Posted on 09/28/2024 8:41:16 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
Worth a watch. Most accurate polling firm last election deep diving their latest polling.
Long but lots of good intel.
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Slotkin is losing. Trump is winning.
https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2024
This guy claims title of best polling (2022). Not good, BTW.
Based on the numbers in this poll compared to where Joke was in 2020, Skamala isn’t anywhere near where she needs to be. My new prediction is Trump wins with 312.
The two cross tabs that matter in this race, the important voting groups that are also difficult to poll are the dead and the institutionalized. These two groups will determine the outcome of the election. They will tilt very heavily Democrat so the turnout numbers will be important.
I’m counting on you (also with you)
Basically the only thing that is concerning to me is NC
If Trump loses NC and NV he must win 2 of the rust belt states
Whereas if he wins NC then any Rust Belt state is a win, regardless of NV.
Now I have a difficult time believing NC is going to be lost, but these guys know their numbers.
I find it difficult that a local race is going to swing as much at these guys say the presidential race.. but given the MOE is 3 and the polling difference is 3.5 this could be very close.
Given the only time NC has gone red was a 2008 for Obama and even then only by .23% since 1976. I really have a hard time believing NC will flip, but if it does it does make it harder for Trump
2022 was a midterm and Trump was not on the ballot, I would be hesitant to take “best” of a midterm vs best of the last 2 presidentials
Guys giving Dems an advantage due to the economy?!? Sorry don’t care what 2022 outcomes were for their model that’s just bs
They don’t believe their own pole on the black and hispanic vote for trump in PA.
Sample size can hugely skew results for subgroups.
If you only poll 30 people in a particular sub group the numbers you get are meaningless as an indicator for that group.. far too small of a sample.
Too many people fall for that stuff they look at a poll that shows a group goign a way they normally don’t go by a large margin and ignore that the poll only asked a sample that is far too small to extrapolate that the outcome of their small sampling is representative
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