Posted on 09/11/2024 9:30:18 AM PDT by Ravi
9/11/24: 153,831 (D 39.0%, R 22.3%) 9/14/22: 69,343 (D 52.6%, R 13.6%)
Apples to apples as far as days to election. Midterm to Presidential election year so there is that caveat.
ping
Ah, it’s this time of year again.
Has anyone gone back to 2020 or even 2022 and evaluated whether this sort of data had ANY predictive relevance whatsoever? I seem to recall a lot of false flags (”GOP doing much better than before in EV — red wave a-comin’! Oops. Sorry.”)
What may be interesting, though not necessarily relevant, would be to see more Republicans using early voting. So as not to leave things (like voting machine malfunctions in Maricopa County and other Democrat shenanigans) entirely to chance on election day.
If you compare it to 2020 ie the last presidential election year, the numbers are way way down.
As expected. That year was an anomaly.
Just difficult to compare to 2020 in NC b/c pandemic shifted so heavily to VBM.
I’m in Maricopa county and I’m early voting
Each state is so unique. Some states have used VBM for so long and voters only know how to vote this way. Others are more recent entrants. Feel comfortable with this NC data b/c people were VBM crazy in 2020 and settled back to stability in 22. That’s why I feel the comparison to 22 is warranted. Turnout should be 75% of RV (5.7 million?) so obviously only 150,000 ballot requests thus far. Long way to go.
Notice how the 2 percentages don’t add up to 100?
I’ll bet many of those are illegals who haven’t registered under a party affiliation.
The true measure would be...How many first time voters are requesting mail in ballots? I assume they don’t want to track that information.
The mail in steal will work again. IDIOTS! NOTHING was done to stop it. Even with Trump gains,the stop and steal is nearly a flawless technique especially with the DOJ and Harris resources. This is how the little girl in Arizona was magically selected governor.
Thanks for the info, and it’s good to know the numbers insofar as they apply to turnout.
However we all know that people leap from these figures to (foolishly) assuming that they can predict the voting *outcomes*. Which is why I wonder if anyone has honestly studied the figures (ballot requests vs. actual outcomes) from 2020 or 2022 or even earlier for states which were doing significant early voting pre-plandemic.
As far as predicting things: people start off by presuming that ‘x’ % of Republican ballot requestors will definitely vote for their party, and that ‘y’ % of Democrat ballot requestors will vote for their party (where ‘x’ is normally equal to or greater than ‘y’ because we fervently wish to believe that Republicans won’t cross party lines as often as Democrats).
And then they go really far out into left field and pretend that they know how “independent” voters are definitely going to break — always making the best case assumption, again because feelings.
In the end the basic canard goes something like: “SOOOO many Democrats (and so few Republicans) voted early and this is FANTASTIC! Because there aren’t many Democrats left to vote on election day but there are tons of Republicans — and now we know EXACTLY HOW MANY — and we are going to swamp them on e-Day and WIN THIS THING!”
Unless it rains. Or snows. Or they run out of paper or pencils at GOP precincts. Or the machines “go down”. Or we have to restrict movement because of whatever the next upcoming plandemic brings. Or....
a better model would be 2024 to 2020. any chance of getting those numbers?
“The mail in steal will work again.”
That’s why it’s almost certainly a moot point to even bother pretending that we can predict outcomes from ballot requests. But I’d like to hear from those who think they can do it.
As to mail-ins, maybe we are catching up in that department for whatever it’s worth. However 4 years ago it was fashionable for GOP leaders to shriek hysterically and demand that we NOT vote early (for some reason). But by leaving the mail-ins so massively unbalanced in favor of Democrats, they get to control the narrative which goes like:
“It’s NOT vote fraud you paranoid Republican wingnuts, it’s just that there are SOOOO many more Democrat votes than Republican votes among the mail-ins that OF COURSE Democrats were able to overwhelm whatever small advantage the GOP had as of election night. There’s nothing sinister about that at all, it’s just basic math.”
I haven’t received my NC ballot yet. Never voted by mail... not sure I want to. What do y’all think?
Are NC elections secure, or have all those Republicans who requested ballots unwittingly handed their vote over to the Dems?
NC Democrats just sent voter registration by mail forms to all households where there is a registered Democrat in the household.
Just found out my neighbors are Harris supporters.. At least I know where to send the armed burglars when they show up!
NC has been unreliable since Senator Helms retired and later died. Mark Robinson is being Daniel Cameroned.
Ballot requests are not a big deal. What is more important is the number of returned ballots, of which, is zero at the moment.
I’ll add it tomorrow. Pandemic really screws up 2020 comparison in NC.
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