Posted on 07/14/2025 10:06:31 AM PDT by Kazan
President Donald Trump was reportedly caught “flat-footed” when the Pentagon abruptly announced it was freezing shipments of critical weapons to Ukraine, including Patriot missile interceptors, precision-guided GMLRS, and artillery rounds.
The rationale for halting shipments of defensive weapons to Ukraine stems from a review that found that the U.S. only has about 25 percent of the Patriot interceptors needed for all Defense Department military plans.
Yet just days later, Trump reversed course. “They’re getting hit very hard now,” he said. “We’re going to send some more weapons — defensive weapons primarily.”
The rapid pivot back to arms transfers to Ukraine illustrates just how deeply embedded interventionist reflexes remain not just in Congress and the Pentagon, but even within Trump’s own orbit.
US Running Low
At the center of this internal tug-of-war is Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, a leading voice for a more restrained, realist approach to America’s military posture, which is a position that has reportedly frustrated some hawkish members within the Trump administration.
Colby has warned that U.S. weapons stockpiles are running low, defense manufacturing is lagging behind adversaries, and that it is time for Europe to take primary responsibility for Ukraine, while America focuses on shoring up its limited resources by preparing for a far more dangerous geopolitical challenge: China.
A recent analysis by Foreign Affairs aligns with Colby’s assessment, stating that the United States “has low stockpiles of munitions, its ships and planes are older than China’s, and its industrial base lacks the capacity to regenerate these assets. In war games that simulate a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Washington runs out of key munitions within weeks.”
The U.S. Air Force’s fleet is showing its age, with planes averaging 32 years old, and some exceeding 50 years. Developing new major weapons platforms like these can take more than eight years, however if the F-22 Raptor is any indication, the process could take more than 15 years.
The U.S. Navy is in an equally perilous situation. Though the average U.S. naval vessel is 19 years old, some vessels like cruisers are pushing almost 30 years old. To meet future demand, the Navy may require extending the lives of some non-nuclear surface ships to over 50 years old.
In stark contrast, 70 percent of China’s naval ships have been launched since 2010. China’s annual shipbuilding capacity is an astounding 26 million tons, which is 370 times greater than the United States’ capacity of 70,000 tons. The U.S. industrial capacity is so limited that it cannot even produce a single 100,000-ton Ford-class aircraft carrier annually.
Still, Washington clings to a WWII-era fantasy, believing that it can arm the world while neglecting its own arsenal.
Two Systems in Low Supply
Two systems that are in high demand and low supply are the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAM) that Ukraine can’t get enough of, and the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators that were recently used in coordination with Israel against Iranian nuclear sites.
It takes around two years to manufacture and deploy a NASAM battery, which is capable of launching 72 missiles into the sky at once and is jointly produced by Norwegian Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace and U.S. RTX Corporation.
Why so long? While Kongsberg, like most Western defense firms, designs and assembles its weapons systems, it doesn’t manufacture most of the components in house. Unlike the mass production lines that made the weapons used to fight World War II, more than 1,500 suppliers across two continents contribute to the weapons produced at just one Kongsberg factory, with the U.S. defense contractor RTX supplying the radar and the actual missiles.
In terms of the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP), the situation is even worse.
Before Trump’s airstrikes on Iran, the United States possessed only 20 MOP bombs, however 14 of these were expended on two targets in Iran, leaving only six. According to National Interest, it took more than a decade to produce the initial 20 GBU-57s, and their production line has been closed while the Pentagon currently awaits bids from American defense contractors for a Next Generation Penetrator (NGP) contract.
Embracing Realism
The truth is simple: the United States is under no obligation to indefinitely bankroll Ukraine’s war effort or come to Israel’s defense, especially not at the expense of our own military readiness.
These weapon systems are not only costly, but limited in their ability to be mass produced, and should be reserved first and foremost for the defense of American troops in any future conflict. It’s long overdue for the United States to reevaluate its foreign policy and embrace a path of prudent foreign policy realism, while focusing on rearmament through reindustrialization.
This is not isolationism, it’s prioritization. A foreign policy rooted in realism begins by recognizing limits: of production, of attention, and perhaps most of all, of obligation.
Rebuilding American strength starts at home, not in Kyiv, not in Tel Aviv, and not in another foreign aid or weapons package.
America will not compete in the 21st century if it’s stuck in a 20th-century mindset.
Sound to me like an opportunity to increase the manufacturing sector and add skilled jobs for Americans
It isn’t our job to protect all of them. It is their job, just like protecting ourselves used to be a top priority.
” In war games that simulate a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Washington runs out of key munitions within weeks.”
Taiwan has lots of foreign exchange, and technical know-how.
Taiwan has to defend itself, as the US can’t risk getting into a war with Red China.
See post 12.
“So lets ramp up production of important weapons. Do this at warp speed.”
I trust Hegseth is on the task.
“The NASAMS® system is a highly adaptable combat-proven medium-range air defense solution.
“NASAMS consists of the AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel® radar, Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace’s Fire Distribution Center, launcher, and Raytheon’s suite of effectors, including the AMRAAM® missile, AMRAAM-ER® missile and AIM-9X® missile.”
https://www.rtx.com/raytheon/what-we-do/integrated-air-and-missile-defense/nasams
“The AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel® radar is a radar that alerts front-line air-defense weapons whenever it sees hostile planes, helicopters, drones or missiles.”
