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ECB: Keep Calm and Carry Cash
Armstrong Economics ^ | 25 Sep 25 | Martin Armstrong

Posted on 09/24/2025 9:47:03 PM PDT by delta7

The European Central Bank (ECB) is urging citizens to “keep calm and carry cash.” The ominous message is a warning of trouble ahead. Bank runs, defaults, war, grid failures, pandemics—the current banking system cannot rely on what’s ahead. “Cash provides essential redundancy – a ‘spare tire’ – for the payment system,” the study’s authors write. “This redundancy is vital for any system, as no system is infallible.”

Indeed, no system is infallible. I have been consistently warning for decades that tangible assets are a necessity. Cash is freedom, which is precisely the reason that governments want to transition to digital and CBDC. Cash is anonymous, untraceable, and outside the immediate reach of bureaucrats. The entire fight against “money laundering” and the push to link biometric data to bank accounts is a direct assault on cash. Every penny will be tracked, and if they decide you owe taxes, they can simply deduct it without a trial.

Hoarding Euros

However, you cannot simply flee with cash in a suitcase as the majority of nations consider that a crime and will seize your money. Customs agents do not need evidence of a crime, and even if the courts clear you of wrongdoing, there is no guarantee you will ever receive it back. Money is whatever someone is willing to accept as payment. I have long advocated for silver coinage that is easy to carry and identifiable as one such alternative, especially valuable if the currency fails.

“The sustained demand for banknotes has been amplified by sharp increases in public demand during major crises, which highlights the unique role and attributes of physical currency,” the ECB states. The 2014-15 sovereign debt crisis in Greece led to massive bank runs, and people had no access to their funds. There were surges in withdrawals during COVID and at the start of the Russia-Ukraine wa,r and the ECB knows that banks simply do not have the liquidity to provide customers with cash in the event of a true bank run.

Central banks are issuing specific instructions for civil protection. “For instance, authorities in the Netherlands, Austria and Finland suggest holding amounts ranging from approximately €70 to €100 per household member or enough to cover essential needs for about 72 hours. Some jurisdictions, like Finland, are even exploring “disruption-proof” ATMs to ensure access during digital failures.” The ECB is keenly aware that trouble is around the corner.

European ECB Banking Crisis

The recent power outages in Spain and Portugal led to a significant disruption in the financial system. Grids will be targeted during times of war. Nations bordering Russia have seen a much higher demand for cash withdrawals, “with issuance levels reaching six to ten standard deviations above their respective historical norms.” The ECB reports that this level of deviation is “highly unusual,” but in times of panic, people hoard as a survival tactic. There was a 36% spike in daily net banknote issuance during the first month of the war. Expect this figure to multiply when it becomes obvious that the war is expanding beyond Russia and Ukraine.

Keep cash on hand for day-to-day needs, but remember that its use will be increasingly limited, and its portability across borders almost impossible. The real hedge will remain tangible assets that cannot be canceled by government. Next year will be devastating. If you are in Europe, the best thing you can do is get your affairs in order and leave immediately.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: cash
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Good advice t9 those in the US also.
1 posted on 09/24/2025 9:47:03 PM PDT by delta7
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To: delta7

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/articles/2025/html/ecb.ebart202506_02~1a773e2ca3.en.html

The sustained demand for banknotes has been amplified by sharp increases in public demand during major crises, which highlights the unique role and attributes of physical currency….

] As illustrated in Chart 1, panel b, monthly net issuance data…

The sustained demand for banknotes has been amplified by sharp increases in public demand during major crises, which highlights the unique role and attributes of physical currency…..

- An advisory note to the EU public about setting cash aside is most obviously a warning their banking system is expected to experience major problems. Do be aware France and England have been negotiating with the IMF for a bailout….question? How’s your war with Russia going?


2 posted on 09/24/2025 9:54:42 PM PDT by delta7
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To: delta7

Two Factoids

Several EU countries are hellbent on eliminating cash. I believe Spain is one that makes no effort to hide it. They recently tried to institute cash withdrawal limits to $600.

We have always kept a certain amount of cash and other tradable, barter materials at home. My sisters like to call it The EMP stash.


3 posted on 09/24/2025 9:58:08 PM PDT by Ronaldus Magnus III (Do, or do not, there is no try )
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To: delta7
If you are in Europe, the best thing you can do is get your affairs in order and leave immediately.

,,, to where? Sound advice regarding cash but the reality is one thousand euros per household member would be realistic when prices of everything spike overnight and even by the hour. Money outside the bank is simply stored value wherever it is... silver, canned food or toilet rolls. Pick any one and you're ahead.

4 posted on 09/24/2025 10:03:15 PM PDT by shaggy eel (A long way south of the border.)
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To: delta7

IBTG

IBTS


5 posted on 09/24/2025 10:03:21 PM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
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To: kiryandil

You made it!!! 😅


6 posted on 09/24/2025 10:05:29 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the Days of Lot; They did Eat, They Drank, They Bought, They Sold ......)
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To: delta7

Cash, gold, silver, and a full pantry.
And lead, just in case.

