Posted on 11/03/2025 8:37:37 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
BREAKING: New data from @Kalshi on the 2025 New Jersey Governor's Race
Of traders who ACTUALLY LIVE in New Jersey, 86% believe Jack Ciattarelli will win the race
We will soon know if they’re right!
I am hoping. I remember last races. Democrat candidate is so awful, but so was urphy.
I’ve been praying it is so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The fact that polls don’t ask about citizenship in a state like New Jersey is amazing. One fourth of New Jersey residents are immigrants, and it appears that a substantial number of these have not been naturalized. You might think, “Ah, but non-citizens are eliminated in the likely voter screen.” But they’re not! “Likely voters” are no longer determined by simply asking people if they’re likely to vote. Instead, “likely voters” are determined by statistically balancing demographics, based on U.S. Census results. But the U.S. Census doesn’t ask citizenship!
Nationally, this isn’t much of an issue. To use Hispanics as a demographic they DO measure which DOES include a high number of immigrants, pollsters get a good idea of what portion of Hispanics vote through exit polls. They then calibrate how liberal or conservative the Hispanic vote will be by comparing to actual election results for the next election. In other words, they may not know WHY Hispanics don’t vote the way their polls suggest they will, but they simply account for the fact that their raw numbers are wrong in various ways. Which is one of two reasons why Hispanic vote estimates are always wildly inaccurate. (The other one is that when you divide the overall vote into small subgroups, your simply statistically unlikely to get a representational pool.)
But here’s the thing: If they survive nationally by simply learning how inaccurate they are and adjusting their results so their actual results model more closely “likely voters,” what do you do in states where there are simply way more non-citizens? This is especially important if, one party stands for naturalized citizens and the other party stands for illegal immigrants, recently arrived immigrants and immigrants who could lose their immigration status? Their votes could be highly divergent.
This means one of two things:
(1) Pollsters have presumed that non-citizens are going to vote at rates approaching that of citizens, and therefore citizenship is immaterial, or
(2) Their results will be highly inaccurate.
I suspect (1) is less true than some Republicans fear, but way, way, way higher than most voters imagine, but to the extent (1) isn’t true, than (2) is true.
So let’s go look at past elections in New Jersey:
In the 2021 governor’s race, Ciatterelli outperformed the polls by an incredibly huge 5 percent, turning a projected 7.8% landslide (using RealClearPolitics’ poll average) into a 2.8% close call.
In the 2020 presidential race, Trump outperformed the polls (while still getting skunked) by 4.5%
In 2024, he outperformed the polls by an insane 10.1% (although there were only three polls).
So the polls were off by 4.5%, then 5.0%, then 10.1%. Basically, spinning wildly out of control.
Maybe we know why?
Hope this is correct. Rich Baris does not think so.
NEW JERSEY DEMOCRAT Mikie Sherrill
will FORCE K-12 CHILDREN to take
MANDATORY ===> LGBTQ+ <=== courses
WITHOUT PARENTAL CONSENT in SCHOOLS
https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1333602698775530&id=100063774379226
That’s like FR Poll..you know who’ll be picked.
Let’s hope. The guy has been working his butt off and Scott Pressler has been signing up Repubs for over a year. Now he’s knocking on doors. We have a major “No, No, No” vote on the PA Supreme court retention. LEt’s hope the people who voted to end the COvid lockdowns remember these are the people that enforced the gestapo and come out and vote then out.
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