Israel sees no instability, cracks in Iranian regime's control amid IDF operations, officials say

One week since Israel launched strikes on Iran, there are still no signs of cracks or instability within the Iranian regime, three Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post on Friday.

“There are currently no indications that the central government in Tehran is losing control — quite the opposite. The Iranian regime appears to be tightening its grip,” the three officials said.

Dr. Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), is not surprised. “It’s not surprising that no cracks are visible,” he told the Post.

“Most Iranians are hostile to the regime and oppose it, but there is a sense of national solidarity at the moment. Right now, the people are focused on one thing: survival.

“When they see Israeli strikes causing casualties and destruction — even if the regime is unpopular — the immediate threat is seen as Israel. That’s why people are rallying around the flag. I emphasize — not around the regime, but most of their anger is currently directed at Israel.”

While toppling the ayatollahs' regime is not an official objective of Israel in this conflict, senior Israeli officials — including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz — have recently stated that one of Israel’s goals is to destabilize the government in Tehran. In recent days, Israel has also struck targets described by officials as “serving the Iranian regime.” Among the targets were police headquarters, state television and radio stations, the Interior Ministry, and the Intelligence and Defense ministries.

On Friday, Katz announced that Israel would begin targeting facilities of the Basij militia — a paramilitary force under Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that is used to suppress domestic protests.

“I have instructed the military to intensify strikes on regime targets in Tehran in order to destabilize the regime and increase deterrence in response to the missile fire on Israeli cities,” Katz said after a meeting with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and other senior officials.

“We must hit all symbols of power and the regime’s mechanisms for suppressing the population, and we must also force the evacuation of large segments of Tehran’s civilian population — all to undermine the regime.”

‘Mass protest movements’ could emerge in Iran after the war Despite the fact that the Iranian regime currently seems to be consolidating power, Dr. Zimmt says he remains optimistic that in the medium to long term — once the war ends — the Iranian public will begin to question how the country reached this point, and their frustration will turn against the regime.

“As long as the war continues, you can indeed weaken the regime — damage command and control centers, destroy headquarters, eliminate intelligence figures — and over time, that could undermine the regime’s centers of power,” Dr. Zimmt explained. “That’s important because once the balance of power shifts between regime critics and the regime itself, there will be a real chance for change. A mass protest movement confronting a vulnerable regime — one less willing or able to defend itself — could emerge after the war.”

An interesting scenario is, what if the 16th century Safavid forced conversions of the Iranian people from Sunni to 12er Shis had not taken place, but, what if they had converted to Zoroastrianism?

I like to play that alternative history scenario in my head as

Shah Ismail I, founder of the Safavid dynasty (1501–1736), declares Zoroastrianism the state religion of Persia instead of Twelver Shi’a Islam. Motivated by a desire to unify Persia under a distinct cultural and religious identity, Ismail seeks to revive the ancient faith tied to Persia’s pre-Islamic heritage. By invoking Zoroastrianism’s historical significance, the Safavids consolidate power, appealing to Persian nationalism while distinguishing themselves from the Sunni Ottoman Empire and the Mughal Empire.

1501–1524: Shah Ismail I enforces Zoroastrianism through a combination of persuasion, patronage of fire temples, and selective conversion of elites. Zoroastrian priests (mobeds) are elevated to advisory roles, replacing Shi’a clerics. The Safavids revive ancient texts like the Avesta, standardizing rituals and promoting Zoroastrian festivals such as Nowruz and Mehregan as national celebrations.

Fire temples become centers of learning, blending Persian and Hellenistic traditions. The Safavids sponsor translations of Zoroastrian texts into Persian, fostering a renaissance of pre-Islamic Persian identity.

Under Shah Abbas I (1588–1629), the Safavid Empire strengthens its Zoroastrian identity while maintaining diplomatic and trade relations with Europe and the Mughal Empire. European travelers, fascinated by Persia’s “ancient” religion, document Zoroastrian practices, increasing Western interest in Persian culture. The Safavids trade silk and textiles, using wealth to fund grand fire temples and infrastructure in Isfahan.

The Safavid Empire declines due to internal mismanagement and invasions by Afghan tribes. However, Zoroastrianism’s deep cultural roots prevent a complete collapse. The succeeding Afsharid and Zand dynasties adopt Zoroastrianism to maintain continuity, though regional warlords occasionally challenge central authority. Persia remains a cultural hub, with Zoroastrianism shaping a distinct national identity

The Qajars inherit a Zoroastrian Persia and face pressures from European imperialism. Zoroastrianism’s emphasis on good thoughts, words, and deeds inspires reforms, with rulers promoting education and infrastructure. Persia avoids the religious schisms that fueled sectarian conflicts in our timeline, focusing instead on a unified national identity.

Inspired by Zoroastrian principles of justice, Persian intellectuals push for a constitutional monarchy. The revolution succeeds, establishing a parliamentary system that balances monarchical power with elected representation. Zoroastrianism’s non-hierarchical clergy structure encourages a more pluralistic political discourse compared to theocratic tendencies in our timeline.

Zoroastrian Iran positions itself as a neutral power, balancing relations with the U.S. and Soviet Union. Iran’s cultural prestige, rooted in its ancient religion, attracts global interest, with fire temples becoming UNESCO heritage sites. Iran avoids the 1979 Islamic Revolution, as there is no Ayatollah-led movement, and its stable monarchy evolves into a constitutional democracy.

Zoroastrianism’s emphasis on environmental stewardship influences Iran’s policies, leading to early adoption of renewable energy and conservation programs. Iran’s fire temples and cultural festivals draw millions of tourists, boosting the economy.

Iran maintains stable relations with Israel, focusing on economic cooperation and cultural exchange. Iran’s Zoroastrian identity fosters tolerance, attracting global diaspora communities (including Parsis from India) to invest in Iran. The country leads in renewable energy and cultural preservation, with Isfahan and Yazd as global centers of Zoroastrian scholarship.

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