Posted on 01/23/2025 8:49:51 PM PST by Kazan
Mr. President, I believe that the CIA is providing you inaccurate, false intelligence about Russia’s casualties and the condition of its economy. If you hope to realize your goal of opening negotiations with President Vladimir Putin to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, you must be equipped with the best information available.
You have been briefed that Russia has suffered devastating losses — as many as 800,000 casualties — and that Russia’s economy is weak and fragile. Data from open sources paint a diametrically opposite picture.
One of the best open sources for information about Russian casualties is Mediazona:
Mediazona (Russian: Медиазона) is a Russian independent media outlet focused on Anti-Putinist opposition that was founded by Maria Alyokhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, who are also co-founders of the protest group and band Pussy Riot. The outlet’s editor-in-chief is Russian political journalist Sergey Smirnov.
Mediazona is an independent organization that is ideologically opposed to Vladimir Putin. It is the antithesis of a Russian propaganda outlet. Mediazona employs a multi-faceted methodology to track Russian casualties in the Ukraine war, which includes:
1.Open-source intelligence gathering: They monitor publicly available information from news agencies, social media platforms, official military reports, and local residents’ groups.
2. Collaboration: Mediazona works closely with the BBC Russian Service to track and verify casualty reports.
3.Comprehensive database: They maintain a regularly updated casualty list, which currently contains over 44,600 names of Russian soldiers killed in action.
4. Probate Registry analysis: Mediazona combines their casualty list with data from the Probate Registry database to estimate the true mortality rate among Russian men.
5. Statistical modeling: They use a method that accounts for all excess male mortality up to age 50, considering factors such as social composition, delays in notary consultations, and death registration delays.
6. Cross-referencing: The team verifies information by cross-checking multiple sources and databases.
7.Volunteer network: A team of volunteers assists in data collection and verification.
8.Continuous updating: The database is regularly updated to reflect the most current information available.
According to Mediazona’s latest data, there are 88,726 confirmed Russian combat deaths since February 2022. Mediazona estimates, using probate registry data, that the number may be as high as 120,000. This is a far cry from the numbers claimed by Ukrainian intelligence, which forms the basis of CIA estimates.
It is essential that you understand that Russia views this war as vital to its continued existence. Russia is not fighting to reconstitute the Soviet Empire. It sees Ukraine as a Western-proxy being used to attack Russia with US and NATO supplied weapons and intelligence, with the ultimate goal of destroying the current government.
Accordingly, the only satisfactory outcome for Russia is to end this threat. President Putin is willing to accept a negotiated settlement provided that Ukraine is stripped of its capacity to launch future attacks on Russia and that NATO ends any consideration of making Ukraine a member of NATO.
According to the latest IMF projections, Russia’s economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025, a slight increase from their previous forecast of 1.3%. This represents a slowdown from the estimated 3.8% growth in 2024. The IMF attributes this slowdown to several factors:
1.Transition from a “war economy”: Russia’s economy has been running hot, fueled by substantial public spending on the war effort.
2.High inflation: The IMF reports inflation in Russia at 8.3% in 2024, with sequential inflation even higher at above 9%.
3. Monetary tightening: In response to high inflation, the Central Bank of Russia has raised interest rates to 21%, which is expected to weigh down economic activity.
The IMF’s forecast for Russia in 2025 is lower than the Russian Economic Development Ministry’s baseline forecast of 2.5% growth. However, it falls within the Central Bank of Russia’s current forecast range of 0.5-1.5%.
It’s worth noting that some Russian officials, including Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, have criticized the IMF’s forecasts as overly pessimistic, arguing that they don’t account for measures taken by Russian authorities to support the economy.
Here is the critical point: Despite the projected slowdown, the IMF’s forecast suggests that Russia’s economy continues to show resilience in the face of Western sanctions, largely due to factors such as robust oil and commodity exports to countries like India and China, and the expansion of its military-industrial complex.
