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The Implications of the Oreshnik Strike
Substack ^ | 11/25/24 | Steven Bryen

Posted on 11/25/2024 10:11:26 AM PST by hardspunned

The Ukrainians, NATO and the United States have been alarmed about Russia's use of the Oreshnik Intermediate Range Ballistic missile on a defense manufacturing plant in Dnipro (formerly Dnipropetrovsk).  The Russians say the missile was hypersonic, which it was, but that is only a small part of the story.  Use of the missile has serious implications for Ukraine, NATO and the United States.

(Excerpt) Read more at open.substack.com ...


TOPICS: War
KEYWORDS: escalation; missiles; russia; tothelastukrainian; ukraine; war
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It’s a whole new ballgame now.
1 posted on 11/25/2024 10:11:26 AM PST by hardspunned
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To: hardspunned

The escalation is Blinkin’s attempt to have Trump get blamed for WW III. That is, if Trump or any of us are still around.


2 posted on 11/25/2024 10:20:59 AM PST by zipper (In their heart of hearts, all Democrats are communists)
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To: nobody in particular
amazing! a missile capable of 20,000 mph. Mach 27...

Wow!

3 posted on 11/25/2024 10:22:05 AM PST by SGCOS
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To: hardspunned

If Elon Musk went full dark Simon Bar Sinister, how much mass would he need to lift into space to built a doomsday kinetic device?


4 posted on 11/25/2024 10:23:04 AM PST by hardspunned (Look for the“Putin Stooge” libel, news from Ukraine you’ve gradually grown to trust over 30 months )
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To: hardspunned

While the USA spent 25 years, and $$ trillions for the woke MIC, and the time of its best tech minds chasing illiterate Muslims in the desert, and working on new ways to deliver porn on the internet - the Russians were working on this.


5 posted on 11/25/2024 10:25:42 AM PST by PGR88
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To: hardspunned

The key take always should be is they took a three stage ICBM and put at least one if not two mach 20 maneuvering glide vehicles on it. A RS26 would have a throw weight of 4000 lbs or so at mach 20 over a 500 mile depressed trajectory. These are not ballistic missiles in the classic high apogee parabola sense. They are boost out of the atmosphere than skim low and fast over it in a nearly flat trajectory. Pretty easy to do with a three stage 100000lb Icbm class rocker system. First stage puts you up above the atmosphere at 60-100km and mach 5, second stage changes the velocity vector to near horizontal and mach 15 the third stage is held on till near the target and just above the atmosphere it is used to boost earthward and change the near horizontal velocity vector to near vertical and up the speed to mach 20 where the maneuvering glide vehicle takes over in a 80 degree downward trajectory. This matches what the videos show a near vertical entry with 6 sets of six sub sets. Two 2000lb HGVs bottom to bottom make for a nice fit in a nose cone as they are triangular with flat bottoms. Each has three sub sets of munitions inside it ejected out the back side into the slip stream those also have heat shields really just ablative felt coatings very light and very high temp ratings with either fins or mass shifting control packages to bend the last seconds of flight to a sub 10 meter cep.

The videos clearly show 6 sets of six reentry vehicles all at near vertical entry angles with about a second from start of plasma glow till impact that shows at least 3 kilometres per seconds to go from the stratosphere to ground level and if you watch the boost videos you see the first stage burn out and the second ignition and burn as it goes horizontal at a rapidly increasing rate exactly what one would expect for a depressed trajectory boost glide profile.


6 posted on 11/25/2024 10:35:13 AM PST by GenXPolymath
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To: SGCOS

That’s almost as fast as a spaceship.


7 posted on 11/25/2024 10:36:07 AM PST by Jeff Chandler (THE ISSUE IS NEVER THE ISSUE. THE REVOLUTION IS THE ISSUE.)
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To: hardspunned

Space X Starship could deliver 250 metric tons — about half a million pounds.


8 posted on 11/25/2024 10:39:41 AM PST by Jeff Chandler (THE ISSUE IS NEVER THE ISSUE. THE REVOLUTION IS THE ISSUE.)
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To: SGCOS

To be fair, that’s generally any missile that can get to or climb out of the upper reaches of the atmosphere. The second stage of a Falcon 9 routinely gets into that ballpark when launching Starlink microsats.

