The powerful unit - Tehran's insistence: "We will not give it up." Why did Iran set a red line, and how dangerous is it ?

The powerful unit, and Tehran's insistence: "We will not give it up." Why did Iran set a red line, and how dangerous is it for us? All the details. "Outside the scope of any agreement": Iran's insistence on the missile force, and Israel's containment battle. While the Iranian foreign minister claims that the American team did not raise "any issue other than nuclear" in the talks, Israel insists that any agreement with Iran must also limit the Iranian missile program. • How long will it take Iran to adapt a missile to a nuclear warhead? Can the Iranian missile array be hit by a military strike? And what has Tehran learned from the "Libyan model"? Eitam Almadun | N12 | Published 16:43 22.04.25.

Ballistic missiles such as the Khaibar, Shahab 3, Khormashar or Sejil have a range of 2,000 km with the ability to carry an explosive charge of up to 1,500 kg. The Iranians also have cruise missiles, the best known of which is the Somar, which has a range of 2,000-3,000 km with the ability to carry 500 kg of explosives. Some of the missiles are based on solid fuel and some on liquid fuel, and some are multi-stage missiles - after the engine falls, the front body itself continues its flight.

"In general, nuclear weapons without a platform are worthless," emphasizes Kaliski. "The Iranian missile program serves them as a platform to carry weapons, conventional or unconventional, and this by relatively simple means."

According to him, the advantage of using missiles is their relative simplicity: "You don't have to have a fleet of aircraft, airfields, shelters, train pilots and crew members. You have a long, rounded body, put it on a truck or a launcher and send it with minimal preparations and with a crew that doesn't have to be as skilled as a pilot." According to him, "Iran is developing long-range ballistic missiles for one purpose only - to carry nuclear warheads. They have no other use that justifies the enormous investment in this technology."

The defense establishment believes that the main purpose of long-range ballistic missiles is to serve as a platform to carry nuclear warheads, and therefore the missile program cannot be separated from the nuclear program...

Complete article translated:

There is a consensus within the Israeli defense establishment and political echelons that nothing less than the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear capabilities should be satisfied. Israel advocates the "Libyan model" as the correct approach, and demands an agreement that would also limit Iran's missile program, especially missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Iran, which has made it clear that it is "ready to accept certain limitations on its uranium enrichment," sees limiting the missile program as a "red line" that cannot be compromised on, and an Iranian official who spoke to Reuters made it clear that the issue is "outside the scope of any agreement."

At the end of the second round of talks held in Rome two days ago, and in light of the uncertainty regarding the American position, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi claimed that the American team had not raised "any issue other than nuclear issues" in the talks so far.

What does the Iranian missile program include?
"The program mainly includes the development of long-range ballistic missiles, with ranges of over 3,000 kilometers," explains Dr. Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). "In addition, it includes the development of long-range cruise missiles, which can reach a range of 2,000 kilometers and attack Haifa and Tel Aviv, and of course the development of drones like the entire Shahid series of various kinds."

Iran has at its disposal an extensive arsenal of sophisticated weapons, dubbed by intelligence officials as the "Ring of Fire" around Israel - as envisioned by Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force who was killed by the Americans in 2020. "The Islamic Republic of Iran is a ballistic missile powerhouse," adds Kaliski. "According to foreign sources, it possesses about 3,000 long-range, precise ballistic missiles, some of which are maneuverable and capable of carrying significant amounts of explosives."

What types of missiles does Iran have?
Ballistic missiles such as the Khaibar, Shahab 3, Khormashar, or Sejil have a range of 2,000 km with the ability to carry an explosive payload of up to 1,500 kg. The Iranians also have cruise missiles, the best known of which is the Somar, which has a range of 2,000-3,000 km with the ability to carry 500 kg of explosives. Some of the missiles are based on solid fuel and some on liquid fuel, and some are multi-stage missiles - after the engine falls, the front body itself continues its flight.

