I wouldn’t be surprised if they burned up a large portion of their ready-in-the-can fake polls leading up to the convention. If that’s the case, they won’t be able to fake as high a convention bounce as they normally do.
Let’s wait and see.
Of course, the “debate” is just around the corner and the rabid attack dog “moderators” might just keep President Trump tied up enough for Comrade Camalol to declare victory. Inturrupting him, contradicting him, etc. You know, the usual.
The media and the leftist pollsters live in their own bubble and don’t get out much. A lot of polling can be done in the little lunch and break area lawn behind the CNN building. Less work.
Version one:
A quote from New Yorker film critic Pauline Kael almost 40 years ago, has been discussed in right-wing circles ever since. It went something like this: “I can’t believe Nixon won. I don’t know anyone who voted for him.”
Alleged version two:
“Pauline Kael famously commented, after the 1972 Presidential election, ‘I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.’”
Wow ,are democrats stupid.
That’s because there’s a lot of Democrats that vote more than once.
Continuing to do polls sitting naked in front of their computer screens at home
There is a thing called “response bias” pollsters know about.
When one side does well or has something good/galvanizing happen, their supporters are eager to pick up the phone, respond to texts, etc. When its the reverse they tend to not pick up the phone. Note that their vote has never changed - just their willingness to talk to pollsters.
In reality national polls do not swing 10 points rapidly. That simply never happens. There are ways to control for response bias....for example you could have a large sample of people and sample the same group over time. Another way is to carefully weight for demographics/education/income and weight people by their demographic and income information accordingly.
That is not what they’ve been doing lately. They’ve been grossly over representing Democrats as a percentage of those they polled. So yeah Heels Up leads.....if the electorate were 6-7% more Democrat than it actually is. In the real world, no freaking way is the electorate going to look like that. These are intentionally dishonest push polls meant to try to give Heels Up Harris a boost. Everybody knows it.
Now she's everybody's darling. Something is fishy.
That's exactly what my model is showing right now.
-PJ
It’s the only thing that makes sense.
“Kamala Harris has enjoyed a noticeable surge in the polls...since becoming the Democratic standard bearer,”
Like hell she is. She’s the anti-democratic double standard bearer. She just happens to be a member of the Democrat Party.
In layman’s terms the polling is lefty media horse shit.
They're also over-polling women (which is boosting Harris) and under-polling minorities (which is lowering the importance of immigration and border concerns).
-PJ
For the most part, the RCP state poll final averages were close in 2016 and 2020, but generally, Trump overperformed most battleground states by 2-3 points from polling. The one notable exception is Wisconsin, where Trump overperformed by 6 and 7 points respectively. Harris is only ahead by one there and Trump is still ahead in the RCP PA averages. I honestly think Trump wins PA and WI based on past trends and polling averages.
Michigan was a bit closer but still, Trump overperformed polling by almost 4 in 2016 and 1.5 on 2020 (that was probably the Detroit fraud). Lastly, check out the trend graphs on all the state polling. She has peaked and is on the downswing, even with the generous polling samples and nonstop coverage.
From the Bee
Study Finds Polls Are Only Accurate When Your Candidate Is Ahead
ASBURY PARK, NJ — Election year hysteria on both sides of the political aisle was calmed this week, as a new study found that polls are only accurate when your preferred candidate is ahead.
The groundbreaking study determined that you can feel free to disregard polls as “rigged” or “fake news” whenever the candidate you dislike is shown to be leading while hailing the enormous popularity of your preferred candidate whenever the same polls showed them leading.
“The validity of polls is entirely dependent upon who is leading,” said Professor Blake Rumsey of the Center for Knowing Information. “Many people make the mistake of believing polls can always be trusted, when, in fact, they are only to be believed when your candidate is in the lead. If the opposing candidate is ahead in the polls, you may immediately disregard them and label them as propaganda online.”
The general public was thrilled to learn the study’s results. “I knew it!” shouted citizen Adma Kinunen. “I always figured those polls showing the person I don’t like as in the lead were totally rigged. Fortunately, a couple of weeks later, the polls showed my candidate took the lead, which meant the polls were completely correct and trustworthy. I just wish they would be legitimate and correct all the time by showing my candidate in front.”
At publishing time, the study was able to further confirm that a candidate being shown in a black and white photo in a campaign commercial was inarguable proof that the candidate was evil.
The only polls I’d trust at this point are Trump’s internals.
Does he look worried?
No.
So votes aren’t the problem.
He won last time, too.
The problem is that Deep State counts the votes.
If folks don’t want to make it easy for Deep State to steal, there are two things the able-bodied can and should do...
Do NOT vote early.
Do NOT vote by mail.
Get your keisters to the polls on Election Day.
The “convention bounce,” whether R or D, often involves temporary enthusiasm. For example, John McCain temporarily caught up to Barack Obama in 2008. Let’s see where the polls level out in a week or two.
In the nationwide vote (not polls) we can lose by 2 points and win in the Electoral College. In the nationwide polls, because of polling bias, we can expect Trump to outperform by up to 3 points. So, we can be down in the nationwide polls by as many as 5 points and feel pretty confident that we’re going to win.
With regard to state polls, the bias isn’t uniform. But, think 3 points on average. Considering poll bias, I’m thinking we have a good chance winning all the so-called battleground states along with several of: ME at large, MN, NE #2, NH, NM and VA.
I was just looking at New Hampshire the other day. It’s a registration state, and is polled frequently enough. The state polls almost uniformly give the edge to the Democrats by a point. But, actual registration has swung Republican since four years ago. We’ve gone from a 1 point advantage in registration, to a 5 point advantage. So, I’m pretty confident we’ll do better than the polls show in this state.
These pollsters, who are clearly Democrats with no interest in reflecting reality, obviously live in their own fantasy world, eh?
Trump was doing reasonably well in all of the polls against Biden, and now suddenly things are a lot tighter or have even flipped in some places.
It’s as if.... something important pertaining to the election has suddenly changed.
Like the identity of the Democrat nominee.
Let’s turn this around 180 degrees and gauge the reaction:
Let’s say Nikki Haley won the primaries easily because she was unopposed except by some pissant candidates like whoever the Republican equivalent of Dean Phillips is (some alleged “moderate” who nobody’s ever heard of).
Then the conservatives in the GOP stage a “coup” and force Haley out of the race in favor of Trump, who wasn’t even on the ballot in the primaries.
Now let’s say the pollsters DO NOT change their forecasting models, and show Trump doing no better than Haley was or perhaps even worse than her.
What would we be shrieking about THEN?
“Pollsters are still ‘oversampling’ wimmen! But Trump is the nominee now and that’s going to bring out more men as a percentage of voters! They need to account for that!”
“Also these damn pollsters are acting as if nothing has changed and aren’t factoring in our new enthusiasm!”
“We voted only grudgingly for Haley in the primaries because she was the only real choice, though she wasn’t inspiring at all. But now that Trump is our guy we have new-found ‘joy’ and enthusiasm — you can feel it!!! The pollsters still aren’t budging and are refusing to acknowledge the increased turnout on the GOP side! We’re stoked! We’d crawl over broken glass now, blah blah blah....”
“Everything is different now, but these stupid inaccurate pollsters truly live in a bubble!”
But not us.
They gotta make it look close so the BIG CHEAT won’t look so “in your face.” :(