Why Are Election Projections So Divergent?

Hotair ^ | 09/20/2024 | David Strom

[nwrep]

If Trump's numbers are better today than in 2020, and Harris is doing worse with labor, blacks, and Hispanics, how do these polls make sense?

Simple. Trump is doing worse with Whites. An obvious answer that eludes the author.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Simple. Trump is doing worse with Whites.

Is he? If so, why?

[grey_whiskers]

IBTZ

[IncPen]

If they predict a big Kamala win, it serves to enrage the leftist lunatics if she loses. If they really think she’s going to lose, they’ll promote the win that much more.

The fact that they’re calling it a dead heat tells me they think the steal is going to work.

If they weren’t cheating, it would be a historic Trump landslide.

[Theoria]

Less white boomers than 2020, more cat ladies and trannies. Younger males checking out and don’t care, not even playing the political game.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: IBTZ

Please translate

[pfflier]

I suspect you missed the sarcasm.

[Owen]

Nothing quite so damaging for a numbers person is to have a conversation with people and gather anecdotes.

It corrupts thinking. It flat out does corrupt thinking.

I’ll add an item.

This is about Swamp Filth, and there is no more horrible form of it than “campaign staff”. They get paid and that has to come from fundraising.

A campaign staff that senses revenue flow slowing down will pull out all stops to restore it, and that means buying pollster results. Donors won’t write a check for big leads or big deficits. They will for close races.

[KierkegaardMAN]

Worse with whites? Twaddle.

[oldtech]

I have that same question. Why would Trump be doing poorly with whites? I figure if most of them have half the brain matter of a golf ball, they will vote for Trump.

[XEHRpa]

Because, while they try to tell you the purpose of polling is to tell you what people are thinking, they are, in reality, trying to tell you what people should be thinking.

It's all part of Matrix programming.

[clearcarbon]

"Most of the polls show Harris with a very modest lead in the national horserace, although one that doesn't match Biden's in 2020. That, in itself, should make you a bit skittish about believing that these polls are favorable to Harris. If Trump's numbers are better today than in 2020, and Harris is doing worse with labor, blacks, and Hispanics, how do these polls make sense?"

The MSM polls must be fraudulently (as required) fabricated as close as needed to pull off the steal.

[dpetty121263]

Fact is ALL Polls only say what the ones writing the checks for them want them to say.

[Persevero]

IBTZ means In Before The Zot. Basically the poster is saying you are or should be getting kicked off the site.

[pepsionice]

Just based on report out of Penn....there’s to be a lot of new registered voters (GOP attached) that have never voted before in their life. The polls aren’t really counting them.

[TECTopcat]

The most accurate pollster for 2020 was

Atlas Intel

They nailed national and state see

https://x.com/atlas_intel

they have Trump up 1 or 2 nationally

read here why there are the ones to watch

https://x.com/JosephFordCotto/status/1835955452842000617

[rarestia]

White women between 18-45 I’ll believe, but Trump has overwhelming approval among white males. Factor in Boomers with their white guilt, and you skim some white males off that list, but not much.

[BroJoeK]

from the article: "So why do I feel good about Trump's prospects, as does my former colleague Professor X?
It's hard to find Harris voters on the ground, and plenty of evidence supports that.
Don Lemon HUMILIATED as Voters ALL BACK TRUMP!!!"

This article expresses my views pretty well...

[TalBlack]

A 1980 type blowout is unlikely but a latter day version of a 1980 blowout is what will happen. That is if Trump isn’t assassinated before then.