Posted on 08/11/2024 1:43:36 PM PDT by Sidebar Moderator
Factbox: Where the bookies and trading exchanges put Trump, Clinton odds
A Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released on Friday put Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton just 5 percentage points above Republican rival Donald Trump ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election. But major bookmakers and online exchanges are much more confident about a Clinton victory.
Here is where they put the probability as of Sunday of each candidate winning the election:
PredictIt, an online trading platform jointly run by Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, and Washington, D.C.-based political consulting firm Aristotle International Inc:
Clinton - 81 percent Trump - 20 percent
Iowa Electronic Markets, winner-takes-all trading market:
Clinton - 71 percent Trump - 28 percent
UK-based Betfair, internet betting exchange:
Clinton - 83 percent Trump - 18 percent
UK-based Ladbrokes, online betting platform:
Clinton - 83 percent Trump - 22 percent
Ireland’s Paddy Power, bookmaker:
Clinton - 83 percent Trump - 18 percent
Probabilities were as of roughly 6:30 p.m. EST (2330 GMT) on Sunday.
The suggestion of this article is that we are Iin a 2016 Presidential race. This is flat wrong. The 2024 will be more like 2020 becAuse of the fraud
The suggestion of the article is that nobody knows what is going on....
The article is correct.
Good find! Thanks for posting.
Welcome!
Exactly. The gaslighting is off the charts.
lol
:)
I was afraid you might zot me for posting that face. lol
Too many people erroneously think the betting markets are a reliable way to know the state of the race. It is nothing of the kind and never has been. Time and again, they’ve proven wrong. Brexit was another example. People lost tons of money betting Brexit would be defeated.
The gamblers who are placing bets have no special “insider knowledge”. That’s a myth.
I considered it — kidding! 🤔🤔🤔😂😂😂
I wouldn’t blame you.
If I were a mod I might post a pic of Hillary ... and then zot myself for doing it.
Better yet, why isn’t the Clinton crime cartel in jail?!
Because it’s part of a much bigger cartel and we ain’t in it.
We do have the privilege of helping fund it though.
Pollsters always over poll Democrats. Below is a video showing the Real Clear Politics average polling in swing states in the 2020 election. For an example, all the way through the summer, Biden led Trump in Ohio except for on election when Trump led by one point. Trump won Ohio by 8.
In Wisconsin, Biden led Trump in RCP polling the entire campaign, and on election day was favored to win by 6.7 points. Biden won Wisconsin by less than a point.
The discussion regarding the 2020 polling starts at the 2:40 mark in the video at the link. (The first couple of minutes is on current polling and you might find that interesting as well.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5IxAbVg-T8&t=161s
As I said, Pollsters always over-poll Democrats. Of course, we don’t need to ignore the polling, but we have to remember the Democrats plan is to demoralize conservatives and discourage new voters from going to the polls.
Also, part of the reason for polls constantly showing Democrats in the lead is so no one will be surprise when they cheat enough to win. For instance, they have shown GOP senators losing in states even when Trump is in the lead by several points. Do you really believe large numbers of GOP voters will vote for Trump and then vote for the Democrat Senator? I don’t.
Conservatives have to vote in large numbers to beat the margin of fraud. The GOP has to have poll watchers and attorneys in place in all the democrat strongholds to thwart the cheating. And conservatives need to volunteer to be poll-watchers, so as many eyes as possible are watching on election night.
But, but, but Clay Bevis says betting markets are always right and now they have it 59/50 and “he’s worried”.
What a putz and fool. Well, he did vote Obama and a libertarian. Frankly makes him an idiot.
Thanks for the insightful feedback and the link, FRiend!
Lol, exactly
😂😂😂😂
“Thanks for the insightful feedback and the link, FRiend!”
I’m always happy to provide info I stumble across to my FRiends here at FR. I had just stumbled across that video this morning and I bookmarked it so I can look for future videos by the guy. It will interesting to see what his predictions are as we get closer to November and of course how close he is to the actual results.
None of us are going to get any sleep the night of November 5th. I’ve already made sure I’m stocked up on coffee!
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