Posted on 10/21/2024 10:33:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
AtlasIntel, known for its accurate national polling in 2020, recently released a new set of numbers for the 2024 race. And boy, are they a doozy.
According to the poll, Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris nationally by three points, with Trump at 50.7% and Harris at 47.6% with a full field.
In a head-to-head match-up, Trump leads 50.8% to Kamala’s 48.1%
HEAD-TO-HEAD SCENARIO
The time series for the scenario that includes only Trump and Harris reinforces this stability, with minimal fluctuations for both candidates since Harris entered the race.
pic.twitter.com/CQrV1nsGY9— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 19, 2024
At first glance, this is huge news for Donald Trump in the final weeks of the campaign. A lead like this in the national popular is widely seen as translating into a stunning Electoral College victory for him.
According to Nate Silver, a 2-3 point lead nationally for Trump would translate to a 100% chance of victory.
According to AtlasIntel's latest poll, Trump has a 2-3 point lead nationally. According to Nate Silver's Electoral College bias chart, that translates to a 100% chance of victory.
pic.twitter.com/NEKvuE5sYk— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) October 19, 2024
The Electoral College outcome should look something like this:
#NEW 2024 election forecast based on most accurate poll of 2020
Electoral college:
🔴 Trump: 323 🏆
🔵 Harris: 215
Popular vote:
🔴 Trump: 50.7% (+3.1)
🔵 Harris: 47.6%
Battleground margins:
🔵 ME: Harris+2.5
🔵 VA: Harris+1.8
🔵 NH: Harris+0.8
🔴 MN: Trump+1.4
🔴 MI:Trump+4.1🔴 NV: Trump+4.8
🔴 PA: Trump+5.7...
pic.twitter.com/xqi3hSWxPU— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 19, 2024
However, that’s not what their swing state polling shows.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
The main issue lies in the disconnect between Trump’s national lead and the battleground state data. If Trump truly has a two- to three-point edge across the country, he should be performing significantly better in swing states than this poll suggests.
The weird thing is, the poll shows Harris holding onto narrow leads in several key battlegrounds, like North Carolina and Wisconsin. It’s unlikely that any GOP candidate could have a solid national lead without also sweeping or dominating in these critical states.
Things get even more puzzling when you dive deeper into the specific state results. The poll shows Trump up by 2.5 points in Pennsylvania, 2.9 in Michigan, and 1.7 in Georgia in head-to-head matchups, while Harris leads by slim margins in states like Arizona and North Carolina. These numbers don’t quite add up. For one, it seems unlikely that Georgia would poll to the right of North Carolina and to the left of Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Another strange finding is that Trump’s largest leads are in Michigan and Pennsylvania. A strong lead in these states would logically bode better for him in Wisconsin, where AtlasIntel shows Kamala slightly ahead.
I’m just finding it hard to believe that Trump will perform better in Pennsylvania and Michigan than in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
The weird thing is, the poll shows Harris holding onto narrow leads in several key battlegrounds, like North Carolina and Wisconsin. It’s unlikely that any GOP candidate could have a solid national lead without also sweeping or dominating in these critical states.
Things get even more puzzling when you dive deeper into the specific state results. The poll shows Trump up by 2.5 points in Pennsylvania, 2.9 in Michigan, and 1.7 in Georgia in head-to-head matchups, while Harris leads by slim margins in states like Arizona and North Carolina. These numbers don’t quite add up. For one, it seems unlikely that Georgia would poll to the right of North Carolina and to the left of Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Another strange finding is that Trump’s largest leads are in Michigan and Pennsylvania. A strong lead in these states would logically bode better for him in Wisconsin, where AtlasIntel shows Kamala slightly ahead.
I’m just finding it hard to believe that Trump will perform better in Pennsylvania and Michigan than in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
This is another 2016 scenario IMO. I think Trump will stomp Harris.
The only question remaining is, Is there enough security against Democrat cheating?
2020 Oct 20: Biden 51, Trump 46
Trump is running up numbers in Cali and NY.
This may be both weird and real. The Fox news poll last week that showed up by two had him down by 6 (although with a high margin of error) in the battleground States.
This NYT article speculates that Trump is running up his margin in FL and adding support in CA and NY. So the assumption that a tie in the national vote gives the edge to Trump in the battleground States may be wrong.
Anyway: get out and vote and call your friends in battleground States.
They are polishing a brick or a turd.
>This is another 2016 scenario IMO. I think Trump will stomp Harris.
Yeah, it’s looking like (if there’s nothing stopping it) a real clock-cleaner for dems, but who knows. If VA or NH goes to Trump early, though, there’ll be no one committing fraud because of fear of investigation.
As Han Solo said to Luke Skywalker: “Don’t get cocky, kid.”
A lot can happen in two weeks.
“This is another 2016 scenario IMO. I think Trump will stomp Harris.”
Yes, if only legal ballots are counted. You mentioned cheating. This year it will monumental. In 2016 they had no clue that their normal pissant cheating would be ineffective. They learned well for 2020, and this will be worse.
And before, it was “only” cheating. The world is very aware that murder is not off the table for them this time around.
They have had NC Pro Harris through 2 polls, I believe last time they had her up 3 or 4 points or more there, and their claims toward this were due toe Governor’s race debacle.. or basically up ballot drag down on Trump....
I find this dubious because I really don’t see a down ballot race truly negatively affecting the Presidential race, particularly with Trump on the ballot, but we shall see.
later
They just want to be able to report 269-269. Everyone dreams about this every 4 years. Theorically Trump is doing better in NY and CA which moves the neddle nationally. It would be fair to ask why he would be doing better in NY and CA but that doesn’t translate anywhere else. More likely the sauce that they used in 2020 worked for 2020 but not 2024. Who can accurately predict the turnout. Anyone can b3 right or wrong.
Betting markets are moving to Trump
The best graphic.
That said, it's only if, AND ONLY IF we stimulate SUPER, NO GOP VOTER LEFT BEHIND ... TURNOUT!
Sorry for the shouting, this election is all about turnout, and what we can to support the legitimate votes of registered GOP voters.
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