The part that should actually frighten you is how fast the MIRVs that the thing carries go even after re-entry. The Avangard is the only Russian hypersonic glide vehicle (read: modern MIRV) known to the West to have been in operational service prior to this, and indeed this may have been Avangards on top of the Oreshnik missile. The Avangard is known to be agile and able to turn and evade in terminal glide and can have a speed *at impact* of Mach 20-27. Even without a warhead, that’s a pretty nasty energy conversion when it hits. Also means that if it isn’t set to air or surface burst, it’s one hell of a bunker buster.

This speed is well above the top bracket of air defense systems and indeed is faster than any Western intercept missile at that depth of the atmosphere. None of our current or proposed energy weapons can track that fast at closer range nor can any penetrate the plasma sheath that that speed generates around the vehicle.


9 posted on 11/25/2024 10:44:02 AM PST by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: Jeff Chandler

The difference is that these are doing that speed at the bottom of the atmosphere, not in space. Terminal velocity of an Avangard MIRV is Mach 20-27 *at impact*.


10 posted on 11/25/2024 10:45:27 AM PST by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: hardspunned

150 metric tonnes of mass at orbital velocity...given that two metric tonnes of HGV is equal to 21 tonnes of TNT worth of kinetic energy as plasma like a meteor at mach 20 which is 7 mach slower than orbital speed. Say a 1 to 15 tonne ratio so 150 tonnes is carrying 2,250 tonnes worth of bang or 2.2kilotonnes the yield of a small nuke. Starship can lob 150 tonnes to orbit so splitting that up into a few hundred one tonne uranium cored heatsheild wrapped mass shifting MARVs wouldn’t be that hard. You could take out 150 office building sized targets with a weapon like that. So midtown Manhattan would be dust and fires.

Why depleted uranium because when it hits at even supersonic speed it instantly burns at 6000 degrees F in air you get a giant white hot plasma trail right down the heart of your target that nothing can put out until all the oxygen is used up.

A better way for city busting would be instead of 150 solid uranium cored MARVs you fill them with 800 or so one kg uranium spikes then when you are a couple of kilometres above your targets you kick them out the back end in a swarm of individual spikes. Each one is moving at mach 10 or more and will penetrate end to.end of a building while spewing 20000+F plasma in it’s wake due to not only the uranium burning but it’s kinetic energy into heat as it impacts solid materials. Each one of those 800 individual spikes will burn its way through any structure it hits in a kilometer wide area now you just took out a 150 square km area with fire storm Dresden level fires. The implications for kinetic weapons is past nuclear ones they don’t call them rods from God for nothing. That’s one starship payloads worth, Elon wants a fleet of starships.


11 posted on 11/25/2024 10:51:09 AM PST by GenXPolymath
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To: GenXPolymath

It’s still hard for me to wrap my head around 36 conventional warheads impacting with a kinetic energy release of multiple tons of TNT each from one missile.


12 posted on 11/25/2024 10:54:45 AM PST by hardspunned (Look for the“Putin Stooge” libel, news from Ukraine you’ve gradually grown to trust over 30 months )
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To: hardspunned

Mass and Velocity = BOOM.


13 posted on 11/25/2024 10:57:20 AM PST by Big Red Badger (ALL Things Will be Revealed !)
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To: Spktyr

Similar to the Rods from God.


14 posted on 11/25/2024 10:59:59 AM PST by Tom Tetroxide
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To: hardspunned

I knew what this was the minute I saw it.

Russia is sending a message to the west- particularly to NATO and the “owners” of the current Obama/Biden regime. That missile they sent into Ukraine is capable of carrying a nuke, and Putin is telling us that that could happen next time.
All we have here is two groups of communists/socialists/leftists (western and eastern) rattling their sabres at each other and threatening ALL of us, something that has been going on for decades.

One of two things can happen here- either Trump goes in there and tells NATO to back the F off, or he pulls us OUT of that rotten-to-the-core organization before we get a missile down our throats (my preference).

I don’t know about anyone else, but I am SICK TO DEATH of being pulled into messes that the UN and NATO get us into with the willing help of the democrat party and the warmongering rinos. Remember Somalia?


