Posted on 08/23/2025 6:56:18 PM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
GENIUS MOVE! Russian Revenues CUT IN HALF! | RFU News RFU News — Reporting from Ukraine 686K subscribers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXBmcrP_YMY Length 5:10 Aug 23, 2025
"Today, Russia has suffered a massive defeat on the economic stage.
Here, Opec+ has cut Russia at the knees and offered India a cheap alternative to Russian oil to avoid further sanctions. With Russia desperately offering to sell its remaining oil at an even further discounted rate, revenues are dropping far lower than previously predicted, as Russia’s main economic crutch is being snapped in two.
India has been under a 50% tariff from the US since earlier this month, citing India’s continued purchase of Russian oil and weapons. While state-run Indian oil refineries had initially halted purchases of Russian crude, the complete halt of imports that the US was aiming for has not yet been realized. However, the Republican-led Sanctioning Russia Act, which promises additional tariffs of 100% to 500% already has an 84 senator majority in the US Senate, far exceeding the 67 threshold needed to override any presidential veto. The threat of an effective trade embargo by the US would cripple the Indian economy, which relies on the US for one-fifth of its exports, or nearly 90 billion dollars in 2024. Still, New Delhi has warned that making such a switch would be near-impossible, as it relies on Russia for almost 40% of its oil imports, meaning it would crash the global oil market and skyrocket prices through its sudden increased demand. However, US reports indicate that half of India’s oil imports from Russia are being resold on the global market at a profit, a scheme that can be easily halted.
Still it is not enough, but fortunately for India, Saudi Arabia’s Opec+ coalition is seizing the opportunity to replace Russia as India’s main oil supplier. Recently, Opec+ has announced it would increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day, allowing India to immediately replace over half of their required imports from Russia, at a similar price and without crashing the global oil economy. Additionally, India’s largest oil refiner has already bought over 7 million barrels from the US this month, as other oil-producing nations and companies are likely to join in on the move made by Saudi Arabia and further replace Russia’s large share in India’s oil market.
Russia is observing these developments with wary eyes, as it is becoming clear that India will not choose to remain on Russia’s side if it means it would suffer major economic losses. India accounts for roughly 45% of total Russian oil exports, and a complete stop would be a hit to the Russian wartime economy that it is unable to sustain. This is why Russia is already desperately trying to find alternative buyers for nearly half of its oil exports. Notably, Bloomberg reports that Russia has offered China the oil that India has already refused, at an even further discounted rate. Analysts state that China is likely to take further advantage of Russia’s increasingly isolated position, as Russia has few further options.
Excluding the possibility of Russia finding buyers for its increasingly lower price of oil, if India stops buying Russian crude altogether, this could add an additional 27 billion dollars or 1.3% of GDP on top of an already 2.5% Russian budget deficit. Economists note that a possible deficit of over 3.8% or 91 billion dollars would even turn Russian nominal economic growth on paper into a full-blown recession, despite the Russian government actively pumping money into the system and high wartime casualty compensations and signing bonuses boosting local economies. Making this worse, despite Russia being a part of Opec+, its increasingly limited options in global export markets won’t allow it to profit from increased production, which could lower global oil prices further and hurt Russian revenue streams even more.
Overall, economic threats and secondary sanctions from the West are removing the sidelines many countries have been standing on for the past 3 years. And while some countries are choosing to side with Russia, many see this as an opportunity to take control of Russian shares in the global resource markets, including some of Russia’s former allies. With increased production by Opec+ giving India an alternative to Russian oil imports, Russia’s only choice is to let its remaining allies take advantage of it, as a budget deficit risks spiraling into a full-blown economic recession."
It would make a difference, but is not a full blown disaster.
It will make a difference, probably not as much as its being hyped.
Oil is a fungible commodity. It is possible to manipulate its price, but it eventually finds its own level in the long term.
CC
Another very American "Reporting from Ukraine," webhosted with nameservers in the United States, with the assistance of a privacy firm in Tempe, Arizona, and additional support from a company in Hong Kong.
All hotlinked for verification: Here's details about this American YouTube channel and his business -- with sources From early this morning, 8/23/2025.
I think I have already done this recently:
1) India’s state owned oil refineries are not the majority of barrels being refined. They are the majority of refiners, but not the majority of barrels. There was an ending clause in the article that said so, though not in such a way to make it clear. India’s private refiners still buy Urals.
2) Let’s see, what else. India is under 50% tariffs since early this month, and though oil purchases are mentioned, it is more likely the fact that India exports pharmaceuticals and Trump is on a drug cost cutting focus as reason. They could stop buying Russian oil and see no change to tariffs. And they know this.
3) India’s trade surplus with the US is $41B. The $90B is exports, but they import too. India’s GDP is $3.78T. Wiping out $90B of this from outright US refusal to buy, would be 2.3% of GDP. This could be lessoned by refusing to buy US products — in which case the correct calculation is not $90B/3.78T, but the surplus ... $41B/$3.78T = 1%. A single year hit of 1% on GDP. India’s GDP growth last year was 6.5% (!!!) So erase 2.3% as a one time hit and . . . you go from 6.5 to 4.2% growth (rather more than the US).
4) When OPEC+ increases output, Russia’s allocation of that total is substantial, often 25% of it. Russia’s July oil production increased 98,000 bpd.
