Posted on 08/04/2025 6:17:11 AM PDT by karpov
‘How many people do you employ this month?” might sound like the kind of question an employer can easily answer, but it’s not. Especially for large businesses, the exact number of employees in a given month is hard to pin down. The media report layoffs and hires in round numbers, but for calculating total employment in the country, it really matters whether “500” means 478 or 523, because those discrepancies multiplied across millions of businesses make a huge difference.
Within government, Donald Trump’s appointee as BLS commissioner, William Beach, has been a leader in calling for modernizing the surveys that statistical agencies rely on. As commissioner from 2019 to 2023, Beach asked Congress for several million dollars in funding — peanuts, in federal budget terms — to redo the survey along the lines of other countries such as the U.K., which now uses an online-first methodology. It never came to be.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics sends a survey to employers each month to figure out how many people they employ, as part of the jobs report. In the good old days before Covid, that survey had a response rate of about 60 percent. From respondents’ guesses about how many people they employ, the BLS had to guess about how many people are employed in this nation of 340 million souls.
That’s a really hard job. The BLS employs some of the best statisticians in the world, and they happen to be pretty good at it, often getting within a tenth of a percent of the final workforce numbers.
Then, Covid happened, and the establishment survey response rate dropped like a rock. It hasn’t recovered and currently sits at 43 percent. What was already hard at a 60 percent response rate is now even harder.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Shoot the messenger and the rest of the crew hears the message. then shoot the rest of them one by one.
Trump Is Shooting the LIAR...
He’s not shooting the messenger. If her numbers were anywhere near correct for the first two months, we’d have lower interest rates. The failure of the BLS probably cost the U.S. government $700 billion, and the global economy $trillions. Someone needed to be accountable.
Really could care less what the National Rino has to say.
Many NR articles can be summed up as, Trump is always wrong, and globalism is always the way.
Tyler Cowen doesn't explain why he's writing for a bunch of anti-Trump clowns.
Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
She’s not doing her job. If companies are not turning in their data, then her job is to find out why and correct it, expose it. Another mess in another agency of this government. These people get paid huge salaries with great benefits and get worse every day.
During Obama, the BLS reported fake higher numbers then revised them down the next month.
For Trump they do the opposite.
The BLS is a propaganda machine for the democraps!
I never did trust any Government “ statistics”. I found it much more revealing by looking around my front yard.
Jobs are plentiful in my area, and groceries and inflation is much, much higher than what they tell me and want me to believe. They lie.
They are explaining it as a summation of rounding errors. But how often are rounded number so one-sidedly rounded up, or rounded down, as opposed to being almost equally balanced? Of course the article won’t say, because it’s part of the gaslight media.
Using surveys is ridiculous.
Everyone is on electronic payrolls these days. It seems it should be easy to poll those systems.
But, calling companies and talking to some clerk is absurd.
And if you think that is bad…wait until they hear how the unemployment rates/participation rates are determined.
It’s too bad that it’s a “hard” job.
1. The stats have been revised too often
2. Biden appointee.
The default position is that Biden employees and appointees are disloyal to Trump. The default position is that Biden supporters are immoral and more susceptible to corruption than Trump loyalists.
News flash: Biden holdovers can do harm at DOJ, FBI, CIA and even at BLS. Trump has had enough trouble with GOP “loyalists”
No hand wringing is necessary. Otherwise why not keep the Biden holdovers.
I am sorry, but this is an article in a publication that has become a Deep State apologist. In said article, an apologist proceeds to apologize.
Boo Hoo, the BLS has a really really really hard job. They do their best. They do their best to be sure to benefit Joe and Kamala when they are running and “revise” later. But of what revisions they are!!! If doing one’s best is over estimating by one million the jobs that are created, then please just don’t do at all.
If they have to constantly revise, then that is a TACIT admission that they are guessing in the first place. Fine, if you can’t express labor stats with more certainty, then either don’t or wait until you have the data. If the data you are getting isn’t reliable, then figure out a better way to obtain the data that is.
But see, that is anathema to Deep Staters. They want their power. They want to be the arbiter of what “is.” They are not about doing a job. They are about keeping a job and making sure they use the influence that comes with the title.
Hundreds of thousands of revisions. And how many know these are not really collected jobs numbers simply being reported. The employment numbers are SURVEY data and not hard numbers at all. It’s more like a poll than anything else.
So, do I trust enemy pollsters?
It was a LOCKDOWN!
The numbers are based on a “send it in anytime” survey and not actual payroll changes.
He just fired the same person that inflated pre-election employment numbers by over 800,000 to help Kamala Harris win in November. And after Trump won, the previous 8 months numbers were revised downward by 800,000+ jobs. SHE was purely POLITICAL.
Do they ever post “We were wrong…. Trump was right” articles? Because there must be endless examples.
Trump needs someone he can trust. Why in the world should he trust this person. Id bet theyve seen her cooking the books for Biden and now worry she’ll cook them against him. Look how quickly the media seized on the 70k jobs number…. Like clockwork. Maybe its accurate , maybe its not. Thats the point.
Too much funny business with the numbers released and then revisions - clearly political.
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