Posted on 12/04/2024 2:04:45 PM PST by nickcarraway
The Arctic Ocean may see its first ice-free day before 2030, earlier than scientists predicted.
While most projections of the Arctic’s sea ice have focused on month-by-month conditions, a new study has revealed possible predictions down to the day.
Previous expectations had the Arctic Sea loss predicted around 2030, but these results reveal that an ice-free day could occur as early as late summer 2027.
Nine other simulations, while less likely, predict that it could occur within the next three to six years.
Scientists, from the study published in Nature Communications, say the Arctic’s first ice-free day is now inevitable and irreversible, regardless of how humans alter greenhouse gas emissions.
What is an ice-free Arctic, and why does it matter? The Arctic Ocean covers a vast area of more than 16 million square kilometres, and for thousands of years, it has witnessed a natural seasonal event: layers of frozen seawater dramatically build up over the winter months into a thick ice cap that peaks in March before it melts in September.
In recent decades, however, this dramatic event has been less prevalent.
Sea ice has declined by more than 12 per cent every decade since 1978, when satellite imagery - the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer or ‘SMMR’ - started recording Arctic sea ice growth and retreat.
That’s 80,000 square kilometres every year - roughly the same size as Austria or the Czech Republic.
Scientists define ‘ice-free’ as thesea ice area dropping to less than one million square kilometres in a short time, which is considered a climate tipping point.
Related Polar bear tracking tech breakthrough could boost conservation as climate heats up 2024 set to be first year above 1.5C global warming limit, scientists warn A team of international researchers, including climatologist Alexandra Jahn from the University of Colorado Boulder and Céline Heuzé from the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, used over 300 computer models to predict the first ice-free day. These showed an accelerated timeline compared to what was previously projected.
Rapid ice loss events are typically associated with intense winters and spring warming.
Long-term, if the Arctic Ocean is regularly declared ice-free, this could significantly impact the fragile ecosystem of the northernmost sea, including everything from the ‘emblematic polar bearto the crucial zooplankton,’ the study reveals.
A polar bear on the Arctic tundra A polar bear on the Arctic tundraCanva/HuntedDuck What will the Arctic Ocean’s ice-free days mean for humans? The day the Arctic shows ice-free conditions is symbolically significant. It will visually highlight how humans have changed one of our planet's defining natural features: from a white to a blue Arctic Ocean.
“The first ice-free day in the Arctic won’t change things dramatically,” explained Jahn in a statement.
“But it will show that we’ve fundamentally altered one of the defining characteristics of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean, which is that it is covered by sea ice and snow year-round, through greenhouse gas emissions.”
The sun never sets in the Arctic during summer, so without the reflective ice reflecting sunlight into space, the ocean will absorb and distribute a substantial amount of heat around the Earth.
Related COP29: The state of the climate in eight charts Deadly flooding and wildfires are signs of 'climate breakdown' fast becoming the norm, EU warns International waters do not have any jurisdiction, so commercial industries could exploit opportunities found in the warmer Arctic waters. They could fish and deep-mine previously inaccessible marine and mineral populations, while freight companies could take a quicker shipping route across the Northwest Passage.
Stormy weather in the Northwest Passage Stormy weather in the Northwest PassageCanva/Ruben Ramos The warming could also lead to more erratic and extreme weather events through changing wind and ocean current patterns.
Warmer years have already occurred: in March 2222, some of the Arctic was 50F/10C warmer than the average, which caused areas around the North Pole to almost melt.
The study's authors say there is still a chance to delay the timeline for the sea ice melt in the near future.
"Any reductions in emissions would help preserve sea ice," added Jahn.
We’ve been hearing this for 30 years now.
LMAO
and when it is colder than ever then with more snow than ever they will proclaim that as PROOF! they were correct!
LMAO
LOL
Does anyone bet on this kind if thing?
With all due respect, it’s not going to matter two days before The Day After Tomorrow
I better book my cruise to the polar ice caps now before it’s just just a pool of slush and Polo bear poop
So they are trying the old Ice-Free by Summer Arctic one again? Do they think we forgot?
I heard this in 1971 in science class
The high water mark at my Long Island Sound beach is the same as when we swam there in 1971. 1964 for that matter
And likely before when the houses were built in the 1770s. They were pre revolutionary war.
In 2002 expectations had the Arctic Sea ice free around 2010. They were wrong then and they are wrong now.
ROFL , these idiots will never give up
Flashback 2000: ‘Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past’ – ‘Children just aren’t going to know what snow is’
https://www.climatedepot.com/2018/01/04/flashback-2000-snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-children-just-arent-going-to-know-what-snow-is-uk-independent/
Algore has been there done that and the ice got thicker like these so called scientists
could be....
All the idiots are coming out from under their rocks trying to get money from the Biden Admin before it leaves
Was supposed to happen by 2020 and no snow in the Sierra Nevadas. They had 20 feet last year.
Yee-haw! Let’s buy Greenland and mine the bleep out of it!
FWIW when sea ice melts it has no effect on sea levels.
10C is 18F, not 50F as claimed in the article. Obvious whopping errors like this make me immediately suspicious of anything else in the piece
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