Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

After the Spike: What Slow and Steady Depopulation Means For the World
Lithub ^ | August 8th, 2025 | Dean spears, Michael Geruso

Posted on 08/09/2025 10:30:21 PM PDT by Cronos

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-45 next last
The kindle version is available for $20. Though I think the physical version might be better due to the graphs. Will let you know

https://www.amazon.com/After-Spike-Population-Progress-People/dp/1668057336

1 posted on 08/09/2025 10:30:21 PM PDT by Cronos
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Cronos

Paul Ehrlich is still revered at Stanford University. He is considered a very wise man, even though every single thing he predicted is garbage.


2 posted on 08/09/2025 10:37:14 PM PDT by Ronaldus Magnus III (Do, or do not, there is no try )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cronos

Margaret Sanger left her mark.


3 posted on 08/09/2025 10:37:58 PM PDT by READINABLUESTATE (‘Never trust a man whose uncle was eaten by cannibals’)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cronos
Mud people breed like rabbits.

4 posted on 08/09/2025 10:40:39 PM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie ( O give thanks unto the Lord, for He is gracious, and his mercy endures forever. — Psalm 106)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: READINABLUESTATE

The drop in birth rates predate Sanger by nearly 2 centuries


5 posted on 08/09/2025 10:41:58 PM PDT by Cronos
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Governor Dinwiddie

“Mud people”

....... idiocracy


6 posted on 08/09/2025 11:05:56 PM PDT by 1of10 (be vigilant , be strong, be safe, be 1 of 10 .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Ronaldus Magnus III

Tip. I rem how, even into the 2000s we were worried about overpopulation


7 posted on 08/09/2025 11:25:49 PM PDT by Cronos
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: READINABLUESTATE

Mother nature?


8 posted on 08/09/2025 11:35:09 PM PDT by READINABLUESTATE (‘Never trust a man whose uncle was eaten by cannibals’)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Governor Dinwiddie

What are “mud people “?


9 posted on 08/09/2025 11:46:29 PM PDT by Cronos
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Cronos
I didn't see it pointed out in the article, but the "Spike" in global population was not caused by an increase in birthrates. As he points out, birthrates have fallen steadily insofar as we have data on the subject. The spike was driven by the dramatic improvement in infant and child mortality due to vaccines, improved medical care, nutrition and so on.

With fewer children dying, populations in Europe boomed ahead of the rest of the world. This provided a "surplus" population of young men in particular, that could be sent out to colonize and conquer around the world. Even when they lost an army here or there, it was soon replaced by new annual manpower. When Europe went through the two world wars and at the same time saw its birthrate drop, that power was lost. That is an underappreciated cause that played a major role in decolonization.

Meanwhile, as the European advances in medical care and related technology spread to the rest of the world, the pattern repeated. Asia, Africa and the Americas population's boomed. But many people (as can be seen from some comments here) imagine that would go on forever, when it was just a temporary phenomena that is already over, just as it ended in Europe. Birthrates are below replacement levels in all but a few places, and those will go negative soon enough.

Then what? No one really knows. We can surmise that humanity will not simply go extinct, but the question is, what will it take to increase birthrates? Will it take civilizational and technological collapse recreating conditions (for the survivors) similar to past centuries? Or is there a last drastic scenario that will play out?

10 posted on 08/09/2025 11:59:08 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: EnderWiggin1970
Correction: Or is there a LESS drastic scenario that will play out?
11 posted on 08/10/2025 12:01:45 AM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Cronos
So, here's my new crazy theory. What if they've intentionally given what is essentially sickle cell anemia to the majority of the world's population and, because it's based on DNA editing, it's passed on to offspring?

A quick AI question tells me that, in modern countries, the life average life expectancy for those with sickle cell anemia is almost exactly 50 years. That would certainly fix the social security obligation problem, wouldn't it?

"Sickle" sounds a bit like "spike", doesn't it?

12 posted on 08/10/2025 12:32:21 AM PDT by The Duke (Not without incident.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: EnderWiggin1970

A very good point about decolonisation.

My mind gets blown when I think that the population of the world in 500 BC was around 100 million people. 15 million in all of Europe, 70 million in Asia and about 7 million in Africa, and 5 million in the Americas.

And the population of the Achaemenid Persian empire was 50 million.

Nearly half of the WORLD’S population was ruled by Cyrus the great!!! Wow, a real king of kings.


13 posted on 08/10/2025 12:36:05 AM PDT by Cronos
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

I asked Chat GPT how many people existed 40k yrs ago:

https://chatgpt.com/share/68984bad-d738-8000-9ad4-0c1fbc8aae59


14 posted on 08/10/2025 12:37:18 AM PDT by beaversmom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: EnderWiggin1970

My opinion us that we will settle in at 500 million to 1 billion. Unless we start to colonize other planets


15 posted on 08/10/2025 12:38:01 AM PDT by Cronos
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Cronos
With the advent of AI replacing a lot of the human tasks isn't a reduction in the replacement rate a necessary phenomenon?

Do we really "need" an ever-increasing population? What will the US look like in the future with 400 million people, and many having nothing to do because AI is able do so much of what we needed people to do in previous generations, even at the "white collar" level? Sounds like a recipe for mass civil unrest?

For all of the grief Japan gets for their declining population and their highly restrictive immigration policies, they may be ahead of the curve here. I applaud their efforts to keep their nation culturally homogeneous. Perhaps they realize more than many do, that automation is likely inevitable in ways that we don't even realize. Just a thought.

16 posted on 08/10/2025 3:05:01 AM PDT by American Infidel (Instead of vilifying success, try to emulate it)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ronaldus Magnus III
Paul Ehrlich is still revered at Stanford University. He is considered a very wise man, even though every single thing he predicted is garbage.

——————————————-

Isn't it ironic that the very same people who scared the American people about the over population of the United States are the same ones who are importing tens of millions of illiterate, low functioning illegal aliens from the third world

17 posted on 08/10/2025 3:10:59 AM PDT by rdcbn1 (..when poets buy guns, tourist season is over................Walter R. Mead.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Cronos

This article failed to mention some very important data. Some countries are still growing in population. Since they are predominantly Islamic this means that religion is going to be pushing to invade countries with fewer and fewer people to resist them.

18 posted on 08/10/2025 3:30:22 AM PDT by Nateman (Democrats did not strive for fraud friendly voting merely to continue honest elections.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cronos

To the population-obsessed cabal: we destroyed your silly little monument in Georgia.

The one telling us your plan to kill 13 out of 14 people on earth.

You people are stupid.


19 posted on 08/10/2025 3:33:21 AM PDT by reasonisfaith
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: beaversmom

Then there’s the calculations dating to around 75,000 years ago when, after the supervolcano blast at Tova (near Krakatoa) it’s believed there were less than 5,000 “modern” humans left living.

Only the best and the brightest.


20 posted on 08/10/2025 4:13:40 AM PDT by normbal (normbal. Non-native Tennessean.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-45 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson