Posted on 08/23/2024 9:31:46 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
The path to the House majority runs mostly through blue states with Republican-held seats Democrats hope to flip back to their corner and a handful of races in swing states that could tack closely with the presidential contest this November.
Republicans control the House with a razor-thin majority and are defending territory they won last cycle, while also looking at additional pick-up opportunities. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take back the House and are targeting seats they lost in 2022, while also trying to protect their incumbents.
Two-and-a-half months from Election Day, the battlefield is pretty evenly split.
“Control for the House still looks pretty purely like a toss-up,” Erin Covey, who analyzes House races for the Cook Political Report, told The Washington Times. “A month ago, when [President] Biden was still at the top of the ticket, that was very much in question.”
Democrats worried Mr. Biden, plagued by low approval ratings, would diminish the party’s turnout in November and serve as a drag on down-ballot races.
Vice President Kamala Harris has drummed up enthusiasm since replacing him as the party’s nominee, which House Democrats hope will trickle down to their races.
Here are some of the key dynamics to watch in the House races this fall:
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
This article reads like they don’t think elections are fixed.
Or like they think Trump's victory will exceed the Democrat margin-of-cheating.
Democrats picked up 4 seats in North Carolina after the then Democrat controlled state Supreme Court redrew the map “cuz racism”....nevermind there was zero evidence for that claim.
Since then Republicans flipped the State Supreme Court which overturned the previous decision and reinstated the previous map. The result should be that the Republicans pick up 3-4 seats in the House this cycle.
Republicans, absent a massive upset, are guaranteed to pick up 3 seats in North Carolina. They are guaranteed to lose 1 in Louisiana and 1 in Alabama. California and New York have the potential to be bloodbaths (in a bad way).
Democrats are spending ungodly amounts of money to protect vulnerable incumbents like Marie. G. Perez in Washington. Republicans have shit the bed — again — in Alaska, and Peltola has a very solid chance of being reelected.
Jared Golden in Maine should be quite vulnerable. But if a (biased) University of New Hampshire poll turns out to be remotely accurate — it has Trump losing big in ME-2, which he should be winning by several points — then Golden is rock solid safe.
The GOPe seems to be disinterested in assisting vulnerable conservatives such as David Schweikert (AZ-1) and Scott Perry (PA-10). There’s a good chance that both lose.
Republicans have 2 good pickup chances in open seats Michigan (MI-7, MI-8). Incumbent (R) John James, who has turned out to be quite a disappointing squish, is facing a rematch against big-$$$ Democrat Carl Marlinga in MI-10 and that’s a tossup for James, at best.
Continuing to go back and forth....
RINO Don Bacon could easily go down in flames in NE-2 to slimy cockroach Tony Vargas. Republicans have a small chance of making 2 pickups in PA (but could also lose 2 seats). They could go +1 — or minus 1 — in Virginia. Ditto for Colorado, but probably won’t gain or lose anything there.
Add it all up and.... anyone who thinks they “know” what the total will be at this point is pulling the number out of their ass.
Yep, NY could lose 2-3
“The result should be that the Republicans pick up 3-4 seats in the House this cycle.”
Three for sure (NC-6, NC-13, NC-14), 4 is possible (NC-1).
Unless the fact that slimy Joshie Stein is beating the living shit out of Mark Robinson in the Governor race somehow drags down the entire GOP ticket — Trump included.
NC is already a tossup presidentially, though deniers of facts like to pretend it’s true blue Republican at the top. Now it’s shakier than ever (recently). But we should still get +3 in the House unless a massive “blue” wave hits, and it should never be THAT massive.
“Yep, NY could lose 2-3”
Malliotakis is likely safe on Staten Island, and LaLota & Garbarino should be, out at the end of Long Island.
But Williams is 80% dead, Lawler is probably in trouble, and Molinaro and D’Eposito may be too (D’Esposito is a piece of shit but we need every seat we can get).
There’s an outside chance of a GOP pickup in NY-18 (Ryan). Don’t hold your breath.
Here’s a money quote: “There’s not a candidate in the country who can overcome a truly abysmal presidential performance anymore,” he said.
