijing is expected to hit its goal of approximately 5 percent GDP growth for 2025. Through the first nine months of the year, GDP expanded by 5.2 percent. That leaves room for some easing through the end of the year without jeopardizing the target.
Still, policymakers are signaling readiness to intervene further if needed. More targeted stimulus for small businesses, consumer demand, and strategic industries could be deployed if economic conditions worsen.
A recent agreement between Beijing and Washington may help support China’s export categories. The United States agreed to reduce fentanyl-related tariffs from 20 percent to 10 percent in exchange for China’s pledge to curb shipments of fentanyl precursors. While this agreement is narrow, it reduces one friction point in an otherwise tense trade relationship.
Broader tariff negotiations remain unresolved. Investors should watch for any movement on technology export controls or additional U.S. restrictions on Chinese industrial subsidies, both of which have the potential to influence China’s recovery.
China’s top policymakers recently delivered their recommendations for the country’s next five-year plan, which will shape economic priorities through the end of the decade. The strategy emphasizes:
• high-end technology
• advanced manufacturing
• rising domestic consumption
• greater economic self-sufficiency
• reduced reliance on property-driven growth
An official guidebook published in China noted that real GDP growth must average at least 4.17 percent annually through 2035 for the country to reach its long-stated goal of becoming a midlevel developed economy on a per-capita basis.
China’s slowdown is not contained to China. It reverberates across global markets.
With industrial production cooling and property investment falling, demand for commodities ranging from copper to iron ore could weaken. Investors in mining and materials stocks should keep a close eye on China’s import trends.
Manufacturers are continuing to diversify production away from China. India, Vietnam and Mexico are capturing more supply chain capacity. Investors in logistics, industrial REITs and emerging markets may see new opportunities as this shift accelerates.
Tech, luxury goods and autos are particularly exposed to China’s slower consumer environment. Several S&P 500 companies have already warned about softer Chinese demand heading into year-end.
China accounts for roughly one fifth of global GDP. Even small declines in Chinese consumption ripple across the world, influencing everything from oil prices to semiconductor demand.
Last I looked they have their own Central Bank. That means they can create QE money from nothingness just like the Federal Reserve did in 2009 and bail out anything they want.
Economics is not too meaningful when money comes from nothingness.
I’m sorry china is having money troubles. It’s not like they killed untold millions recently using a bioengineered bat virus, oh wait
Tiananmen Square park.......
This article summarizes some of the significant macroeconomic changes (real estate crash, manufacturing contraction, low consumer demand), but another thing that bears mentioning, is the financial overhang of those changes.
Consumer demand is lower because so many people lost so much in real estate. Businesses have been paying more for materials, and getting less for their products for years now. Corporate profits have tanked, and bankruptcies are growing.
That leaves the banking system with growing loads of bad debt, and shrinking markets for new loans. Chinese banks have started selling their assets at a greatly increased rate. They are getting more forfeited assets from bad loans, and need to raise cash to keep operating themselves..
We would love all those numbers.
“We would love all those numbers.”
And we can have them too, if we abandon truth and reality.
You think our inflation number is truth and reality?
Chuck Fina
And don’t forget China’s yuge shortage of marriage aged women—> less kids —> less family spending and less future workers. China has both short term and long term economic problems.
Do you believe the Chinese Communists about anything?
How much do you believe our government?
Here’s my view as this question has been asked for over a decade:
The US government is widely regarded as more transparent in reporting GDP growth numbers compared to China, though both systems have their critics and limitations. US GDP data is typically collected through extensive surveys and reported by institutional agencies like the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and there is internal and external oversight plus public access to underlying data that allows for independent verification and analysis by economists and journalists. Adjustments and methodology changes are public and can be debated openly, with any manipulation risking reputational damage and protest from professionals.
In contrast, China’s official GDP numbers have long faced skepticism regarding their accuracy and transparency. Several economists, including prominent Chinese experts themselves, have suggested the official data is often systematically inflated or calculated in ways that make independent verification very difficult.
Data consistency and the ability to cross-reference government figures with private-sector and independent estimates add some layer of public trust.
There have been consistent doubts about the true growth rate, especially post-pandemic, and transparency is limited as the Chinese government centrally manages the reporting process with little external scrutiny.
China’s headline figures are set by government targets and often show limited deviation from those targets, raising questions about their reliability even among Chinese economists ( I’ve spoken to a few from China and Hongkong ).
Independent access to raw data is restricted, making third-party analysis or verification very hard.
So you have the right to your opinion, but for me, Overall, while no system is perfect, US GDP growth figures are considered more transparent and verifiable than those reported by China’s government, according to professional and economist consensus.
Don’t worry China, we’re going to come through with a new stimulus package (”tariff dividend”) to spur purchases of your goods with.
And China will win big before the inflationary impact over here sets in.
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