Why does Iran need ballistic missiles if it wants nuclear weapons?
"In general, nuclear weapons without a platform are worthless," Kalisky emphasizes. "The Iranian missile program serves them as a platform to carry weapons, conventional or unconventional, through relatively simple means."

According to him, the advantage of using missiles is their relative simplicity: "You don't have to maintain a fleet of aircraft, airfields, shelters, train pilots and crew members. You have a long, rounded body, put it on a truck or a launcher, and send it with minimal preparations and with a crew that doesn't have to be as skilled as a pilot." According to him, "Iran is developing long-range ballistic missiles for one purpose only - to carry nuclear warheads. They have no other use that justifies the enormous investment in this technology."

The defense establishment believes that the main purpose of long-range ballistic missiles is to serve as a platform for carrying nuclear warheads, and therefore the missile program cannot be separated from the nuclear program.

Does Iran have missiles with nuclear warheads?
Iran currently does not possess missiles with ready-to-use nuclear warheads. However, it has developed an arsenal of hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles, at least some of which could potentially carry a nuclear warhead. “I suppose some of the missiles could be converted,” says Kaliski. “The missiles carry warheads of half a ton or more, so they would have to be converted to carry other things, but I guess the Iranians know that.”

He says the Iranians are getting help from the Chinese, the Pakistanis and covertly from North Korea. "Today the technological gap is no longer the problem it was in the past. You see the Houthis – they have nothing to eat, but they send you the most sophisticated missiles."

How long might it take Iran to develop a nuclear warhead that can be mounted on a missile?
Since the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has increased its enrichment activities to levels close to those required for nuclear weapons, limiting the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspections. As of October 2024, Iran was capable of enriching enough uranium for five nuclear bombs in a week. Since then, its enrichment capacity to a purity level of 60% – a near-military level - has increased fivefold. Despite the progress in uranium enrichment, developing a nuclear warhead that can be mounted on a missile requires additional time. Estimates are that this process could take a year to a year and a half.

Is it possible to damage the Iranian missile system with a military attack?
"It's not something you can hit like in the Air Force's Operation Focus in 1967," explains Kaliski. "The advantage of missiles is that you don't need airfields for them, but some kind of hiding place, tunnel or underground bunker, from which you pull the missile out at the last minute, fuel it and send it. In this respect, it's difficult to destroy them with a preemptive strike."

However, he said, there are several ways in which the damage can still be reduced:
A. Attack during the acceleration phase: "A missile has several stages in its flight. The first stage is the acceleration phase, which lasts several dozen seconds. At this stage, the missile is still unstable, there are enormous pressures on it, and it is very sensitive. Any attack, using kinetic or electromagnetic weapons such as lasers, can damage the missile's body and disrupt its flight."

B. Hitting launchers: "If there are satellites with good sensors, it is possible to identify the launch preparation activities, and then destroy the missiles while they are on their launchers or while they are being fueled."

C. Damage to production infrastructure: "A missile, unlike an airplane, is a perishable thing – you send it and it's gone. It is possible to damage the components used to build the missiles, as in the recent Air Force attack, which hit the factories that prepare the solid fuel. This way, they don't have the ability to build missiles based on solid fuel."

Why is Iran not willing to discuss its missile program within the framework of the nuclear talks?
Kaliski emphasizes that the Iranians are not willing to give up their missile program because "without it, no nuclear weapon would be valuable. They do not have an air force that can serve as a deterrent like our air force, so their only reliance is on missiles."

He adds: "The Iranian nuclear program is intended first and foremost to maintain power. It's a means of securing the regime, because they're constantly looking at the Libyan case and what happened to Gaddafi, who was stripped of his weapons. But they'll want a credible option, and a credible option means it also has a means of delivery."

According to Israel, any agreement that does not limit Iran's missile program would be meaningless, as Iran would be able to continue developing its delivery systems while it waits for the limits on its nuclear program to expire. According to Kalisky, "the Iranians will try to deceive the world and wait patiently until the Trump era is over, and then they will continue their activities."

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