You misspelled "spokescucks"... 
Posted on 10/06/2024 3:29:31 PM PDT by Red6
“See, Bob - there’s no rationalization that these guys will not cling to, like the sodden and freezing passengers from the Titanic.”
Great point - the working theory, at this point, is that when the Neocons lose in Ukraine, they won’t accept the fact that they lost to Russia, rather they’ll blame North Korea and Iran (and China too) for helping Russia and go around spouting that it’s not the Russians that beat us, it’s those other bad guys - so Russia still sucks (in their sick world, at least).
...and we’ll have to suffer with that tripe, not only in the Western Media, but with their spokesmen ON THIS SITE too.
Ukraine has been drafting men over military age. Many are leaving the country. They have run critically low of draft age men.
You misspelled "spokescucks"...
Russia seems to have been able to counter every “game changer” weapon NATO has thrown at them. The latest is the F-16s. Where are they?
Rockets have no guidance system.
Missiles have some sort of guidance.
FYI
Alexander Mercouris spoke about "trouble in River City" [Mykolaiv] in the last several days:
59:31 ...and these reports about demoralization across the length of the Ukrainian Army are apparently far from exclusive to the situation in Vuhledar.There's a report today that another brigade - men from another brigade have in effect mutinied, that they've left the brigade. That they've attended some kind of protest near the city of Mykolaiv.
There's a photo of them doing so. They're complaining that they're in no condition to fight - that they have received barely any training and any equipment, and that if they are sent to fight - in effect that would be to condemn them to all but certain death.
Now, I've seen pictures of the men who are supposedly drawn from this brigade - the one that's from which they've mutinied, and who've turned up and I have to say that if these men who are protesting close to Mykolaiv really are Ukrainian soldiers or the current crop of Ukrainian soldiers, then one can immediately see why Ukraine's army is in serious trouble.
Because, well - I don't know very much about soldiers but these men do not look to me like men who are fit to be combat soldiers. Some of them are obviously obese, a lot of them are elderly - none of them looks in particularly good health or strong or fit.
I mean, a less military-looking group of people I could barely imagine - just saying.
They train via paint ball fantasies. Sounds alot like DEI. Not good imo.
“This war in Ukraine will take many of our key weapon systems, what our own military depends on, and significantly reduce its capabilities since how they work, even our tricks, are known and solid countermeasures and tactics have been developed.”
That is a reason that mostly older stuff was provided to Ukraine - Vietnam-era M-113s, Desert Storm-era Bradleys, and a bunch of Eastern Europe’s old Soviet-era gear. Many advanced, modern things have been withheld, specifically to prevent the Russians from developing countermeasures.
The munitions provided Ukraine are doing just what they were originally designed and funded to do - defeat that specific old Soviet arsenal, if the Russians ever launched it.
That job is getting done, as the Soviet storage yards steadily ship their gear to scrapyards in Ukraine. Russia is far less capable than the USA to replace these losses (and even less capable than NATO). They have been losing roughly 10 tanks for every new one they can produce. The rest are being refurbished from storage, which is steadily running out. The situation is similar for Artillery, and worse for Aircraft, some types of which can simply no longer be produced at all.
Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) analysts, like Covert Cabal (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzMV_BNHRP71kMA7ZZ95MaA ) have been counting down the old Soviet arsenal from commercial satellite imagery.
Bottom Line: Hard constraints start hitting Russia’s main combat platforms in 2025 and 2026, at current rates of losses.
T-72 and T-80 tank stocks are running out (those in the best condition were drawn from storage first). Most of the howitzers are gone from the storage yards already, and most of those remaining have been stripped of their barrels, to replace the thousands of barrels that the Russians have already worn out, firing 10,000 to 50,000 rounds per day. Russia is now down to less than 30 each of their TOS-1A Thermobaric Rocket Launchers remaining in operational condition, in their entire Military.
Ka-52 Attack Helicopters, Su-24 and Su-25 jets, Air Defense Systems - even those electronic warfare systems - are running down toward the point that Russia will no longer be able to keep the same numbers operating in theater (if current losses continue).
Ukraine was central to the Soviet Defense Industrial Base, and they know the Russian production system as well as the Russians do. Ukraine has been targeting key capabilities and chokepoints in Russian Defense production. Key metallurgical capabilities required to make high strength Artillery tubes and modern armor are now offline (burned out husks) in Russia.
Russia has a only a few percent of the GDP of the combined NATO countries - less than the GDP of Texas, or California. Russia is now the most heavily sanctioned country on Earth. They have spent through almost all of their financial reserves, and have printed money to the point of runaway inflation. The base interest rate from the Central Bank of Russia is 19%, and expected to rise at their next meeting.