7 posted on 09/24/2025 10:07:15 PM PDT by chud
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To: chud

Replying to myself because I forgot to say...IBTG!

8 posted on 09/24/2025 10:08:27 PM PDT by chud
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To: delta7

It’s hard for me to get my brother to have above 200 bucks in cash.

Of course, he didn’t listen to me to pick up silver at gun shows when it was $15 bucks an ounce...


9 posted on 09/24/2025 10:09:38 PM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
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To: chud

I like the way you think.


10 posted on 09/24/2025 10:10:31 PM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
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To: SaveFerris

👍👍


11 posted on 09/24/2025 10:11:12 PM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
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To: kiryandil

It's hard to convince people.
I've only ever converted one person into buying silver.
I've given up at this point. Let the chips fall where they may, I guess.

12 posted on 09/24/2025 10:12:48 PM PDT by chud
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To: chud
I've only ever converted one person into buying silver.

I converted me. 😉

13 posted on 09/24/2025 10:24:54 PM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
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To: delta7

From the ECB article:

“While the share of cash in daily transactions has declined in the euro area, the value of euro banknote circulation has significantly increased over the past two decades”

Cartels? ECB printing paper?

“The sustained demand for cash, despite the proliferation of digital payment alternatives, suggests its distinct utility and imperfect substitutability. This stable overall demand contrasts with the diminishing share of cash in everyday payments, a phenomenon often termed “the paradox of banknotes”.”

And Ukrainians.

“Foreign bank demand, reflecting net shipments from wholesaler banks to clients outside the euro area, also spiked during globally significant events like the 2008 crisis and showed a response to the war in Ukraine.”

The Chicoms also like them.

“The results suggest that the unique attributes of cash – the fact that it is tangible, resilient, offline and widely accepted – become paramount during crises, and can also be leveraged for crisis preparedness.”

A very interesting article by the ECB to eurosplain why people want cash now.

“However, the appeal of cash is amplified by its tactile nature, providing comfort and control, and its offline functionality becoming paramount during digital system failures. Cash offers certainty concerning its nominal value, immediate access and privacy. Heightened loss aversion during crisis, coupled with varied individual perceptions of stability, make cash a tool for satisfying risk-averse individuals’ demand for direct liquidity insurance.”

“Ultimately, the evidence underscores the continued importance for central banks and the private sector to ensure an efficient and robust cash supply, encompassing adequate stocks and resilient business continuity plans.”

Are the eurotrash at least buying silver?

Thanks for posting the link to the ECB article.


14 posted on 09/24/2025 10:25:39 PM PDT by VanShuyten ("...that all the donkeys were dead. I know nothing as to the fate of the less valuable animals.”)
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To: chud

6 more bucks, and my buddy’s buy at $50 is a wash. He’s got physical, though.

[I told him NOT to, but what do I know?]


15 posted on 09/24/2025 10:30:15 PM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
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To: delta7
Cash is anonymous, untraceable, and outside the immediate reach of bureaucrats.
16 posted on 09/24/2025 10:41:38 PM PDT by ComputerGuy
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To: delta7
For instance, authorities in the Netherlands, Austria and Finland suggest holding amounts ranging from approximately €70 to €100 per household member

That's walking around money, and at the point where I would hit the ATM to get more. Disaster money is at least ten times that for a start. How many nights in a hotel room would €100 buy? How many tanks of European taxed gas? How many border guards would it bribe in case of a real emergency?

17 posted on 09/24/2025 10:46:24 PM PDT by KarlInOhio (I pray that the sleeping giant has finally awakened and been filled with a terrible resolve.)
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To: delta7
The real hedge will remain tangible assets that cannot be canceled by government.

Such as...?

There is nothing - tangible or otherwise - that the government cannot cancel seize: Land, gold, the contents of safe deposit boxes...

Regards,

18 posted on 09/24/2025 10:53:35 PM PDT by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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To: delta7
If you are in Europe, the best thing you can do is get your affairs in order and leave immediately.

Good advice t9 those in the US also.

Leave? For where? Antarctica?!

Regards,

19 posted on 09/24/2025 10:55:07 PM PDT by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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To: VanShuyten
“While the share of cash in daily transactions has declined in the euro area, the value of euro banknote circulation has significantly increased over the past two decades”
Cartels? ECB printing paper?

Most of the world's $100 bills are stuffed in Russian mattresses. But the Russians are increasingly stuffing their mattresses also with Euro notes.

And given inflation, the fact that the face value of € banknotes in circulation has increases "significantly" means nothing.

Regards,

20 posted on 09/24/2025 11:02:22 PM PDT by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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