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Divorce, Family Arrangements, and Children's Adult Outcomes
NBER ^ | May 2025 | Andrew C. Johnston, Maggie R. Jones & Nolan G. Pope

Posted on 05/12/2025 6:06:46 AM PDT by karpov

Nearly a third of American children experience parental divorce before adulthood. To understand its consequences, we use linked tax and Census records for over 5 million children to examine how divorce affects family arrangements and children's long-term outcomes. Following divorce, parents move apart, household income falls, parents work longer hours, families move more frequently, and households relocate to poorer neighborhoods with less economic opportunity. This bundle of changes in family circumstances suggests multiple channels through which divorce may affect children's development and outcomes. In the years following divorce, we observe sharp increases in teen births and child mortality. To examine long-run effects on children, we compare siblings with different lengths of exposure to the same divorce. We find that parental divorce reduces children's adult earnings and college residence while increasing incarceration, mortality, and teen births. Changes in household income, neighborhood quality, and parent proximity account for 25 to 60 percent of these divorce effects.


TOPICS: Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: divorce

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1 posted on 05/12/2025 6:06:46 AM PDT by karpov
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To: karpov
This has been known for many years, divorce damages children (illegitimacy is worse).
I understand why they included income in their negative effects but in other studies parental income has negligible effects on child outcomes. The most important factors are mother care and fathering.
2 posted on 05/12/2025 6:11:50 AM PDT by Varda
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To: karpov

The old adage “Correlation does not imply causation” applies.


3 posted on 05/12/2025 6:11:50 AM PDT by House Atreides (I’m now ULTRA-MAGA-PRO-MAX)
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To: Varda

I have zero doubt that poor family circumstances can have negative effects on many children.


4 posted on 05/12/2025 6:17:12 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: karpov

Easy divorce was the first step along the path that led to gay marriage and even the “trans” issue. We need marriage as a strong institution.


5 posted on 05/12/2025 6:20:01 AM PDT by Opinionated Blowhard (When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.)
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To: karpov

Who initiates most divorces?


6 posted on 05/12/2025 6:20:16 AM PDT by packagingguy
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To: karpov

The consequences are also physiological as well. A girl without a father will experience puberty and menstruation up to six months earlier than other girls. They also tend to have a higher BMI


7 posted on 05/12/2025 6:22:09 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: packagingguy

Well, now, that would be the lady folk, now wouldn’t it? ‘Round 80% of the time, if what I’ve read is true. From my observations and personal experience, I’d say that sounds about right.


8 posted on 05/12/2025 6:25:03 AM PDT by drwoof
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To: 1Old Pro

It depends what they’re measuring. Negative outcomes I’ve seen (from studies done years ago) are incarceration, out of wedlock births and lack of education. Children of poor families which are intact (mother, father in the home) have succesful outcomes by those metrics.


9 posted on 05/12/2025 6:26:15 AM PDT by Varda
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To: Varda
It depends what they’re measuring.

And there are numerous variables. Like intact families being poor parents.

10 posted on 05/12/2025 6:27:42 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: 1Old Pro
That's the thing. All these studies are looking at populations in general. Yes there are always exceptions but generally the outcomes are the outcomes.

For instance, these studies always show illegitimate birth as a characteristic of prison populations in America. Does that mean that no person of illegitimate birth can stay out of prison? Of course not.

11 posted on 05/12/2025 6:34:35 AM PDT by Varda
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To: packagingguy

Women, of course. But I don’t really blame them. I blame the state for allowing it. They literally empower bad actors.

FWIW, my wife of 20 years divorced me in 1997 “without cause”. She just didn’t want to be married any more. We had three daughters, 10, 13 and 16 at the time.

Comically (sort of) she was part of 6 (IIRC) “Christian” women that would have “ladies night out” every month or two. All of them ended up divorcing their husbands, and they all used the same attorney.

Turns out this was when “repressed memories” was becoming a big thing. There was so much overt bull**it being thrown around that it became, for me, laughable.

BTW, I met my current wife two months after my then wife kicked me out and we’ve been in marital bliss ever since. And it only grows stronger.

Also, I have a VERY strong relationship with my daughters and grandchildren - and my current wife was a HUGE help with those kids. The only one that is a bit of a problem is the autistic one. But key words, “a bit”.

