Pennsylvania Ping!
Please ping me with articles of interest.
FReepmail me to be added to the list.
Posted on 11/04/2024 8:38:43 AM PST by cgbg
Additional link for comparison:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/
2020: D 1.7M R .6M 2024: D 1.0M R .6M
I have not seen this discussed anywhere.
It is an instructive data point, and whether or not it is relevant will be revealed in about 36 hours. Thanks for staying on top of this.
Is this good or bad?
We won’t know for 36 hours definitively, but many people think it bodes well for Trump.
My take, The Dems are starting out with less of a LEAD.
It is very very good.
:-)
“My take, The Dems are starting out with less of a LEAD.”
Yes, .7 million less of a lead. I also have to wonder how many of those Democrats are actually voting for Trump.
For pretty much all prez elections, pre Trump and post Trump, about 7% of GOP registered voters vote Dem, and 7% of Dem registered voters vote GOP.
It has nothing to do with never Trumpers and it has nothing to do with anger about dumping Biden. It’s the number that usually exists for cross party voting.
Why?
Known as their “firewall” and yes, it’s 700K less than then 2020. In a nutshell if the relative %s of ED voting remain roughly similar, Trump wins easily.
This is the place to start to understand mail in voting:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/american-voters-expectations-for-voting-this-year/
According to this article:
“39% of Harris supporters expect to vote absentee or by mail, while just 17% of Trump supporters expect to use this method”
I leave the rest of the math as an exercise.
ChatGPT used to be limited to Sept 2022 info and earlier, but a query about this year’s early votes now says
as of early November, nationwide early votes exceed 65 million.
I guess that at 40ish% of total votes to be cast this year.
Generally, but according to a NYT/Sienna poll, Trump maintains a 5% advantage in Dem crossovers in a composite of the 7 battelgound states.
This link shows 78 million early votes (mail in + in person)—would expect more updates later in the day:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Good data.
Pennsylvania Ping!
Please ping me with articles of interest.
FReepmail me to be added to the list.
That is nudging up towards 50% of the likely total.
The way I read it is that Republican early voting is about the same as 2020 while democrats are down close to 40%.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.