Putin is driving Russia over the cliff economically, and demilitarizing his Military inheritance from the old Soviet Union at a hectic pace.
That was my understanding but the two words seem to be being used interchangeably.
SpirituTuo, as to your fantasies about casualties, both sides have taken a beating and lie about casualties, see slide 16. These were leaked and are what our own government thinks to be the “truth” as of a year ago: https://www.newsweek.com/2023/05/05/read-leaked-secret-intelligence-documents-ukraine-vladimir-putin-1794656.html#slideshow/2222794
Early on the Russians were in disarray caused by a much more effective Ukrainian defense than anticipated. Largely because of our arming, training, and feeding Ukraine Intel. Some of these weapons we provided in large quantities, ~10,000 Javelin’s are a game changers against an armored mechanized force.
But... the Russians pulled their head from their rear fairly quickly and began adapting their tactics as well as implementing new tech to deal with the threats. The Russians do have R&D, industry, manufacturing. Guess who had the Covid vaccine first? Guess how we got to space and why many of our astronauts had to speak Russian for many years? Even now! https://apnews.com/article/international-space-station-capsule-russians-americans-earth-5fa5492856400fb9e1ac1275c8364ea3 We fight a bunch of idiots in the Middle East (literally) and then think the next guy we get tangled up with is also an idiot, but ask some of the American mercenaries (many military and combat vets) if it’s the same fighting the Russians.
The next problem the Russians faced was their dwindling war stock. Iran and China stepped in and helped bridge the gap as the Russian war machine ramped up production. These weren’t some super high tech weapons, but simple things like primitive drones, artillery shells, mortar rounds, rockets for their MLRS systems... Russia was burning through their stockpiles faster than their peacetime economy could support and they couldn’t ramp up fast enough.
Then Ukraine decided to go on the offensive in 2023 (forgotten now) and they burned through 9 brigades (see slide 20 and 21) of mostly Western equipped and for them their best trained folks. Offensives can be costly and this is pure speculation, but I would guess that the advantage Ukraine had in a casualty ratio went away at that point. You can’t win a war in a defense usually, but when in a position like Ukraine, it would have been smart to play it safe and conserve forces for the long war of attrition that was likely to ensue and simply write off the lost territory.
The logical explanation for why Ukraine went offensive when they did was weather, when the forces were ready (trained and equipped), but also as both Ukraine and Russia mobilize for war, the Russians have a definite numerical advantage (industry, manufacturing, population, number of military aged males). Time is against Ukraine, so if they are going on the offense, if they plan to take back what they see as theirs, they had to do it soon.
Ukraine’s counter offensive of 2023 was a fiasco (of course downplayed and quickly forgotten by our media) and set them back in the bigger picture. That was realistically the last true chance Ukraine had to “win” the war. Had the Ukrainians actually achieved a true penetration of the Russian defensive lines and been able to pursue a retreating force, they could have caused devastating damage to the Russian forces and their national morale, but that didn’t happen (except in our media that hyped it up as such a victory but then stop talking about it when if failed). Ukraine will no longer be able to build a force that size for offensive operations.
At this point, the best Ukraine can do is fight a war of attrition in defensive and delaying operations where they are slowly trading space for time, and that is indeed what we are seeing for many months, basically since the failed 2023 offense.
This is simply not going the way you wish it were. Wishful thinking or saying something is a certain way, even repeatedly, doesn’t make it so. Ukraine would not be losing territory day after day, month after month for the last 6 months if they could stop it.
“Then Ukraine decided to go on the offensive in 2023 (forgotten now) and they burned through 9 brigades (see slide 20 and 21) of mostly Western equipped and for them their best trained folks.”
It is true that that Ukrainian offensive in the South (Spring/Summer 2023) failed (thanks to Russian “Surovikin Line” defenses, millions of mines, inadequate air cover and late delivery of planned equipment from Allies), but those Brigades were not destroyed in the process. They were just unable to achieve their objectives, and stopped advancing. Those units continue to operate today. The (Ukrainian) 82nd is in Kursk today.
No,
We didn’t give Ukraine old junk.
That’s exactly the problem. We’re not arming one retard (Iraq) to fight another retard (Iran) by giving them stockpiles of obsolete weapon systems like we did in that war for many years.
We gave Ukraine Bradley’s with ERA and Stryker’s we still use, recovery and engineering vehicles we use, Javelins we use, HIMARS we use, M777 we use, Excalibur we use, Q37 and 64 we use, certain drones we use, the Stinger we use...
When a new weapon system is fielded, it has a predicted effective lifespan. When you have a war, and a “capable” enemy who develops counters to this system, it’s lifespan is shortened.
