Posted on 06/21/2025 7:03:06 AM PDT by texas booster
With the Israel-Iran war stretching into its second week, commentators from all sides of the political arena have been delivering their optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic opinions on the conflict.
Here are the facts:
The war is going in Israel's favor. There’s a 50-50 chance of regime change, but only a 25% chance the new leaders will be better than Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
00:00 Introduction to the Iranian-Israeli Conflict
00:19 Optimistic Scenario
01:32 Pessimistic Scenario
04:57 Realistic Scenario
07:59 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, indeed. Prof Hanson gives his ideas on what may happen next in this edition of the Iran/Israeli conflict. My money is on G_d.
FR Index of his articles: Victor Davis Hanson on FR
Town Hall: Victor Davis Hanson on Town Hall
American Greatness: Victor Davis Hanson on American Greatness
His website: Victor Davis Hanson
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Those odds are the reason the United States needs to let Israel handle this. The Arab States need to step up. I see no indication that the Iranian people are doing anything close to 1979. Iran may be turn into as much of a failed state as other American disasters as Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Yemen and even Iraq. I wish the regime would be eliminated along with the nuke facilities but NOBODY can predict the outcome when Iran and Israel end the race of the missiles.
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25% of 50% — or 25% of 100%?
Doubt any therein who identify as “Persian” want “Arabs” to have much to do with defining their future. Same is likely with many others of the ethnic minorities within “Iran.” “Jewish” influence may also not be welcome, although “Persian + Jewish” combo has very long history, up until the status quo government.
The secular Persian is better than the Arab or Islamic option, whatever that might mean.
Done!
I have same question. He doesn’t specify.
Systematically taking out Revolutionary Guard commanders and ayatollahs increases the chances that the new regime won’t consist of Revolutionary Guard commanders and ayatollahs.
Whether secular rule is achievable is unclear. But then the Shah's grip on power seemed strong before France sent over one elderly religious nut job. Shah may not have been super popular, but probably was more popular than the current regime is now. His modernization secular policies were somewhat popular outside the hardcore Shia. Had the Shah been as oppressive as his accusers claimed, and had the US had someone less pathetic than Carter to defend him, he was better equipped to fend off the zealots than the current government, post-Israeli bombardment, is to potentially fight off its young opponents. I figure the rank and file of the IRGC are with the regime and the installed leadership of the regular army will give at least lip service to the regime. Will the bulk of the army follow those orders or would it turn towards alternative leadership remains to be seen and is the major outstanding unknown. The regular army is big, significantly bigger than the IRGC. Israel hasn't attacked it much and Crown Prince is wooing it.
In 1980 nearly all the Iranians voted for the Islamic Republic ran by the mullahs. Two generations since then have become adults under that system. I think it now their way of life and few are willing to oppose it, fearing their lives. Iran will never change, the system is too ingrained.
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