Posted on 10/20/2024 6:38:12 PM PDT by lasereye
AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster in 2020.
AtlasIntel had the best performance across all pollsters of the 2020 US Presidential Election with an average error of 2.01p.p. Our final national-level poll showing Biden with a 4.7 p.p. advantage is likely to be the single most precise estimate of the US popular vote. AtlasIntel also conducted the most precise polls across all pollsters for the states of Michigan and North Carolina. In all states polled by AtlasIntel, results fell within the margin of error of our estimates. The AtlasIntel average error was not only lower than that of other pollsters, but also lower than that of polling averages and model-based polling aggregators (see figures below):Earlier in the 2020 election cycle, AtlasIntel provided the most accurate forecasts of the Democratic Primary races by average RMSE, including the single best polls of New Hampshire, California, and Florida.
This unparalleled performance is a testimony of the quality of our methodology and the robustness of our innovative data collection approach. All of AtlasIntel polling in the United States has been conducted online, disproving long-standing arguments regarding the superiority of live-caller telephone interviews.
I don’t think Stein gets less than 1% either. It’s probably more like 3% across third parties.
Nate Silver thinks they are number 1.
Yes, they are the best polling company. This is huge - first time in 20 years that a Republican is leading in late October.
You know what would be absolutely delicious? All those leftist states that passed laws giving electoral votes to the popular vote winner having to give them to Trump
Their state polling pretty much puts this out of reach for Kamala so we will see
If that is anywhere near accurate we are going to see some surprises on Nov. 5. I wonder if fireworks orders are being cancelled?
Hillary ended up +2 in the popular vote in 2016, and lost most of the rust belt and other swing states and lost the election.
Biden ended up +4.5 in the popular vote, and barely won.
If Trump ends up +3 in the popular vote, that’s a 5 point shift from 2016 and a 7 point shift from 2020. He’ll win all swing states, plus Virginia and Minnesota.
I’m not counting on Trump carrying the popular vote by 3 points, but this poll is good news any way you look at it.
And yes, I know, Dems cheat in elections and all that. I’m just saying using the supposedly ‘official’ figures, for 2016 & 2020, this is really bad news for Kamala.
You’re talking about the fraudulent National Popular Vote Interstate Compact that doesn’t have enough States to go into effect.
They need enough States to reach 270 before the courts kill it for being unconstitutional.
However, after Trump wins the popular vote we should let them know what the EV count would’ve been if this stupidity was the in play.
All points within the MOE are equally likely to represent the actual population being sampled from. Therefore, there is no such animal as “most accurate.” There is only “inside the MOE” and “outside the MOE.”
And this is before considering that all pollsters are guessing at who will actually vote.
I have never seen a TV news talking head or a TV pollster talk about this, therefore making me wonder if any of them has actually taken a basic statistics course.
They are all claiming a precision that the method is incapable of delivering. No matter how hard you squint, a yardstick can never be used as a micrometer.
hey Kamala... Servicing Willie Brown in a McDonalds parking lot, does not count as working at McDonalds
Actual final numbers 2020
51.3% Biden 46.8% Trump
Atlas final poll results Oct 26 – Oct 28 2020
50.9% Biden 46.2% Trump
Pretty amazing.
What are you talking about?
Are you talking about before or after the election?
Harris might as well be a cum rag at this point.
The democrats will find a new one for 2028.(Hopefully Gretchen instead of Gavin)
YES!!!
LMAO!!!
Doesn’t the margin of error vary with the degree of reliability one wants? So a 50% POE would be narrower than a 95% POE?
I refuse to be overconfident but I suspect and pray you’re right. But if you’re right and Virginia falls, then likely New Hampshire and New Mexico too. Who knows? New Jersey could be a wild card. Look what Halle does in the gubernatorial election
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.