15 posted on 11/25/2024 11:03:27 AM PST by 13Sisters76 ("It is amazing how many people mistake a certain hip snideness for sophistication. " Thos. Sowell)
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To: hardspunned

Each one of those 36 was equal to a 1000lb conventional bomb that goes off as plasma like a meteor after punching tthrough multiple tens of feet of concrete. There is images coming oit now showing the factory hit it’s a USSR era underground icbm production facility it’s gone everything inside was turned to burnt dust. It was three levels deep of concrete reinforced hardened factory made to take conventional air strikes. Its obliterated, they gave 30 minutes warning so hopefully everyone left the insides. It took 15 min to get there so in 45 of time no air defence system could stop it from hitting.

These things don’t go up high in a long predictable arc. They skim just over the atmosphere and then come in nearly vertical. Exo atmospheric interceptors are useless but all for the last few seconds it’s once the horizon in it’s depressed trajectory. Endo interceptors have to contend with multiple in this case 6 maneuvering glide vehicles pulling 100+ G turns at mach 20 while being wrapped in radar absorbing plasma. So IR is the only way to see them, once the high density sub munitions come out there is no stopping those as even a direct hit still sends the mass to the ground at hypersonic speeds just spreading the impacts over a larger area.

If they had nukes on them you would salvage fuse them for sure so any intercept sets off the nuke with nanosecond level salvage fuses. This blinds all the other incoming interceptors and the warheads that follow fly right through the expanding fireball protected by their heat shields and quartz X-ray shields we perfected hardened nukes in the 1970s you could set off a nuke right next to it’s brother and as long as it’s nmy inside the actual fireball it will fly right by it’s brother and work just fine. The tactic is called beat down, you salvage fuse every warhead and let the interceptors blind themselves while your mirv/marv keep coming from behind the nuclear fireball shield. Why do you think the SS18 was destined for 36 warheads plus at least as many penetration aids it’s the ultimate beat down weapon the SARMAT is it’s modern brother and has the same design.


16 posted on 11/25/2024 11:11:04 AM PST by GenXPolymath
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To: Tom Tetroxide

Exactly. This is in the “orbital bombardment” class.


17 posted on 11/25/2024 11:12:42 AM PST by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: hardspunned

Kinetic Energy equals mass times velocity *squared*. When the object hits something, the energy must be either transferred, released or both.

The sick part? Those MIRVs didn’t even have explosive warheads aboard. They had nothing but ballast. Get a dense enough warhead on them and you get the benefits of a micronuke but no radiation or fallout. To say nothing of the plasma sheath and wake the MIRV creates by the speed of its passage setting everything on fire within a certain radius *before* the kinetic energy release.

This is how asteroids with no explosives or fissiles aboard kill planets or end geographic epochs. The one that partially created the Gulf of Mexico and killed off the dinosaurs and almost all life above the microscopic on this planet was only about six miles wide - but it came in at orbital velocities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicxulub_crater

Dense mass moving fast hits unyielding object? BIG BOOM. If it is big enough and or moving fast enough, even a nuclear warhead is superfluous and would not significantly add to the destruction.


18 posted on 11/25/2024 11:23:45 AM PST by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: Spktyr

The RS28 SARMAT has a FOBS mode as well, it puts its payload into a very low earth orbit.Then has a terminal stage to change the velocity vector to near vertical right near the target. It’s capable of carrying four to six mach 20 maneuvering glide vehicles or 30+ individual warheads plus decoys and penetration aids. They would launch south over the South pole the USA turned off and dismantled it’s south llooking radars there would be no intercepting a FOBS from the South. The RS28 can carry a 20 megaton FOBS too the EMP yield of nightmares. One 20 megaton 150 miles over Kansas and the grid is down for months if not years as every large transformer is cooked and all the small ones too.

Tell me again why the globalpedohomo alliance in Ukraine is worth sending north America to the 1800s level energy system.


19 posted on 11/25/2024 11:25:15 AM PST by GenXPolymath
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To: hardspunned

bkmk


20 posted on 11/25/2024 11:28:03 AM PST by sauropod ("This is a time when people reveal themselves for who they are." James O'Keefe Ne supra crepidam)
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