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Pro-Natal Policies Fail Because People Don’t Want Kids
The Federalist ^ | 02/06/2025 | Aidan Grogan

Posted on 02/06/2025 11:02:32 AM PST by SeekAndFind

The ineffectiveness of pro-natal programs suggests raising the next generation isn’t a main priority of 21st-century adults.

Hungary’s fertility rate dropped to a record low in 2024 despite its best efforts to reverse the birth dearth through economic incentives. Those advocating for similar policies in the United States could learn from Hungary’s unsuccessful pro-natal programs, which have a track record of negligible results everywhere they have been implemented.

Nordic countries have the most generous family policies in the world, yet fewer children are born there almost every year. Even in socially conservative Poland, where the “Family 500+” program is widely popular, the fertility rate has declined to its lowest level since World War II in 2023.

A Lancet study projects that sub-replacement fertility will occur in 95 percent of countries by 2100, and that pro-natal policies will increase fertility rates by just 0.2 (the required rate to sustain a population is 2.1).

The common narrative justifying these policy proposals is that raising children has become unaffordable. But if men and women worldwide are forgoing child-rearing due to financial concerns, the expected outcome of pro-natal incentives would be notable increases in fertility. The ineffectiveness of these programs suggests an alternative explanation: Raising the next generation isn’t a main priority of 21st-century adults.

Polls

The U.S. doesn’t have an explicit pro-natal policy, but a Pew Research Center poll indicates that its outcome would likely be negligible. A majority (57 percent) of U.S. adults under 50 who never want to have children say “they just don’t want to” is a major reason. The next most popular excuse is “they want to focus on other things.” Only 36 percent say affordability is a top concern. One-fifth admit they “really don’t like children.”

These aren’t the views of a fringe, anti-natal minority. Nearly half (47 percent) of childless adults under 50 say it’s unlikely they will ever have kids, up 10 percent from 2018.

Child-rearing costs aren’t dissuading Americans from reproducing — they just seemingly prefer to spend their income on travel, sports betting, Netflix, and Gucci bags than on diapers and playpens. As a Journal of Economic Perspectives study concluded, the declining fertility rate in the U.S. is driven by “shifting preferences,” not economic conditions.

Flawed Explanations

Literacy, improvements in health, industrialization, urbanization, contraception, and women’s increased access to higher education and labor markets are often cited as broader factors precipitating downward trends in fertility. But this explanation is becoming increasingly insufficient because birth rates are dropping worldwide in rich and poor countries alike. Myanmar and Nepal, which are designated by the United Nations (U.N.) as “Least Developed Countries” (LDCs), are both experiencing sub-replacement fertility.

Israel, meanwhile, ranks “very high” in the U.N.’s Human Development Index and exceeds the U.S. in female labor force participation. But Israel maintains a commendable fertility rate of 2.9.

This is a result of Jewish cultural values, which prize marriage and child-rearing, especially among Ultra-Orthodox Jews, whose fertility rate is more than double the national average. But even secular, native-born Jewish women in Israel say the ideal family consists of three children, whereas European women view two children as ideal.

Israel’s tense national security environment can’t entirely explain its high fecundity. The Ultra-Orthodox Jewish fertility rate is nearly identical in both Israel and the U.S., suggesting that culture and religion are important in propelling Jewish natalism.

According to economist Lant Pritchett, the decisive factor that determines a country’s fertility is the desired number of children women say they want to have. Where fertility is high, women want many children; where it is low, women want fewer. Cultural customs and social norms, not government incentives, appear to strongly influence reproductive patterns.

So why do women worldwide suddenly desire smaller families? Demographers and economists can only speculate as the global fertility crisis worsens and low birth rates become irreversible in many countries, such as South Korea (0.7) or even China, approaching 1.0.

Depopulation Agenda

Could the post-war global depopulation agenda of the U.N. Population Fund and numerous international nongovernmental organizations — the Population Council, the International Planned Parenthood Federation, the Club of Rome, etc. — have contributed to the baby dearth by incessantly promoting neo-Malthusian and anti-natal ideology worldwide?

Overpopulation anxieties remain widespread globally, even as fertility rates plummet, and nearly 40 percent of young people say they are hesitant to have children due to climate change.

Humanity is woefully unprepared for the specter of depopulation later this century, especially central European and Asian countries that refuse migrants to temporarily offset low birth rates. The current baby bust may result in serious economic, political, and social consequences as the working-age population shrinks and nations experience dwindling resources to provide health care, pensions, and other services to the elderly.

Affluence and Growth

Demographer Nicholas Eberstadt has outlined how prolonged affluence is not incompatible with depopulation, but an aging society places renewed emphasis on the importance of economic freedom.

Sustained growth amid demographic decline will require a less burdensome tax and regulatory environment, lower barriers to trade and investment, and ample opportunity for knowledge creation, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

In the 14th century, the Black Death wiped out almost one-third of Europe’s population. Nearly 700 years later, we do not face the peril of a deadly pathogen, but a malady in the human heart, which often no longer wishes to love and nourish posterity.

Such was the blight of ancient Greece in the 2nd century B.C. According to Polybius, decadent lifestyles that prioritized money and pleasure over marriage and child-rearing — in addition to the widespread practice of infanticide — contributed to depopulation and the collapse of Greek civilization.

A similar fate in our time will not be circumvented through public policy, but only through a revival of pro-natal social norms and a culture that celebrates and cherishes life.



TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: birthrate; demographics; fertility; population

1 posted on 02/06/2025 11:02:32 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Liberals don’t want kids and that’s perfect.