“Sentinel is a three-dimensional radar, meaning it reports the range, bearing and elevation of the objects it is tracking.”
“More than 300 Sentinel radars are deployed around the world by the U.S. Army and allied armed forces.”
https://www.rtx.com/raytheon/what-we-do/land/sentinel-radar
RTX Businesses
Collins Aerospace
Pratt & Whitney
Raytheon
The more weapons we sell the more we can make and cheaper, and the closer ties we build with friends and allies.
The more countries that see them excel in combat, then the more demand for our weapons, which means more jobs, plants, and production, and cheaper per unit costs and the more money and motivation for research and development.
The more shared equipment and coordinated capabilities with our allies also means smoother teamwork in war and more foreign weapon stocks to draw from if we need them sent back to us, for example in a draining war against China.
You can’t believe much that Ukraine says. They are known to lie just as much as Russia lies. And the globalists then spread the lies like it is truth.
Ukraine didn’t turn into Pollyanna overnight. They have no scruples killing innocent people either. Just listen to Lindsay.
Ukraine lies to the media so that media will lie to the people to justify ripping off US taxpayers for more money and weapons. The cycle appears to be neverending.
“AMRAAM is an advanced radar-guided, fire-and-forget air-to-air missile carried by F-15, F-16, F/A-18, F-22, and F-35 fighters. Japan has had AMRAAMs in its arsenal dating back to the 1990s, and as recently as last December signed a $224 million deal to acquire 120 AIM-120C AMRAAMs. Under the new agreement, Japan will be licensed to produce AMRAAMs itself. It remains uncertain whether Japan-made AMRAAMs will be solely for domestic use or might be available for export.”
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/japan-steps-up-missile-production-in-deal-with-u-s/
Back in the Soviet Union, they were manufacturing bombers and tanks. They can't even do that today.
Not being a party to the specific arrangements with contractors and the government where complex weapons systems are manufactured, I would imagine it’s in everyone’s interest to mitigate the drawbacks and slowdowns by expediting data rights, open architecture designs and licensing agreements to speed things up while still incentivizing innovation. It always comes down to will and the best most talented people.
We can rebuild, probably will take us 20 years to do so, or we can buy from China and Russia.
And how long do you think it would take to do that? Years!
“You can’t believe much that Ukraine says.”
Or what Russia says either.
Neither side is nice. However, I think most Americans favor an independent, democratic Ukraine.
Such an independent, democratic Ukraine will need to not be a fundamental threat to Russia, or the Russians will seek to topple it.
That means:
1. neutrality
2. no NATO membership
3. no long-range missiles
4. no nuclear weapons or nuclear weapons development
5. no foreign troops in areas Ukraine is to retain or reacquire
6. Ukraine to have unlimited defensive means (troops, tanks, artillery, anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, anti-ballistic missile missiles) so Ukraine can defend itself and clause 5 is possible
If “the world” would simply PAY FOR the protection we have provided...
...Japan first acquired Patriot missile interceptors nearly two decades ago. The PAC-3 is crucial to the Japan Self-Defense Force’s missile defense strategy.
In December, Tokyo changed its defense export regulations to allow domestically produced PAC-3 missiles to be exported to the U.S...
“Not being a party to the specific arrangements with contractors and the government where complex weapons systems are manufactured, I would imagine it’s in everyone’s interest to mitigate the drawbacks and slowdowns by expediting data rights, open architecture designs and licensing agreements to speed things up while still incentivizing innovation. It always comes down to will and the best most talented people.”
The US government has been buying complex weapons systems for 85 years. It should have mastered the necessary laws, regulations and contract language.
WIKI
Following is the process a PAC-3 firing battery uses to engage a single tactical ballistic missile with two PAC-3 missiles:
A missile is detected by the AN/MPQ-65 radar. The radar reviews the speed, altitude, behavior, and radar cross-section of the target. If this data lines up with the discrimination parameters set into the system, the missile is presented on the screen of the operator as a ballistic missile target.
In the AN/MSQ-104 Engagement Control Station, the TCO reviews the speed, altitude, and trajectory of the track and then authorizes engagement. Upon authorizing engagement, the TCO instructs his TCA to bring the system’s launchers into “operate” mode from “standby” mode. The engagement will take place automatically at the moment the computer defines the parameters that ensure the highest probability of kill.
The system computer determines which of the battery’s launchers have the highest probability of kill and selects them to fire. Two missiles are launched 4.2 seconds apart in a “ripple”.
The AN/MPQ-65 radar continues tracking the target and uploads intercept information to the PAC-3 missiles which are now outbound to intercept.
Upon reaching its terminal homing phase, the Ka band active radar seeker in the nose of the PAC-3 missile acquires the inbound ballistic missile. This radar selects the radar return most likely to be the warhead of the incoming missile and directs the interceptor towards it.
The ACMs (attitude control motors) of the PAC-3 missile fire to precisely align the missile on the interception trajectory.
The interceptor flies straight through the warhead of the inbound ballistic missile, detonating it and destroying the missile.
The second missile locates any debris which may be a warhead and attacks in a similar manner.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot
It would be okay if they repaid us, but they think we are the golden goose with endless riches. What a joke! If they cannot pay for our stuff, then that is on them. This might seem harsh, but has any other country stepped up to help us pay down our debt? Are those crickets I hear???
Certainly not if we’re just going to give it away!
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