Germany Elections: Populist-Right AfD Win State for First Time, But Rainbow Coalition Likely to Block Road to Power

Right-wingers and populists have devastated legacy left-wing parties in two state elections in Germany, even if a “software error” in one state was blamed for changing the initial official results, taking two seats away from the right.

The right-populist anti-mass migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won a state election for the first time, taking 32.8 per cent of the vote in east Germany’s Thuringia. Counts in the AfD’s favour continued to roll in from the evening, building its lead from earlier declarations. The result gives the party 32 seats in the Free State’s 88-seat parliament, the Landtag, far short of an actual majority.

even if a “software error” in one state was blamed for changing the initial official results, taking two seats away from the right. The right-populist anti-mass migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won a state election for the

Apparently, clean "elections" are over with in the West.

These are the same piles of dung that ridicule The Putin and pump up Little Zel and his election-free autocratic dictatorship in The Ukraine.

At polling stations...ballots are hand-counted. Then the reports are called into each state’s ‘count-office’. At this point, there’s some system to add up the various districts and give a actual count and seat distribution. It would appear, that was where the error came up.

As for the coalition game...none of the parties will partner-up with AfD. But trying to build a coalition (for example, in Saxony)...the CDU won, with the AfD in very close race (30.6). So the CDU would get the nod to build the coalition.

In Thuringia, the coalition building is more difficult.

Clean elections are over because everyone is too scared to fight back.

I always hear people around here say “Fighting back is just what they want you to do”.

Not really, they would much rather you give up than actually have to fight you.

It is a good excuse though to do nothing and complain.

Ballot box and the courts aren’t going to fix the freedom problem because the bad guys run those operations.

I have two things to say. (1) poll bias; and, (2) possible coalitions.

In both Saxony and Thuringia, the populist-right AfD (the Alternative Party) outperformed both the pre-election polls and the exit poll.

We saw this in our Presidential elections of 2016 and 2020. Trump was behind in the polling average in 2016 by 3 points, but lost the popular vote by only 2 points (and won in the Electoral College). One day, this will be recognized as one of the greatest elections of all time; but, unfortunately, because of Trump Derangement Syndrome, that day may be well in the future.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton

In 2020, Trump was behind in the polling average by 7.2 points, but lost the popular vote by only 4.5 points (and came up just short in the Electoral College, losing each of AZ, GA and WI by 1 point or less).

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020

Taking into account BOTH the tilt in the Electoral College and the bias in the polls, we have a good chance of winning even if the polling average puts us 5 points behind.

My second point is that in Saxony, the center-right CDU (Christian Democratic Union) can fashion a majority coalition with the Social Democrats and the Greens. I think this is what most people think when say “rainbow coalition.” But, in Germany, this is known as the Kenya coalition because the colors of the parties (black, red and green) are the colors of the flag of Kenya.

But, in Thuringia, the CDU would have to bring both the warmed-over communist Left Party and left-populist BSW Party into government to keep AfD out; and, what’s up with that? Left-wing extremism is better than right-wing extremism (from the perspective of the CDU)?

Up in the Netherlands, the right of center parties worked out a deal with Geert Wilders’ Party of Freedom, also considered anathema by the holier-than-thou conservatives. So, let’s see what happens in Thuringia.

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