Posted on 08/10/2024 8:16:12 AM PDT by delta7
In March 2022 I predicted some consequences of the sanctions imposed on Russia:
The first [map] shows the countries which banned Russian airplanes from their airspace. Russia in turn denied its airspace to operators from those countries. It will cost quite a bit for U.S. and EU airlines as their flight times and cost to and from Asia, which typically fly through Russian airspace, will now increase. Carriers from Asian countries will now easily out-compete U.S. and European airlines on these routes.
bigger As British media reported yesterday:
British Airways is temporarily scrapping flights to Beijing until at least next year. From October to at least November 2025 the carrier will not fly to the capital of China, although flights to Shanghai and Hong Kong will continue.
European carriers are not currently able to enter Russian airspace which makes flying to China more challenging as it takes a few hours longer than it used to.
Russia's civil aviation authority introduced the restrictions in February 2022, in retaliation to a British ban on the country's Aeroflot airline as part of sanctions for the war in Ukraine.
A spokesperson for British Airways said: “We will be pausing our route to Beijing from 26 October 2024, and we’re contacting any affected customers with rebooking options or to offer them a full refund. We continue to operate daily flights to Shanghai and Hong Kong."
The route only resumed operations on the route in June 2023, following a three-year pause due to the coronavirus pandemic.
At the time, British Airways described London-Beijing as “one of our most important routes”. The airline did not provide a reason for the suspension.
It is one of many Western airlines avoiding Russian airspace, which is adding to their flight times, fuel costs and complexity over how they deploy crew and aircraft.
British Airways isn't the only one.
A simple look on the map explains the issue:
bigger As I continued on sanctions:
The second map shows those countries which enacted sanctions against Russia. The secondary effects of sanctions are likely to hurt these countries as much as they hurt Russia. The absence of African, Asian, Middle Eastern, Central and South American countries is quite telling.
It does not look like 'the world' or the 'international community' is backing the 'west'.
bigger The U.S. also sanctioned all imports of oil products from Russia. President Biden has blamed Russia for the price increase that will inevitably follow. I don't believe that mid-term voters will accept that reasoning. European countries can not follow that step as their economies depend of imports of oil and gas from Russia and will continue to do so for years to come.
Which fits to this other recent headline:
French imports of Russia's liquified natural gas surge, and Ukraine supporters seek a stop
Shipments of Russian liquified natural gas to France more than doubled the first half of this year, according to new analyses of trade data, at a time when Europe has tried to pull back from energy purchases that help finance the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. Europe has restricted oil imports from Russia, but natural gas is still allowed. And while companies in France are importing the most, one analysis found EU countries overall imported 7% more Russian LNG, natural gas that has been chilled and liquified for easier ocean transport, in the first half of this year compared to the same period a year ago.
Meanwhile in Germany, which currently has a rather crazy government, industrial production is further declining while bankruptcies have reached a record height:
Germany, with its energy-intensive industry and shortage of raw materials, has been particularly affected by the rapid rise in energy prices. Large corporations such as BASF are closing factories because management no longer believes it can efficiently produce essential chemicals. There is a trend of deindustrialization. The volume of orders from German machine-building and engineering companies decreased by 12 percent in the first half of 2024, according to the industry association VDMA. year to year in real terms. Orders from Germany itself fell especially sharply - by 18 percent. Orders from foreign companies fell by 9 percent. Metallurgical corporations are also suffering, as demand for their products is also falling.
All this could be fixed with some sanity and the discarding of useless sanctions.
All eyes on the Brics Summit in September!
Interesting that the Globalists seem to force nationalism.
MOON OF ALABAMA !!!!
Who is Moon of Alabama?
According to The Standard, British Airways did not give a reason discontinuing the London-Beijing route British Airways cut the route under Covid, then restarted it June 2023 after three years. The Standard reported travel site Head for Points saying Chinese tourism isn't back up after Covid and demand for air travel to the US is high.
Russia has a history of shooting down airliners. Flying commercial aircraft over war zones with lots of surface to air missiles is dangerous. Dropping the London-Beijing route is about Covid, profitability, and airline safety, not sanctions.
As for Russian LNG sales, the EU has a goal of phasing out Russian energy by 2027. France and other countries had prior long term contracts for Russian LNG. Economically, they have to take Russian LNG for a few years, while finding alternatives. This is going to take time. At the same time, it is driving up the costs of Russian energy production and reducing their revenues. Quarterly fluctuations will have no effect on Russia's long term energy outlook.
Back to the effects of the Russian sanctions on Russia. The Russian manufacturing colossus is bringing 50 year old weapons back into service, buying weapons from Iran and North Korea. Their civilian industry to maintain the war industry is getting worn out by lack of parts, leading to delayed maintenance. From Trent Telenko (again go read the tweets), trains can't run when their wheel bearings wear out.
Western nations are not having such problems with their industry, regular maintenance, and quite literally, keeping the trains running.
A pro-Russian, anti-semitic website/discussion forum focusing (last I checked) on the topics of the Ukraine war and the fight in Gaza (they have dedicated forums for each). The posters there lean leftist and conspiratorial. If you wade through the muck it can be a good source for information not shared by the MSM on the Ukraine war, though discretion and judgment is needed as always.
Re the Brics & foreign finance >> Seizing/freezing Russian financial assets, excluding from Swift and so forth brings distrust of Western nations, primarily distrust of the US and the $dollar.
The Brics have many partners and a lot of moving parts and differing objectives; it seems the US is doing all it can to get them working together.
US arrogance, the ulgy American and all that...
Thank you.
Get back with us after the Brics Summit announcements. There is no use in explaining what happens when 65 percent ( plus) of the world is now rejecting US hegemony.
Their M Bridge Unit is dethroning USD hegemony, the world has had enough of it and the US’s forever wars….as they should be.
BRICS To Leave UN: What’s going on?
“ Countries within the BRICS group and other Global South nations have voiced growing dissatisfaction with the United Nations, citing several key issues. Chief among these is the undue influence that Western nations wield in major international organizations and decision-making bodies. These nations contend that the current UN structure does not adequately reflect their interests or perspectives, leading to calls for a more democratic and inclusive approach.
During a recent BRICS summit, leaders highlighted the need for comprehensive reforms within the UN, emphasizing the importance of enhancing the participation of emerging nations. Central to their demands is a reevaluation of the Security Council’s composition and the reconsideration of the veto power held by its permanent members.
This dissatisfaction has sparked numerous calls for significant reforms, or even a complete overhaul of the UN, with the goal of establishing a more equitable and representative system of global governance. In this video, we will explore these proposed changes and the motivations behind them.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwlq1qC93BM
The trend my friend is your friend.
The US and collective West out, Russia, China and India in. Plan accordingly.
Come back when Brics actually accomplishes more than conferences and press releases. All Brics nations trade with the West. Russia’s invasion is forcing other Brics nations to choose what degree they will trade and cooperate between Russia and the West. India, China, Brazil, and the rest of Brics will all choose self-preservation before letting Russia’s invasion harm their economies.
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