The Russian government view of its economy remains upbeat, with officials highlighting strong growth figures and resilience in the face of Western sanctions. The Russian government points to several key indicators to support this optimistic view:
1. GDP growth: The economy grew by 3.6% in 2023 and is expected to grow by around 4% in 2024, making Russia one of the fastest-growing major economies.
2. Low unemployment: The unemployment rate dropped to 2.6% in 2024, a historically low level.
3.Rising global economic status: According to the World Bank, Russia has overtaken Germany and Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world when measured by purchasing power parity.
4. Increased investment: Fixed capital investment grew by 9.8% in 2023 and 14.5% in the first quarter of 2024. Trade surplus: Russia enjoyed a surplus of $50.2 billion in 2023 and $40.6 billion in the first half of 2024.
President Vladimir Putin uses these economic indicators to argue that Western sanctions have been ineffective and to showcase Russia’s economic model to partners in Asia and Africa. His message is resonating with the leaders of the Global South.
If you consider Russia’s perspective on the war in terms of casualties and the economy, Vladimir Putin is under no pressure to reach a negotiated settlement that does not address Russia’s strategic concerns that it will no longer face a military threat from NATO. If you fail to understand this and adjust your strategy to make a deal, your efforts to negotiate an end to war in Ukraine will not succeed.
The numbers Trump quoted for each side were indeed a surprise, and absurdly inflated, but his point was still valid.
President Trump will say what he says but the war will continue Russia wants to hear something different from him, so the war drags on.
The purpose of the war was to hurt Russia and Mr. Trump is getting the spin from the “Deep State” that paints the ‘hurt Russia’ strategy as successful.
Starve the Russians and Ukrainians both. Do everything economically to reduce Russia’s resources and limit support for Ukraine. Drive down oil prices that feed the Russian war machine. Let them fight with sticks and stones and freeze them out of the economic community until they come to their senses.
Putin is the major culprit. His NATO expansion paranoia was not a sufficient excuse for invasion. He invaded Ukraine because he thought he could exploit the weakness of a cognitively impaired US president.
Russia should pay a price and be excluded from worldwide economic cooperation for many years.
Some of us still remember who he was from the GWH Bush years and the Plame affair.
Tulsi Gabbard is the answer. Hers has been the most important nomination since it was announced.
Larry Johnson says 88,000-120,000 killed. CIA says 800,000 casualties. Those numbers aren’t incompatible since casualties are both dead and wounded. It’s very believable that there are 7 Rooskies wounded for every Rooskie killed.
As for the economic data, the important one is that, although the economy grew at 2-4%, inflation was 9+%. The standard of living is decreasing.
Not only is it hard to believe, it's utterly impossible. Even idiot MSM admits Russia has huge advantages in artillery, tanks, missiles, planes, fabs - everything. Ukraine air defense no longer exists. The country has no electricity. The notion they have killed 800K (or even 200K) Russians is utterly absurd.
Ukraine soldiers are static in their trenches or village strongholds. Russia simply flattens everything, pummels their positions and logistics routes until nothing remains and Uke units are out of supplies. Then they move in. Wash, rinse, repeat. Its not fast maneuver warfare, but its effective at destroying the Uke army and an entire generation of Ukrainian men.
I would imagine if casualties were equal at the start of the war, by now Ukraine is losing 10 for every 1 Russian killed.
Russian trade with the US is limited to the items the US can’t do without, Russia is heavily divesting from trade with the G7 as a whole. You can’t do a thing to strangle it.
It depends how low you can push down the oil price. The
Russia is a sh** country. Putin is an a-hole and a worldwide embarrassment , He’s all the things the leftist said about Trump. I think Trump can help to isolate them by taking away their energy exports to Europe. I don’t know about you but I’d rather try collective tough economic measures aimed at boycotting their energy rather than throwing money at Ukraine.