2 posted on 02/06/2025 11:06:22 AM PST by SaxxonWoods (Black guy upon receiving a MAGA hat: "MURICA!")
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To: SeekAndFind
Demographer Nicholas Eberstadt has outlined how prolonged affluence is not incompatible with depopulation,

(snip)

Such was the blight of ancient Greece in the 2nd century B.C. According to Polybius, decadent lifestyles that prioritized money and pleasure over marriage and child-rearing — in addition to the widespread practice of infanticide — contributed to depopulation and the collapse of Greek civilization.

Eventually affluence does become incompatible with population collapse. Technological/economic progress slows, then halts, then slides into reverse as lack of manpower means systems cannot be maintained and then break down completely in the final stages.

Even in the US the population collapse is more advanced than most realize. And break out dissident groups like the Amish and unassimilated immigrants and the picture is even worse. (The Amish alone are slated to take over the planet in a few centuries, if current trends never changed. ;-)

3 posted on 02/06/2025 11:15:00 AM PST by EnderWiggin1970
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To: SeekAndFind

In order for pro natal programs to work, they would have to pay out enough for a woman to quit her job and stay home, Due to inflation and other problems, 1-income families cannot function. The cost of food alone, not to mention housing, precludes it. Factor in the costs of clothing, medicine, doctors and dentists, utilities, and 2 income families are struggling. Of course, that doesn’t fix the selfish narcissism that seems to be rampant, but not everyone is affected by that.


4 posted on 02/06/2025 11:17:12 AM PST by Flaming Conservative ((Pray without ceasing))
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To: Flaming Conservative

Societal suicide. Without a strong belief in God, this is probably inevitable. Not believing in something greater than yourself, or something beyond the grave, contributes to this greatly.IMHO. Let there be a sign from above before it’s too late for Western Civilization.


5 posted on 02/06/2025 11:27:09 AM PST by john drake (Lucius Accius-Roman,170 BC - "oderint dum metuant" translated "Let them hate so long as they fear")
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To: SeekAndFind

Civilizations end when women refuse to have children.


6 posted on 02/06/2025 11:31:29 AM PST by TheDon (Remember the J6 political prisoners! Remember Ashli Babbitt!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Government “pro-natal” policies are just more of the same socialist/progressive/marxist “central planning” mindset - which caused people to not want children in the first place.

Just look at China. for 40 years, they didn’t want children. They even forced abortions.

Now the same communists are trying to coax people into having children.

Have their 1000 other anti-human, anti-social, materialist government social-engineering policies changed? No.


7 posted on 02/06/2025 11:41:20 AM PST by PGR88
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To: SeekAndFind

An old saying is that....

A society becomes great when old men plant trees under who’s shade they will never sit.

Similarly, European Christians would build churches over the course of GENERATIONS. A stone mason may have started working on the foundation of a church in which his great-grandson may have attended the very first worship service decades later.

They lived like this because they were more than individuals. They were more than just families. They viewed themselves, their neighbors and everyone they knew as part
of a larger unit. They were a culture, a people, a nation and a church. One would sacrifice for the good of this larger group.

Modern liberalism, godlessness and multiculturalism has killed this way of life. It’s all about “me” and “right now”.


8 posted on 02/06/2025 11:59:30 AM PST by nitzy (I don’t trust good looking country singers or fat doctors.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Hannah's Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth
9 posted on 02/06/2025 12:08:47 PM PST by T Ruth (Mohammedanism shall be destroyed.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Take out the Orthodox Jews (who do not work in the economy and defense of Isreal, and are supported by the US and Isreal), and the Muslims.. then what is the birth rate in Isreal?


10 posted on 02/06/2025 12:10:12 PM PST by redgolum
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To: SeekAndFind
It's not primarily economic factors that prevent people from having kids. It's cultural/philosophical factors.

Until those factors get fixed, fertility rates won't improve no matter how many economic incentives you throw at the problem.
11 posted on 02/06/2025 12:12:21 PM PST by Antoninus (Republicans are all honorable men.)
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To: nitzy
A society becomes great when old men plant trees under who’s whose shade they will never sit.

An ancient Greek proverb - more valid today than ever before.

Regards,

12 posted on 02/06/2025 12:18:14 PM PST by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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To: redgolum
Take out the Orthodox Jews (who do not work in the economy and defense of Isreal Israel, and are supported by the US and Isreal Israel), and the Muslims.. then what is the birth rate in Isreal Israel?

Here's a Wikipedia entry answering your question.

Regards,

13 posted on 02/06/2025 12:23:05 PM PST by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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To: alexander_busek

God said be fruitful and multiply. The world will kill itself. Very simple.

God made man to procreate, not consider economics. Man plays god with birth control and destroys himself.


14 posted on 02/06/2025 12:39:05 PM PST by If You Want It Fixed - Fix It
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To: SeekAndFind

Allegedly generous parental leave policies marginalize fathers.


15 posted on 02/06/2025 12:43:01 PM PST by Arcadian Empire (The Baric-Daszak-Fauci spike protein, by itself, is deadly.)
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To: SaxxonWoods

It is a sure sign of a collapsing society.


16 posted on 02/06/2025 1:00:43 PM PST by GingisK
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To: SaxxonWoods

Liberals have intentionally made it a financial challenge to have and raise children.


17 posted on 02/06/2025 4:17:07 PM PST by Iron Munro (Unpredictable only to those who live in their own reality )
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To: alexander_busek

Thank you
My spelling sucks, and I am surprised my browser didn’t catch that.


18 posted on 02/06/2025 4:57:30 PM PST by redgolum
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