5) China’s consumption growth in 2024 was surprisingly flat, while India’s was +5%. China’s consumption growth this year looks modest (though anything other than the annual World Statistical Review is noisy and not valuable), but it’s production looks like it is falling modestly. The combination translates to increased import reqmt.
6) The price of Brent is in decline. Doesn’t really matter. It will reverse eventually and Russia has a Central Bank like everyone else, to create money.
Is prophecy about to be fulfilled?
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??
Previous FR threads stated that India was just reselling Russia oil that they purchased for a higher price.
“India....should....mandate retrospective security clearances on aircraft purchases, thereby enabling Indian airlines to claim force majeure and potentially cancel or defer large Boeing orders”
“Indian negotiators...growing list of Boeing (NYSE:BA) aircraft orders...$67 billion in combined orders from Air India, Akasa Air, and SpiceJet”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/indias-67-billion-boeing-bet-134449281.html
That 548,000 barrels is equal to about 5% of the amount Russia produces.
It is interesting that Europe is hedging its bets, by continuing its reliance on some of Russia's energy sales ( as well as some other commodities ).
One reads:
"The EU will gradually and effectively stop the import of Russian gas and oil by the end of 2027, under a legislative proposal put forward by the European Commission today. "Then there is this interesting, detailed article with much info:Commission proposes gradual phase-out of Russian gas and oil imports into the EU European Commisson, 16 June 2025.
More sources....
EU Proposes Ban on Russian Oil, Gas Imports by End 2027 Wall Street Journal, 17 June 2025.
EU plans gradual end to Russian gas and oil imports by 2027 Financial World, 17 June 2025.
EU proposes complete ban on Russian gas and oil imports by end of 2027 World ECR from Dow Jones, 19 June 2025.
EU sets 2027 as deadline to phase out all Russian energy Euro News, 6 May 2025.
EU proposes keeping gas storage filling goals until 2027 Reuters, 5 May 2025.
EU plans to stop Russian gas and oil imports by 2027 Yahoo Finance, 18 June 2025.
The US and Europe are still doing billions of dollars’ worth of business with Russia despite years of war CNN, 14 August 2025.More information in the above than in a five minute video from an American Ukrainian with a snappy title.
The economic war against Russia is driving Russia to China.
Obvious propaganda - use your BS filter. Russia is doing quite well - the war is over, only the dying continues.
We have had 3 years of “one more sanction will take them out” and “this new weapon will change the outcome”. Smell the coffee, NATO lost. The US should never have started this war in 2014 - Russia did nothing that the USA wouldn’t have done if China was building bases in Mexico.
In WW2, the US military bought most of US oil production.
Oil was an expense, not a revenue enhancer.
The State of Texas gets lots of revenue from oil, the State of Florida far less.
Yes - once again, excellent sleuthing on your part. This is just some blog being posted by a front for the Democrats.
Leftist propaganda and it’s posted in News/Activism when it should be in Bloggers/Personal.
The UkeMod must be on duty tonight.
Before the Trump Putin meeting in Alaska, Trump was putting pressure on India to cut Russian energy purchases. During this time, Russia continued attack Ukraine, including drone attacks on cities. Ukraine responded with drone attacks on Russian energy production, causing significant if short term disruption. Putin is walking back from whatever Trump thought he got out of Alaska. Putin is repeating demands that would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future invasion, while Russian diplomats and state TV continue their bluster.
The Donald does not like getting used. Just ask John Bolton.
Opec is now giving India a way out of buying Russian energy at all. India was already increasing energy agreements with Saudia Arabia. Last April both countries signed a joint agreement to build two refineries in India. This is concurrent to Russia is having increasing difficulty hiding its economic and banking woes, with banks giving those with good credit loans at 27% interest, and Russia spending 40% of its federal budget on the military. The Russian economy is approaching where the German and Japanese economies were in 1945, while the US and NATO nations are still just warming up.
While Ukraine is starting to mass produce the 3000 kilometer, 1,540 kilogram warhead, range Flamingo cruise missile. Obviously, this will target Russian energy production. Russia does not have unlimited air defenses to cover everything vital to its oil production. As we have seen in Ukraine, Russian surface to air defense have had a hard time living up to their marketing.
What this all means is behind the scenes, Trump is most definitely tightening the screws on Russia. Which also gives the Sunni OPEC nations a chance to stick it to Iran, a nice little bonus.
India has spent the last half century trying to build a firm relationship with the US. After Trump’s sanctions disguised as tariffs, India will never again trust the US.
Trump’s actions s have only served to demonstrate to the global south and non-linear states that Brics is important to them.
Biden put interest in Brics into overdrive by talk of stealing frozen assets, sanctions, but has put Brics expansion on steroids.
Trump doesn’t think things thru when the cameras are assembled as he formulated his own foreign policy, devoid if background, historic considerations or the consequences.
Trump was practically begging Putin to give him a way out of his own trapped diplomacy.
One man bull in the China shop... he will break things he cannot fix.
Russia has lost a lot of it’s young working people.
Fighting a war THEY started!
Anybody with half a brain knew Russia would not have been invaded. Even if their nukes didn’t work, nobody wants to test that idea, so the BS about boarder violations is not anything.
This is all about old men with egos!
I’m an old man and I’m smart enough to pick my battles carefully, so I always win.
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