I suppose if you work for the US defense industry, that is a good thing, since even after the Ukraine war ends, we will need to address this regards our own forces and equipment. The hemorrhaging of money won’t stop only in this case it’s actually needed to keep our boys safe.
Hint: There are no Soviet storage yards. You seriously need to crawl out from that rock you live under.
25 December 1993, new Constitution, no more Soviet Union: http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-01.htm
Since then, they decentralized, privatized, and they have (((LESS))) GDP that is government than we have! Do you understand what I’m telling you? The government share in the economy is SMALLER than it is in the so-called free market USA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_spending_as_percentage_of_GDP
“… HIMARS sometimes misses its target by more than 50 feet (15 meters).”
I still wouldn’t feel safe at 60 feet from where it hits.
Kursk: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgan%27s_Raid
OK, Ukraine will soon have a glorious victory. Start holding your breath! (sarc)
When this war is over, Ukraine will be an economic basket case (not Russia, Ukraine). Ukraine will have lost >16% of it’s landmass and even more of their population (mass refugees). They will have lost a major industrial area and port city where near all their steel industry sits, and they will (((NOT))) be in NATO, the cause of this war: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/. How will we spin that?
One thing this war in Ukraine proved. Perceptions are reality.
:)
“Mines do work well. But they need to be observed.”
Yes. Minefields are useless if they’re not defended.
Agree
ROFL. In support of the article, I would point out that I watch the 2/day updates from Military Summary Channel. When HIMARS were first deployed it was fairly common to hear reports of the damage they were doing to Russian assets. Whereas the last few months, I can't think of the last time I heard of HIMARS doing anything. The only mentions I can recall are of Russian videos of HIMARS being destroyed.
“Hint: There are no Soviet storage yards.”
Like there is no KGB. The same guys at the same desks doing the same things, but with a new FSB sign. There are in fact storage yards in Russia, established by the Soviet Union (thereby, the adjective “Soviet” does literally apply to them), where Military equipment of Soviet design and Soviet manufacture are stored - far more than post-Soviet Russia ever made. It is that large Soviet inheritance that Putin is rapidly expending in Ukraine - the bulk of Russia’s war materiel.
“Do you understand what I’m telling you? The government share in the economy is SMALLER than it is in the so-called free market USA“
Your link showed a marginal difference (36.5 vs. 38.5), but that was in 2022, before Russia decided to convert to a wartime economy. During most of 2022, no sanctions were yet in place on Russia’s oil and gas industries, and oil and gas prices shot to historic highs.
Since then (i.e., now), Russia’s Government spending has skyrocketed, their natural gas export volumes have collapsed, and natural gas prices (Dutch TTF) are only 1/7th of their brief 2022 peak. Several Russian industries have seen more than 50% contractions due to sanctions and loss of customers - non-Defense manufacturing, tourism, civil aviation, advertising; to name a few.
Russia’s reported few percent growth in GDP over the last two years has been dwarfed by the 20% and 25% annual expansions in their money supply - more proportionally than the USA or EU did during COVID.
Unlike Ukraine, which receives generous long term aid commitments from most of the richest countries on Earth, nobody gives Russia anything. Nobody. Not China, not Iran, not North Korea. It is cash on the barrel for Russia, and the cash is running out quickly.
“When this war is over, Ukraine will be an economic basket case (not Russia)”
Russia doesn’t have to wait until the war is over to be an economic basket case, it is already third behind basket cases Argentina and Turkey within the G20, for inflation and interest rates. The ruble is already a dead currency for International trade. China won’t use it, India won’t - nobody wants to have to hold rubles, if they have any other choice (outside Oppressive Russian jurisdiction).
Russia has already lost the bulk of the European Natural Gas customers that made up 85% of its Natural Gas exports in 2021, before Putin’s latest invasion. Forbes reports that once mighty Gazprom was the least profitable business in Russia during 2023. Putin did that - he is a Master Strategist.
Nordstream is already destroyed and rusting away on the sea floor. Russian gas flows through the Druzhba Pipeline cease in less than 3 months (year’s end), after more than 60 years, and the former customers have built new infrastructure and signed long term contracts with new suppliers. Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline has been put on hold (by China), and the Arctic 2 LNG project has also been killed on the vine, by sanctions. Russia’s main economic driver now is printing money to buy things to blow them up, and to pay people big bonuses to die.
After the war, Russia will have to deal with the issue of reparations for damages done, as the invasion has already been declared illegal in The Hague and the UN.
Ukraine’s EU accession is being fast tracked, and a long term facility for EU funding of Ukraine has been formally established. We may hear more about Ukraine’s “inevitable” membership in NATO (the term used in the official communique from the last NATO Summit) at next week’s (12 Oct) Ramstein Conference, the first to be attended by the Head’s of State.
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