Posted on 03/14/2025 6:13:12 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have very different negotiating styles. Trump lines up his offer in advance, browbeating everyone on his side into compliance before slapping his bottom line on the table. Putin, by contrast, is a haggler. He loads his proposals with excess demands that he intends to discard during the negotiation process to get to a final deal. Put simply, what Putin says he wants and what he realistically expects to get are two different things.
At first glance, Russia’s initial response to US proposals for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine includes several major deal-breakers that Ukraine could never accept. Most notably, the Kremlin demands international recognition that Ukraine’s Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson provinces are now part of Russia. Since Russia doesn’t actually control all of the latter four regions — including the provincial capitals of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — Moscow is essentially demanding that Kyiv cede even more land than it has already lost.
Ukraine voluntarily handing over even more territory to Putin is an obvious nonstarter and the easiest of the Kremlin’s demands to discard. But the formal recognition of a de jure redrawing of Ukraine’s international borders is almost as inconceivable. While many Ukrainians acknowledge that the occupied territories may never be returned, officially partitioning the nation’s borders would be an unacceptable humiliation. It’s also, as a matter of international law, not something that even Trump could unilaterally grant.
International borders are determined by the United Nations. Many territorial disputes — most notably Cyprus, Palestine and China/Taiwan — are still not officially recognized by the UN. Other newly established nations, such as South Sudan, Eritrea or even Korea, are not acknowledged by all of their neighbors. India and Pakistan have been locked in a dispute over Kashmir for 75 years. So the Kremlin’s demand that the world recognize its claimed sovereignty over occupied Ukrainian territory is hardly realistic. The best Moscow can hope for is a revised version of a formula that was already discussed during talks in Istanbul in March 2022 — an agreement by Kyiv to “review” the status of the occupied territories in 15 years.
Other Russian demands were effectively conceded at the Istanbul talks — most notably Ukraine’s future neutrality. Since Ukraine’s immediate NATO membership was never realistically on the table — whether practically, politically, or legally — this should be an easy concession. The only thing truly being sacrificed is Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO at some future date, not an actual membership opportunity, which doesn’t exist. In fact, Ukraine was constitutionally neutral from 2010 until 2015. The sticking point is that neutrality is now being imposed at Moscow’s demand, which is a clear violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Nevertheless, according to four participants in the Istanbul talks, Kyiv was willing to accept neutrality in exchange for peace.
Two Kremlin demands ultimately derailed the Istanbul negotiations: “demilitarization” and “de-Nazification” of Ukraine. In practice, these demands meant restricting the size of Ukraine’s military and repealing laws the Kremlin claimed discriminated against Russian speakers and insulted the memory of World War Two veterans.
Placing limits on Ukraine’s armed forces — currently the largest in Europe and significantly bigger than the combined standing armies of the European Union and the UK — is another major deal-breaker. However, a Korean-style demilitarized zone on both sides of the border might be a viable compromise, as long as it’s much deeper than the 1.5km buffer zone envisioned in the Minsk accords of 2014-2015, which were mostly ignored in practice.
The only truly new issue in the latest Russia-US talks that wasn’t discussed in Istanbul three years ago is the potential deployment of European peacekeepers. The Kremlin has been adamantly opposed. Russia’s combative Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has bluntly and categorically insisted that no NATO troops should be stationed in Ukraine. It is, therefore, puzzling that the UK and France have invested so much effort in assembling a “coalition of the willing” for peacekeeping when it was never going to be acceptable to the Kremlin.
Russia may be bogged down in Ukraine, but it remains undefeated militarily, as Putin — or possibly the older of his body doubles — emphasized when he appeared in Kursk wearing military fatigues to celebrate the crushing of a Ukrainian incursion after five months of fighting. Trump claims to have a backup plan in case Putin refuses to make a deal: harsher sanctions. Indeed, sanctioning importers of Russian oil and gas would cripple Russia’s economy. But it would also cause energy prices to spike and deprive Europe of a fifth of its oil and gas, which it still imports from Russia.
In sum, Putin cannot be forced to sign a peace deal. Nor can he be bullied, no matter how much Trump might want to try. He has to agree voluntarily. A briefing paper from an FSB-linked think tank, leaked to the Financial Times yesterday by a European intelligence service, advises the Kremlin to take a much harder line. Suggested demands include the “complete dismantling” of Ukraine’s current government and wholly demilitarized zones on Ukraine’s side of the border only. By those hawkish standards, Putin’s current demands are relatively modest.
