PA Mail In Ballot Numbers--What they don't want you to know

University of Florida Election Lab ^ | November 4, 2024 | University of Fl Election Lab

[cgbg]

The failure of Democrats to vote early is not just in PA—it is a national trend that I have been posting about here for the past few days.

This is not a fluke.

The Harris campaign is demoralizing Democrat voters.

[kvanbrunt2]

Here are my numbers from 10/30
number party_group_code ballot_Status
880228 D Vote Recorded
501286 R Vote Recorded
308850 D Pending
206111 R Pending
132426 NF Vote Recorded
94965 NF Pending
26496 D Cancelled
16021 I Vote Recorded
14534 R Cancelled
13206 OTH Vote Recorded
6721 OTH Pending
6157 I Pending
5426 D
4249 NF Cancelled
3882 LN Vote Recorded
3335 LN Pending
2573 R
1259 NF
485 I Cancelled
327 OTH Cancelled
172 OTH
136 LN Cancelled
108 I
45 LN

[HIDEK6]

I have a blue-dog democrat friend who has a modicum of sense.

I can see that he would just not vote for Heels Up and then vote rat for the rest of the ticket.

[pghbjugop]

How does more early voting produce results sooner. On the surface you would think it would if all votes were counted by hand, but yet, I don’t believe, any state counts it mail votes until the day of election. As far as in person voting, whether your precinct has 1,000 EV in the kitty and 1,000 on election day, the machine still spits out 2,000 votes, it doesn’t take any more time to do so. Are you saying if less mail in votes are made, then they can finish counting those mail in votes sooner, which took days to count 4 years ago?

[Captainpaintball]

Mail in ballots where I work are NOT put in with the rest of the mail this election… they are handled by supervisors ( !) and driven to the lockbox location. This was never done before, and also would normally cause concern with the union because non carriers should not be touching the mail. But of course the union really has no problem with this… I wonder why… This also causes the ballots to avoid being run through the sorting machine and thus having a recorded image and proof it really ever existed.

[nfldgirl]

Concerned that the R position didn’t change.

[cgbg]

The votes are counted on election day.

Obviously if you have the votes first thing in the morning you can begin counting them—first thing in the morning.

[cgbg]

You should not be concerned.

These numbers are amazing.

There is no down side to them.

[SarahPalin2012]

You guys are not considering that matching the 0.6M of 2020 this year is a remarkable feat as there is no covid. It’s very rare for states 2024 to be matching mail ballots from 2020, so to match it is a significant feat. The Dems are nowhere near matching it in most states — that’s the point. Even if our decreased to 0.4 or 0.5M we’d be doing well, but we are at 0.6M. It did not increase, but you guys are missing that this is a non-covid year for mail in — so matching is actually amazing.

[struggle]

Halperin said that if Ds can get a 500k margin, they’ll be on stabler ground.

They’re at 400k.

[willk]

I would feel better if Trump had better leads in PA with the more reliable pollsters out there. In some, his lead actually decreased from mid October. Right now those pollsters have Trump up between 1-2. Would have been nice if it was 3-5. I do realize this could be because most pollsters are not taking into account the increased Republican registrations in the past 4 years and the difficulty they have polling white Republicans.

[dfwgator]

It comes down to white male turnout. We turn out, Trump wins.

[cgbg]

You can do the math.

The Dems “won” PA by 80K in 2020.

700K - 80K means Dems are 620K behind breakeven at this moment.

That is a mega-disaster for the Dems.

[cgbg]

Who should I believe—pollsters or early votes that have already been cast by real voters?

Decisions, decisions.

:-)

[MortMan]

Left you feeling deflated?

[struggle]

>That is a mega-disaster for the Dems.

Well, it depends on how indies swing, etc., but yeah, Trump is WAY ahead of 2020. And with low black turnout in Philly and Pittsburg (I think EV was 50% of 2020), it’s really looking bad for them, especially if black males vote Trump.

[enumerated]

I’m in PA - right - there’s no early in person voting - but you can request a mail in ballot in-person and immediately turn it in in-person - effectively you are voting early in-person.

I’m voting tomorrow - I hope you are right (fingers crossed) about no cannibalization.

I’m feeling a little guilty about not taking 10 people in my circle with me to vote.. unfortunately, here in Philly’s northern suburbs I’d Montgomery county, I literally have never met anyone who is anywhere close to being undecided.

People I know are broken glass crawlers for Trump or Harris - there’s no ambivalence or fence sitting, people I know either love Trump or hate him. Even my kids who loved Ron Paul hate Trump. I don’t get it. They use to be ultra conservative - then my four boys married leftist women and my two girls married leftist men.. I feel like a failure.

So it’s just me and my wife going to vote tomorrow and she doesn’t need any convincing to vote Trump.

[cgbg]

I agree with you—undecided voters are a myth of pundits with too much time on their hands.

[SarahPalin2012]

You’re talking like we have no clue about how indies swing. We can be pretty confident that they’ve been favoring Trump by 6 to 8 points (like 49-43 with rest 3rd party). If there is low effect from cheating (there is definitely cheating, but hoping a low effect) — then this isn’t close.

[struggle]

>You’re talking like we have no clue about how indies swing.

Yeah, no one knows. Right/Wrong track is 28/65, so if they’re voting economy (likely) or immigration (a little less likely), then it’s over. But if it’s a bunch of unknown women voting abortion (doubtful), look out.