Putin was really stupid to do this war. I thought he would’ve tried to get Germany really dependent on Russian energy as a way of fracturing the US Europe alliance. Instead he had pissed off Europe so much that it will take a long time to resume trade and good relations. Putin the genius even managed to push Sweden and Finland into NATO which significantly weakens his strategic position in the Baltic and Artic which can be cut off via Finland.
Your boy is quite the Einstein. But. Zelenskyy is just a con man like ex president demento.
This war is like a cowboy movie with 2 bad guys and no good guys: there’s nobody to root for.
CC
Good article (and there’s nothing in it that people who pay attention didn’t already know). Let’s hope Trump learns what it contains (either from it or other channels). If not, he’ll be flailing a bit and lose face when his efforts to end the war miscarry due to CIA-orchestrated misjudgments.
President Trump knows how to analyze financial statements, and he has access to better info than you do
So we’ll believe what he says to be true, more than what you say
You need to up your ‘thinking’ with Shinola..
Once more for the guys in the back:
Casualties include injuries and captures, not just deaths.
In a modern war, it’s totally expected to see “casualties” run several times higher than “deaths.” It does not mean anyone is lying, other than after a while it becomes difficult to belief all this confusion is mere incompetence and stupidity.
Like everything, both sides are engaging in miseducation.
>> 1. GDP growth: The economy grew by 3.6% in 2023 and is expected to grow by around 4% in 2024, making Russia one of the fastest-growing major economies. <<
War always makes GDP look good, because the economy has to furiously replace spent weapons, damaged equipment, and collateral. Same response for #2 and #3.
Russia’s interest rates are 21% and inflation rates are at 10%. The super-high interest rates are an attempt by Russia to choke off industry responding to admittedly robust consumer demand; the military needs those workers, so they’re making private investment impossible.... which is fueling foreign investment.
The irony is that this actually creates good short-term economic conditions for the average worker not being sent to the front. There is high demand for labor, resulting in wages roughly keeping up with inflation. Production is stoked from overseas investment. But who is investing so much money? China. What is Russia getting for so much spending? Nothing but debt. What is all the money Russia making going to? A war machine.
And as for wages keeping up with inflation? Well, high prices are keeping the housing market soft, and China is dumping cheap electronics and God knows what other manipulations are happening. But food prices are exploding, and there’s no band of terrorists destroying every major egg farm or government putting a sudden stop to grazing.
Truth was a causality before the conflict, it was the first thing killed. Numbers from both sides are propaganda.
I have seen tank yards and APC yards, artillery yards, empty. You can too on you tube. Those vehicles are manned, three in a tank, 6-12, in an APC. 15-20k vehicles are gone, with crews. That’s not even speaking about infantry.
800k Russian deaths isn’t including: sailors, missing, foreign fighters, mercenaries, Wagner. That number, that total number, probably easily breaches 1 million. Ukraine probably has 200-300k soldiers, but close to that in civilian losses. 2 million dead for Soros and Vlad the Invader.
The Russian economy is irrelevant, as are the Russian losses, they have historically always endured such devastation. This will be a never ending conflict unless peace is made, becoming a test bed for modern weapons and tactics, while both sides bleed. Trump is the best chance to end it before it spreads like a disease.
I said high prices are keeping the housing market soft; I meant high interest rates.
“It is essential that you understand that Russia views this war as vital to its continued existence. Russia is not fighting to reconstitute the Soviet Empire. It sees Ukraine as a Western-proxy being used to attack Russia with US and NATO supplied weapons and intelligence, with the ultimate goal of destroying the current government.”
Actually, I don’t agree with him here. The PUBLISHED PAPERS of the Neocons go beyond ‘regime change’ in Russia, but also indicate a desire to break up Russia into around 8 different easy-to-control countries (which they’ve already done Russia the favor of naming them). Just swapping out Putin for a similar leader won’t get them anywhere because Putin is simply representing the will of the people there.
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