Posted on 09/01/2025 6:26:47 PM PDT by lasereye
Perhaps the only thing that might stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in a few weeks would be a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report. Just don’t count on it.
Hiring has slowed sharply since the spring after the Trump administration launched the biggest trade wars in decades. Even with those trade disputes dying down, businesses have been slow to add new employees.
The U.S. economy added an average of only 35,000 new jobs from May through July, marking the smallest three-month increase since the pandemic in 2020.
Wall Street isn’t expecting a big uptick in August, either.
A forecast of top economists by the Wall Street Journal estimates a tepid 75,000 new jobs were created last month.
The unemployment rate is also seen rising to 4.3%, from 4.2%, putting it at a nearly four-year high.
The jobs report comes out next Friday.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled in a widely anticipated speech last week that the labor market has deteriorated enough to warrant a reduction in U.S. interest rates soon. Lower rates could stimulate the economy and spur more hiring.
But what if the August jobs report showed a surprisingly big surge in hiring? Investors might not believe it.
That’s because the government’s employment report has shown a recent pattern of exaggerating job gains, prompting President Trump to take the unprecedented step of firing the head of the statistical agency that produces it.
In June and May, for instance, initially reported employment increases were almost virtually wiped out. The latest estimates show just 33,000 new jobs were added in those two months combined — not 291,000 as previously published.
Fed governor Chris Waller argued in mid-July that the labor market was faltering, and he took a victory lap of sorts this week in a follow-up speech.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
The stock market reacted very negatively to the Fed's decision in July to leave rates unchanged. The strong jobs reports in May and June (that were later revised down) probably influenced the Fed's decision, even though there were clear signs of a slowing economy. The weak July number hadn't been released yet.
The Fed is not supposed to be basing their decisions on jobs numbers - partly because those numbers are often wrong. The fact that they appear to be doing that shows that Powell's incompetent.
Of course there's also totally unqualified idiots like Lisa Cook at the Fed. I assume she'll vote against a rate cut for political reasons, that is to harm Trump's economy.
Do people want more inflation?
If Powell allows the fired Cook to sit and vote, he’ll implicitly have begged for his own “for cause” removal.
Gee. This sounds like someone I would listen to. I think he has a thing for the Fed, and worships it, especially when he can shower praise on the Biden Economy during an election year and nobody (that we hear about in the Media) calls him on it.
I especially like the push of the narrative that 2% growth is the "new normal" and that this is a good thing. This guy sounds like a globalist puke to me.
The fed is not supposed to be manipulating the job market with interest rates. It’s job is to ensure sound money. no inflation.
he will be showing loudly and clearly that honesty and integrity are not requirements to serve on the Fed.
His term is up in January of 2026 I think and Trump will not be reappointing him to another term.
They absolutely are, it’s their job.
The Federal Reserve has a “dual mandate” given by Congress to promote maximum employment and stable prices.
Do people want more inflation?>>> Seems like it. They like to see their house price go up. And maybe don’t mind $6 eggs.
They absolutely are, it’s their job.
The Federal Reserve has a “dual mandate” given by Congress to promote maximum employment and stable prices.>>> UHHHHH no.
Did I hear correctly, that Ms Cook has a History degree??
If that’s true, just what makes her qualified to assume the position of Governor of the Fed?
Oh, wait…. That’s right, she is a DEI hire under President Biden.
That administration placed people in positions that they were totally unqualified for.
And we wonder why the federal and state governments (democrats states and cities) are raging dumpster fires.
Yes i think they said the maximum number of jobs was 43, no 75 no 199. oh shucks what is the maximum number of jobs?
And there is absolutely no correlation with the lowering of interest rates to actual hiring practices by companies. And who counts the people hired. some numb nut at commerce. Today 4000 people were hired. no maybe 5000 no maybe 7 people yeh 7.
“And there is absolutely no correlation with the lowering of interest rates to actual hiring practices by companies. “
Wrong
It's a given that hiring is correlated to the growth rate of the economy.
Sorry you can’t understand facts, do the research yourself instead of posting what you think because you are flat out wrong.
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