An abysmal Harris performance is what I expect.
There are no more undecided voters. The race for both president and house will be won by turnout.
The move from Biden to Harris has hurt the GOP there. The Dems are more motivated, but Harris is about to endure tough scrutiny that will push that back down.
Media polls are bad, but the polls of North Carolina are exceptionally bad with underestimating Republican support.
My biggest question on turnout is the refusal to do early voting or mail voting. It leaves too much to chance on one single day (weather, voting machine “malfunctions”) while the Dims systematically bank early votes. Supposedly the RNC has a plan in place for early voting this time.
“Democrats are spending ungodly amounts of money to protect vulnerable incumbents like Marie. G. Perez in Washington.”
1. I’m hoping Joe Kent can win despite the money differential.
2. I’ll be celebrating (Trump impeacher) Dan Newhouse’s loss to (Trump endorsed) Jerrod Sessler in Washington’s 4th district.
Biden won because he won Moderates. Harris repeled them.
I’m rooting hard for both of those outcomes too.
Perez has nearly 6x the money that Kent has, but above a certain point — what is there to spend it on? Just how much more saturated with Democrat ads can the airwaves be?
Kent and Sessler are both going to need *serious* unity to prevail. Kent is going to need all of Lewallen’s votes; she, and presumably her voters, spent the entire primary campaign hating on Joe Kent. Has she endorsed Kent yet? My guess is No.
Newhouse has about 3x the cash Sessler has, but that race is playing out at a much lower financial level — obviously because there are no Democrats in the running.
Like Kent-Lewallen, Sessler is going to need the VAST majority of Tiffany Smiley’s voters in November. Otherwise the Impeachment RINO survives yet again. Smiley, like Lewallen, was a GOPe plant designed to take votes from the conservative.
Both ladies failed, though they can still do damage even after being eliminated, in addition to the damage they’ve already done. Both are likely to remain spiteful b*tches (prove me wrong, Tiffany).
Newhouse had been accustomed to finishing first in the primary, but he didn’t come close this time; he’s won before under those conditions though (remember Clint Didier?). When you add the 23% Democrat votes to Newhouse’s 23%, Sessler is going to have to almost run the table to get to Victory Lane this time.
The odds are definitely against both Kent and Sessler. But not by such a large margin that they can’t possibly overcome it.
“the polls of North Carolina are exceptionally bad with underestimating Republican support.”
How so?
The internals of the latest one which shows Robinson being steamrolled look quite reasonable:
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6368b805-bffe-45d6-bfff-c3e2cbd2d222
36D 35R 27I
Other demographics also look reasonable. There’s not a thing along the lines of “polling bias” which could explain why Robinson is down FOURTEEN points. Maybe, wishfully, he’s not really down that much. But he is down. Outside the MOE. And not just in this one poll.
I’m not in NC but Robinson has always seemed like a good candidate to me; a good solid conservative and a fighter instead of a milquetoast.
I have no doubt that the Democrats, and Josh Stein’s tribe of media controllers are bludgeoning Robinson on an hourly basis and are driving his negatives through the roof, to an extent Robinson has never seen before in any campaign. While Stein is portrayed as Jesus Christ reincarnate.
At least in part however, maybe this is just another case of GOP failure in running a black candidate statewide in a state that isn’t lockstep GOP (e.g. Tim Scott in SC, which is lockstep GOP — for a least a little longer).
Lynn Swann in PA, John James twice in MI, Daniel Cameron in KY, Hershel Walker in GA.... some may have been bad candidates but some of those races were definitely winnable. Is Robinson (like, to some extent, Cameron) the victim of hidden racism among NC voters?
If not, then what is going on in NC and why is Robinson imploding?
He didn’t. The change from 2016 to 2020 can be entirely explained by changes in turnout. Big cities voted more and rural areas less.
(Whether those number reflect reality or fabrications being a different question)
The delusions being sold about this election are just beyond comical...
There is no path for a democrat majority in either house.
Biden won more White working Class voters in the Midwest than Harris did.
Clinton. Although, that will be true also.
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