Forget the polls -- Follow the money: The smart money is now backing Trump 60-40

American Thinker ^ | 10/21/2024 | Ed Sherdlu

[SeekAndFind]

The ever-present, ever-changing election polls reflect what a limited group of people think on a given day. But the billions of dollars wagered on 2024 Presidential election betting proves what a compendium of smart, wealthy people think will happen on Election Day.

Polls are opinions. Betting markets are opinions, too, but they are opinions backed up by billions of dollars. The smart money is now backing Trump 60-40.

Betting on everything from elections to the date of the first measurable snowfall in London has long been legal in the U.K. The internet, combined with the security of blockchain money movements, spread wagering worldwide. Billions have already been bet on this election. Billions more dollars, Euros, yen, and even rubles will be gambled before November 5.

Although the odds strongly favored Harris in the weeks after the Biden campaign bit the dust, the ongoing shift in bettors’ money-backed best guesses has now moved to Trump 3-2.

According to Forbes, the wagering giant Polymarket recently broke the 60% ceiling. This is the first time Pres. Trump enjoyed such a wide margin since Biden dropped out (or was dropped out, take your pick) from the race. The survey company Election Betting Odds aggregates the betting markets like Real Clear Politics combines pollsters' predictions. EBO has Trump at 57%. 

The U.S. pollsters do not favor Pres. Trump that highly. Even so, RCP now has Trump up in the critical swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and New Mexico. These are massive changes from two months ago. RCP is now predicting Trump would win with 312 of the required 270 electoral votes if the election were held today. Simply put, the projected ballots and bucks agree.

The critical information for us is not just the betting percentages. It’s how they are generated.

[SeekAndFind]

Consider this: These new numbers all come from people who are sure enough in their expectations to bet millions of dollars on the outcome. These are the “Smart Money People” who back up their feelings with hard cash.

[struggle]

If Kamala loses they are going to blame her and politics betting for depressing turn out

[dragnet2]

You got to be able to read the mood of the people. After 4 years of these lying, freedom hating Communist, it’s indeed a real foul mood. A few of us have been saying for many months, Trump is going to KO these people in the 1st round. Most people have just had enough of these nasty effing posers.

[TheThirdRuffian]

I would normally agree but bettors now know people look at this and have been placing bets to sway the results.

So it’s now meaningless, one way or the other.

[jerod]

The Biden administration is claiming that all the betting for Trump is by ‘foreigners’... Go figure.

[Linda Tripp]

I’m told poly market is a thin trade and easily manipulated The betting is global. Looks great but like most other things in life if it looks Too good to be true it probably is.

[knarf]

I follow a couple of pollsters and the money betters and they all are trending towards a Trump win.

[thegagline]

These new numbers all come from people who are sure enough in their expectations to bet millions of dollars on the outcome. These are the “Smart Money People” who back up their feelings with hard cash.

Las Vegas would like to thank for embracing the “Smart Money People” credo.

[Opinionated Blowhard]

A couple big bets were made by a very small handful of individuals on Trump, which skewed the results. The race is still very close and could go either way.

[Andy from Chapel Hill]

$2,185,604,474 bet on Polymarket in the POTUS race so far. That is probably more than is being spent on the election.

Yes, every once and a while it looks like somebody throws $100K for Kamala and another $100K betting Trump will lose, but the trendlines snap back within hours.

The betting to win is now:

Donald Trump 62.5%

Kamala Harris 37.4%

A gap of 25.1 points.

[TheThirdRuffian]

I agree.

My comment is more that the bettor data is not what it used to be.

[toast]

People betting on the likelihood of Trump winning is different than the polls of people on who they will vote for. The people betting are factoring the cheating in too. And Trump is still coming out on top.

[amihow]

Trump also needs to watch the voters.

The buzz about the majority of Christians dropping Trump because of his wishy washy acceptance of moŕe reasons to allow abortions, if true, could lose him the election.
As a long time supporter of Trump an̈d MAGA, I would encourage him to promote the pursuit of an entire culture of life where every reason women seek abortion is helped to overcome them.
We pro-lifers who essentially say no abortions and to the pregnant woman “ you are on your oown” are part of the problem. W

We can do better.

[Migraine]

Heritage Sports: SaladShooter = +133; DJT = -155

Those are real odds, reflecting real money bets. Hardly close.

[TexasGator]

“I’m told poly market is a thin trade and easily manipulated “

Over $1 billion bet per their website.

[LambSlave]

You are regurgitating leftist talking points. Where is the evidence? Even if their claims are true, (i) It was only claimed for one betting site, yet these results are uniform across all of them.
(ii) There is currently over $2.20 B bet at that site on the presidential election. Please explain how $0.01B could have any impact at all?

[TheElectionWasStolen]

Follow the need for a steal, to prevent many from going to prison. Or at least that potential.