Trump's tariff gamble pays off as US economic growth crushes expectations

FOX Business ^ | 7/30/2025 | Not Attributed

[SaxxonWoods]

The Big Money Show' panel discusses the Fed's interest rate plan and the success of President Donald Trump's tariff strategy as more economic wins roll in for the nation.

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TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: freetraitorssad; randfansad; rinotraitorssad; tariffs

[SaxxonWoods]

Paraphrasing commenter: "It's really hard for people to admit they are wrong, and when it comes to Trump it's hard for everybody."

[Vermont Lt]

This was predictable. Not because Trump was right or wrong. It was predictable because businesses operate in their best financial interest.

In Q1 American companies loaded up their inventories with imported products or materials they feared would increase because if impending tariffs. These expenditures were not counted in the Q1 GDP. It was the primary reason it was lower than expected.

in Q2 those imported products or materials were added to inventory or used to manufacture goods in the US. This activity (purely an accounting action) would be reflected in the GDP. Hence..it would pump it up a bit.

The real test is going to be in Q4. By that time the tariffs will have been in place for a full quarter. Manufacturing will have adjusted to either higher priced imports, or more products will be exported. Capital expenditures will be higher because of the BBB and the ability to depreciate them in year 1. Many companies were holding off on that until after the bill was signed—even though they are back dated.

So, the gain in Q2 was going to happen. Q3 will likely be middling. Q4 should show some very good growth because of the resolved trade deals and capital expenditures.

[Marko413]

Almost sounds like we have a president in office that understands business and economics.

[Vermont Lt]

Honestly it sounds like we have a business media that never took accounting or macro economics. This is really basic stuff.

But yeah…it appears to be resolving itself well.

[ptsal]

Why would the journalist choose the word “gamble?” Perhaps, just perhaps, President Trump has a better grasp of economics and human behavior than the lame-steam media.

[Governor Dinwiddie]

On his last show, Bill Maher apologized for being critical of President Trumps economic plan.
Maher said he was amazed by how booming the economy is, a real mea culpa.

[SaxxonWoods]

I saw that, and I give him credit for saying it.

[FreedomNotSafety]

Wow crushed! Growth was barely above inflation and in a prosperous economy would have been mediocre. The fact that it CRUSHED EXPECTATIONS just shows how low the bar was.

Trump has played his hand decently but this growth was not great. The fed still takes and spends too much and the number of people employed at real private sector jobs is abysmal.

[SaxxonWoods]

“Why would the journalist choose the word “gamble?”

It’s much easier to intimate that Trump was reckless and got lucky than to give Trump credit for anything.

[dragnet2]

Where are those people on Free Republic who were warning everyone about tariffs? They seem as rare as public pay phones now.

[rktman]

Stoopid tariffs. We tried to warn y’al........oh. Derp Dee derp!

[SaxxonWoods]

Our rates are about double those of our International competition. This causes investments to flow away from the USA. 3.0% Growth was a surprise, higher than expected.

Many Fed watchers say Powell is always late when he lowers. He wants inflation at target. Watchers say the target has to be anticipated or it will overshoot, there a lag between lowering and seeing the effects of same. The last time he lowered, it was by 50 basis points. He was playing catch-up.

I hope the difference between the USA and European rates doesn’t widen.

[ripnbang]

The Panicans? Oh, they’ll be back when Trump does something else bold.

[SaxxonWoods]

Yes, very good catch on that inventory issue. Distortions like you mention can make for mistakes.

[Old West Conservative]

The announced 3% increase was adjusted for inflation

Note that the release says “real GDP”, i.e., inflation adjusted.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-advance-estimate

[Blueflag]

So ... why is the market down again today???

[Blueflag]

So ... why is the market down again today???

[shelterguy]

“””Where are those people on Free Republic who were warning everyone about tariffs?”””

They are huddling together trying to get their Epstein talking points ready to go.

[SaxxonWoods]

I don’t care why it’s down, daily movements in the market are meaningless except to day traders. What I own didn’t go down much and everything takes a rest. The market has been on a tear since the recent downturn in April, and I’ve hit multiple new all-time record highs since then, the last one being yesterday. I’m 65% in T-Bills and most of my stocks pay dividends, price movement in them is mostly irrelevant. I’ve owned Energy Transfer for 6 years, from $17 to 5$ and it’s now around $18. Most houses have a target price of around $22 on it. It pays a 7.42% dividend, that’s what I care about, not its daily price movement. I’m a very conservative investor because I’m old, all I need to do is beat/meet inflation and my heirs will be fine.

The most interesting thing that happened today was, 2 Fed governors voted against Powell, voting to lower the rate. That level of dissent hasn’t happened in 32 years. Even the FED is having trouble figuring out what to do.

[catnipman]

“Why would the journalist choose the word “gamble?””

uh, it’s deliberate because they want to imply that it was just dumb luck that things worked out the way they did, and that it was NOT because Trump knew what he was doing all along ...