Posted on 09/27/2024 7:41:12 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
Is this election close?, the battleground states
Continuing the discussion from yesterday, time to look at the battleground states.
The “punditry” tells the world that these 7 states are the battleground states for this election. Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.
Looking the real clear polling for each of these. GA and NC appear to be solid Trump, though within the margin of error (MOE), nearly all polling has Trump up in these states. Personally I think it has been wishful thinking on the part of many people that either of these states are considered “in play”. I could of course be completely wrong, but NC has only gone blue one time since 1976, and that was Obama’s first term, where they squeaked out a .42% win. Some might argue in NC, given the trouble the Republican Gubernatorial candidates has found himself in, that this could perhaps have an impact on the Presidential election… Personally I doubt that theory, and would expect NC to go to Trump by 3-5 points when the smoke clears. I don’t think when the dust settles NC is going to be terribly close. GA on the other hand on paper does look a little more competitive and Biden did manage to eek out a .23% win in 2020 there. However, I suspect when the dust settled Trump will carry the state by 3-5 points come election day. Polling is fairly the same in NC and GA… tight but Trump’s favor.
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“Looking the real clear polling for each of these”
That is the flaw in this analysis.
Actually read the article.
“Is this election close?”
Depends on who you talk with and how much the parties can get awy with.
wy69
If we believe it’s close, it’s easier for them to hide the cheating.
I firmly believe this election is now Trump’s to lose.
1) World leaders have been flocking to sit down and talk to Trump.
2) Zuckerberg claims to now be a Libertarian and is “reaching out to Trump”.
3) The FBI nabs Diddy so they can secure all the video before Trump’s FBI can get it.
4) There are reports that they are now processing illegal immigrants as fast as possible.
It should not even be close. The fact that we have to ask is evidence of an embarrassing amount of stupidity among the people who vote and corruption among the people who are voted for.
White liberal women and their bloodlust for abortion and the mentally ill. That’s why this is even close. The 47%.
Around here, Trump yard signs are springing up like weeds in July. Only a few what’s her name signs anywhere, even at houses that had Buydung signs in 2020.
See the Democrats realized their mistake with Hillary by claiming that she had this tremendous lead & touted this tremendous lead all the way up to the election. They still cheated, but they cheated to give her an overwhelming national majority vote, unconcerned about the electoral vote.
That loss forced the Democrats to adjust their theft strategies. You are witnessing that strategy being played out.
It worked in 2020, but will it work for 2024 with Kamala?
Here in Austin I’ve seen two Harris/Walz signs and no Trump signs. I’d put up a Trump sign however 1) my wife wants to keep her job as a teacher 2) I just had the exterior of my house painted.
North Carolina electorate is 23% black, far above the national average. Population gains as of 2022 have been predominantly white.
Georgia electorate is 30% black, far above the national average. Population gains as of 2022 have been predominantly black. Black gains average 47K/yr. That would be 188K since 2020 to today, but while black gains have been predominant, there have been white gains, too.
Overall population has gained 401K since 2020. Some Hispanic but in general White increase not many fewer than the 188K black gains.
Watched a YouTube vid showing Harris up by +3 nationwide. It was an NBC report of selected polling averages (not RCP) and naturally NBC is not Trump friendly.
Interestingly, Kamala was at 80% with black voters, and this was an average of multiple polls. Biden got 92% of the black vote in 2020. Some blacks will probably ‘come home’ on election day, but even 85% would be a big problem for Dems.
Trump was at 41% with Hispanics, again not Trump friendly polling, but that is about a 33% increase over 2020. Some other polls show more support from Hispanics, but even 41% is a major swing toward Trump.
So, how is Kamala at +3 in the polling average nationwide when she is doing much worse with both blacks and Hispanics than Biden did?
My guess is that most of the pollsters haven’t figured out how to factor in the trouble Harris is having with minorities and they’re still using turnout figures for minorities from earlier election years.
” Looking the real clear polling”
Great minds think alike.
Real Clear Politics is an average of old and garbage polls.
Why would ANYONE rely on their data?
Polls in general are a joke and shouldn’t be believed.
F polls.
ZERO votes have been cast/counted.
No, it is not close. Trump has now underpolled by 2.1 national average in two straight elections. So add 2.1 to any national poll.
But the state polling errors were far worse: avg. error of 6 points in WI (toward Ds), average error of over 4 point in OH (toward Ds) average error of 2 points (toward Ds in MN). And so on.
When you factor in the average STATE margin of error, Trump is on schedule for a national popular vote win and a 312 MINIMUM EC victory. However, the early vote out of VA is showing significant D shortfalls from 2020, with significant R gains, and most of all, the “low propensity voters” are NOT Trump+17 as Baris predicted last year.
They are Trump +33.
Yes, Harris is running well behind Biden or Hillary in lots of key Democrat demographics blacks, hispanics, etc.. in fact some polls have Trump flat out winning the Hispanic vote.
The Quinnipiac poll that came out earlier this week is just DEVASTATING for Harris.. while the poll claimed a tie at the national level.. Historically Quinnipiac is AWEFUL.. the overestimate Democrats by astranomical proportions in every single poll.
So, if they best they can do is show her tied, she’s in big trouble. Base don histrocial performance if Kamala was only up 1 she would likely show up in the quinnipiac poll as up 7-10, that’s how bad their polling has been for decades.
Digging into the poll you see all the patterns we are discussing, she’s underperforming in nearly every single demorat demographic.
Now its possible Quinnipiac has somehow adjusted their techniques, sampling and weighting to have a poll showing “EVEN”.. but based on history.. this poll should have anyone supporting dems panicking.
WI, MI and PA will be tough for Trump, Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee will massively cheat. That is why Trump is pushing hard for early voting. The difference this year may be Turning Point. They are bring people into WI, PA and MI as drop box monitors, going to Nursing Homes and getting elderly voters to the polls or helping them fill out ballots. Essentially everything the RATS do.
While I believe there will be massive cheating in those States, I am curious about one thing. If the RATs thought Harris could win, Newsome, Cooper, Shapiro or Whitmer would have been on the ticket. While Harris as President would be a disaster, Any of the above would be strong candidates in 2028 or later. If Harris wins, they are out of National politics until 2032, that's a long time to leave your starting line up on the bench. Maybe the RAT leaders really do not want Harris to win and this is all smoke and mirrors. Just a thought.
This is positive on first glance as Trump ran well ahead of key state polls in both 2016 and 2020. (Part of why Trump could never get traction on the notion the 2020 election was stolen is that all of his narrow losses were much closer than the 2%-3% losses the polls were predicting.)
The concern I continue to have is that polls are not weighted to 2024’s turnout structure. Harris has 5x the cash and staff Trump does to turn out high propensity demographics and locales. A LOT of the middle-aged and senior white voters who delivered Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 and kept 2020 close are dead, too infirm to vote, or moved to Florida, Texas or South Carolina where their votes go from decisive to superfluous.
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