Hmm: Trump's Margins Expanded Significantly When a Pollster Asked Voters This Question

Townhall ^ | October 03, 2024 2:01 PM | Guy Benson

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Polling continues to show a very tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The incumbent vice president has a very narrow lead nationally, in the RealClearPolitics average. Some battleground polling gives Trump small leads in most of the swing states. Other battleground polling seems to slightly favor Harris. Pennsylvania continues to look crucial and tied. One pollster that recently released a batch of generally Trump-positive data from key battleground states (not dissimilar to this set of numbers from 2020's most accurate pollster) also included an intriguing note about their results.

Before we get to that, here were the results themselves:

...

We see signs of Donald Trump gaining momentum in each of the states we surveyed where he led and potentially even in Georgia, where the race is tied. Our surveys contain only the horserace and demographics, but we added a question following a response to the horserace which asks respondents how they believe “the majority” of their neighbors will vote. This has been a reliable component of evaluating prior Trump races, eliminating the “shy Trump” voter issue. In each state the response to “the neighbors” question expanded Trump’s lead well beyond the margin of error. But it is important to note that all of the results in the horserace surveys are well within the margins of error, which makes this an extremely close contest.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

we added a question following a response to the horserace which asks respondents how they believe “the majority” of their neighbors will vote. This has been a reliable component of evaluating prior Trump races, eliminating the “shy Trump” voter issue. In each state the response to “the neighbors” question expanded Trump’s lead well beyond the margin of error.

[MNDude]

the most reliable poll question is “How do you think the vote counters in your area will vote?”

[JimRed]

Beyond the margin of error, but not beyond the margin of fraud.

[SunkenCiv]

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