As much as I dearly love my wife, this divorce should not have been allowed, and I fought it at first. My ex has admitted to her daughters that it was a mistake. Yeah. Duh. I tried to explain it to her but it was like trying to have a reasonable discussion with leftists on Bluesky - before they block you. No reason or accountability. Eventually you have to leave them to their own devices.


12 posted on 05/12/2025 6:38:13 AM PDT by cuban leaf (2024 is going to be one for the history books, like 1939. And 2025 will be more so, like 1940-1945.)
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To: karpov

Psychology wrecked everything.


13 posted on 05/12/2025 7:05:35 AM PDT by yldstrk (Nothing like the truth)
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To: yldstrk
Psychology wrecked everything.

Both unconsciously and deliberately. Dysfunction has been a bonanza for psychologists.

14 posted on 05/12/2025 7:13:53 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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To: cuban leaf

There’s an enormous financial incentive for women to get divorced.

Especially when they get custody of the kids and the father has little time with them. This situation ups child support payments.

What’s a bit odd is the deep South is the absolute worst place for a divorced father who wants to be around his kids. The chance of him getting split custody is about nil unless he pays off the ex for it.

Many states in the North and West mandate 50/50 custody absent some other factor like drug abuse. Some of the first states to do so were blue states.

This is one area in which Republicans have been worse than Democrats.


15 posted on 05/12/2025 7:16:04 AM PDT by packagingguy
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To: packagingguy

I suppose I should be thankful it happened to me in Seattle. 😎

Personally, I would very much like to see an end to “no fault” divorce. As I’ve said to people contemplating divorce since I was in my 20’s, “What part of in sickness and in health...until death do us part” did you not understand?

I compare marriage to owning a car. Imagine a world where you get one car, and once it hits the junk yard, you’ll never have a car again - vs a world where you can trade your car in for a new one every few years.

In which car are you going to meticulously maintain your vehicle and avoid taking it off road?

People think that the key to saving their marriage is the other person changing, yet the only person you can change is yourself. Comically, I was changing like crazy and actually learned a lot and was applying it (but too late, apparently) - and my current wife reaped the benefits of what I learned.👍

27 years of absolute bliss. The only time we ever fought was when having to deal with my ex involving the kids. But that was long ago and, fortunately, very rare. We’re both 71 and both married to our best friend.


16 posted on 05/12/2025 7:26:54 AM PDT by cuban leaf (2024 is going to be one for the history books, like 1939. And 2025 will be more so, like 1940-1945.)
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To: packagingguy

I’m also convinced there are two things a man should not do before the age of 35:
1. Buy a motorcycle
2. Get married

I was looking for completely different qualities in a woman when I was 43 than when I was 21. And it paid off in spades.


17 posted on 05/12/2025 7:28:11 AM PDT by cuban leaf (2024 is going to be one for the history books, like 1939. And 2025 will be more so, like 1940-1945.)
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To: cuban leaf

I think one of the issues about getting married is that there are some women who want to have a wedding more than they want to have a marriage. Women who want a sugar daddy shouldn’t get married, and men who only want a mommy shouldn’t get married either.

In some ways, dating and courtship is like (or should be) similar to a job interview. It’s a lifelong commitment (or should be). Are you both ready to take care of each other if and when that situation happens?

People aren’t always as discerning about marriage as they should be.

I’m happily married to my college sweetheart for 40 years now, and counting. We aren’t just husband and wife; we are best friends, too. And yes, we do take care of each other.


18 posted on 05/12/2025 8:45:31 AM PDT by FamiliarFace (I got my own way of livin' But everything gets done With a southern accent Where I come from. TPetty)
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To: FamiliarFace

All very well said. I especially liked the “job interview” part. That’s kinda how it worked with my current wife. The first time, I was basically counting on plenty of “God approved” sex, and I thought we liked each other and, unlike “other people”, we’d be able to work out any disagreements.

BTW, my “arguing with a leftist” analogy especially fits because after all those years, it turned out she was a BIG TIME leftist. I’m ashamed that I never noticed.


19 posted on 05/12/2025 8:53:37 AM PDT by cuban leaf (2024 is going to be one for the history books, like 1939. And 2025 will be more so, like 1940-1945.)
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To: PGR88

My sister told me about a study she read where girls raised with a father and mother did better than those with just a mother. Yes we all know that. It went on to cite that girls raised by Only their father did better than those by two parents. Fathers are important.


20 posted on 05/12/2025 9:47:56 AM PDT by Pocketdoor
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