The roadmap to peace — and the obstacles along the way — are now clear. They are largely the same as they were in Istanbul, just as the front lines have changed little since Russia’s withdrawal from around Kyiv in April 2022. Back then, it was Russian intransigence, rather than Boris Johnson’s message of European support, that caused the talks to collapse and turned the invasion into a grinding, years-long war. This time, it’s up to Trump to find a way to persuade — or pressure — Putin into cutting his losses, abandoning his ambitions of controlling Ukraine and finally choosing peace.
Why Trump, Obama, Bush, Biden cater to Putin? Is the U.S. a vassal state of Russia?
Trump and Putin will sort this out.
What’s left of Ukrainian is what they say it is.
I only hope that someone will fill the underground weapons factories with concrete.
Not a vassal state, but Russia is a sovereign nation, has nukes, and has as much interest in what is going on in states at its border as we would have in a Marxist or Fascist government in Mexico or Canada.
I mean I hate the bastards; Patton was right, and if we could pull off a first strike that wiped them off the map I wouldn’t cry; the bastards have had my town in their nuclear crosshairs for 50 years so to hell with each and every one of ‘em, but if any of us were Putin having Ukraine being a partner in NATO would be as acceptable as having Hamas or ISIS running Mexico. Realpolitik
No shit Sherlock. It hasn't worked since 2022.
Same with Mexico...
“Putin, by contrast, is a haggler. He loads his proposals with excess demands that he INTENDS TO DISCARD during the negotiation process to get to a final deal.”
Yet ANOTHER Putin mind-reader. The author would have a lot of ‘friends’ at CNN and even a few (annoying) ones here.
Trump and Putin will strike a deal and Trump will get Zelensky to go along with it.
“...Moscow is essentially demanding that Kyiv cede even more land than it has already lost...”
That is a bargain. It’s not as if the transvestite president of Ukraine has many options. The poofster Zelinsky either takes the deal or the USA is out and then Russia moves in for the kill and takes ALL the rest of Ukraine.
It’s as simple as that. The USA is NOT going to be forever funding a losing war with Russia. The globohomo Zeeper’s have to bend over and spread their ass cheeks. It’s coming. Resistance is futile.
The first paragraph isn’t true, and the last is absolutely fraudulent. The article is sprinkled with exasperating mistakes and untruths throughout.
The author speaks with a voice of assuredness and confidence, despite speaking constant blarney. This style will work on some percent of readers
“potential deployment of European peacekeepers”
Pro-Russia irregulars will capture a few and hold them as hostages Gaza style.
Victoria Jane Nuland= Satan
“The article is sprinkled with exasperating mistakes and untruths throughout.”
“International borders are determined by the United Nations.” is a huge whopper.
Militarily, Russia will want Ukraine:
1. to be neutral
2. to have no foreign troops
3. to not to be part of NATO
4. to abstain from nuclear weapons development and possession
5. to not have missiles with a range of over 200 kilometers
At first glance, Russia’s initial response to US proposals for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine includes several major deal-breakers that Ukraine could never accept. Most notably, the Kremlin demands international recognition that Ukraine’s Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson provinces are now part of Russia. Since Russia doesn’t actually control all of the latter four regions — including the provincial capitals of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — Moscow is essentially demanding that Kyiv cede even more land than it has already lost.
If Ukraine believes it can do better by continuing the conflict, by all means continue. It is not Russia that has been whining and crying for a ceasefire. Russia can just continue its SMO and chew up the Ukraine military until there is nothing left. And they will add Odesa to the territory list. Russia has maintained from the outset that it has no interest in any ceasefire, but rather only a long-term peace agreement.
International borders are determined by the United Nations. Many territorial disputes — most notably Cyprus, Palestine and China/Taiwan — are still not officially recognized by the UN.
The Palestinian borders were specifically established by the League of Nations/United Nations. The status is clear and specific. Israel has been held in illegal occupation of Palestine territory since its war of aggression in 1967. This is backed by several decisions from the International Court of Justice.
Palestine is represented at the United Nations.
There is no international border pertaining to Taiwan. Taiwan was evicted from the United Nations and is considered a province of China. There is a one China policy and no nation that maintains diplomatic relations with China recognizes Taiwan. That includes the United States.
The existence of Taiwan as a nation is not recognized.
This time, it’s up to Trump to find a way to persuade — or pressure — Putin into cutting his losses, abandoning his ambitions of controlling Ukraine and finally choosing peace.
It is not Russian losses that have created a crisis. This time it is up to Ukraine to get an attitude adjustment before it devolves into a failed state with various parts annexed by its neighbor states.
Be patient...it will unwind...but not in a day.
In the meantime, we and the EU should NOT be re-arming Ukraine...not if you want Peace...unless they are defensive weapons.
Ok, that’s the Russian list. What does Ukraine want from Russia in return ( militarily )?
“ International borders are determined by the United Nations”
Wrong.
Blut und Eisen
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