Posted on 11/13/2025 2:07:57 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
Poland’s population could shrink even more than previously thought, according to a provisional new forecast by the state statistics agency that assumes current record-low birth rates will continue.
The experimental calculations by Statistics Poland (GUS) show that the population could fall to just 29.4 million by 2060, down from 37.4 million currently. That is 1.5 million lower than projected in GUS’s official forecast for 2060, made in 2023 and which assumed that birth rates would rise.
The 2023 forecast outlined three scenarios for demographic change, low, medium and high, with medium selected as the official projection for analytical purposes.
Under that scenario, Poland’s population was expected to fall from 37.6 million at the end of 2023 to 30.9 million in 2060.
However, in recent years, Poland’s fertility rate – the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime – has been markedly below the assumptions used in the 2023 population projection.
To address that issue, GUS prepared an experimental analysis to examine how the population might evolve in the coming decades should the low fertility trend continue.
Between 2000 and 2017, the fertility rate fluctuated between 1.22 (in 2003) and 1.45 (in 2017). In subsequent years, it declined steadily, reaching 1.1 in 2024, the lowest level on record in Poland and one of the lowest in the world.
The 2023 forecast assumed a gradual rise in fertility, from 1.39 in 2030 to 1.49 in 2060, though still well below “replacement rate” – the figure needed to ensure that the population does not decline – which is generally defined as 2.1.
In its new experimental figures, GUS also assumed longer life expectancy than in its 2023 forecast, to account for the post-pandemic rebound of the metric.
(Excerpt) Read more at notesfrompoland.com ...
Leftist-Feminism.
Marxist conflict theory applied to gender relations. It’s meant to destroy those who follow it. And it does.
Perhaps Poland needs to import, attract the Amish. They are increasing their numbers the old fashioned way.
https://spectator.org/amish-population-surpasses-400000/
Maybe they should consider letting the children and grandchildren of Polish emigres come to Poland. There’s probably a few Polish-Canadians who’d go for this and maybe even some Polish-UK citizens too.
I’ve been there several times, and I would love to live there.
Wrongo! All the old Polaks in Chicago and Detroit should go there and knock the young women up-leave them their estate as well as a legacy in the old country.
The thing is, the politics in Poland are becoming as fractured as they are here. The President and the Prime Minister are at each others throats, and the division is pretty much males against females.
Is the point of the study to try to get Poland to take the muslim migrants to make muslim babies from the women like so much of Western Europe ?
Is the point of the study to try to get Poland to take the muslim migrants to make muslim babies from the women like so much of Western Europe ?
Tak!
The sky is falling.
There were millions of boomers in America after WWII. The rest of the world had many fewer children in that generation. The reason seems obvious. Living in America was dirt cheap between about 1945 to about 1973. Cars barely went up in price; electricity was such a small cost it barely counted. The average blue-collar worker could afford a home and a two or three-year update on the car he drove. I remember a doctor coming to our house and my dad paying him from his wallet. Now there’s a million reasons why things got expensive, but the end result of that massive inflation is many fewer children. Money, wealth, may not be the entire reason but if people made today what they made in the boomer years, adjusted for inflation, then I doubt there’d be much of a reduction in the birth rate. Not among the regular people.
Women entering the workforce drastically increased the supply of labor, and thus that put downward pressure on wages. And women were hired over men because they were paid less.
So then to get by, it required both parents to work.
Populations of nations have risen and fallen throughout history. Sometimes naturally, sometimes due to war, sometimes due to plague, sometimes due to cultural change
We are in another period of population decline. The important thing is to preserve native culture, traditions, and historical institutions.
There is NO reason a population of a nation must always go up. It only becomes a problem when a larger population is needed to service ever-more government and economy-wide debt
And that’s what they globalists and Keynesian central planners want.
I would say it’s modernism and secularism is general, of course feminism is part of that.
Also you can’t blame it on abortion, as Poland is the most Pro-Life country in Europe, at least for now.
We should be more like Japan.
I think immigration was great. But like you said, all of that was in the past.
So we should restrict immigrants to geniuses like Elon Musk.
If we need laborers for a short period of time, I'm not opposed to that either. But once they've finished their jobs, it's time to return to their mother country.
At least they will still be Polish. It will work itself out. These stories usually imply that the country will need to import more foreigners to replace them.
Initially, the double income family had an advantage. Then home builders and other manufacturers realized the family had more disposable income and raised their prices. So, you want a home in a good school district? It’s twenty or fifty percent more than it would have been before the double income families. There were other causes, but I believe that also played a part. But as you say, any change has unforeseen consequences.
I watch my renters. Ten years ago, everyone had a bank account. Today only one renter still has a bank account. I get paid in cash or with Walmart checks. The working class is running full speed and barely staying even. BTW, most of my homes are nowhere near the present market rate. After years of no change, I added between 25-75 dollars per month to account for increased taxes and insurance. They all went out and looked for another home. When I was slow getting the new leases to them, they called and asked when I’d be there with the new lease. Yes, I do know the market rate for a 3/2 is.
Exactly. The same poison that is being pushed on other white European countries and here too.
Paying for other people’s kids via taxes make us reduce our family size here. If you have to pay for illegals kids and baby momma’s kids, you can’t afford more of your own.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.