Did the Israelis Take Out Hamas' #2 in Gaza? UPDATE: Netanyahu Presser Announced

The Israelis wanted to bring the co-author of the October 7 massacres to justice. They'd be just as happy if they brought justice to him instead. An IDF strike on a compound in southern Gaza targeted Mohammad Deif, the top commander of Hamas' 'military,' as well as one of his top deputies.

Hamas claimed afterward that the strike targeted a nearby refugee camp, accusing the Israelis of an act of "genocide." Casualties -- according to Hamas -- are over 70 dead and nearly 300 injured, all of them supposedly civilians. The Israelis acknowledge some civilian deaths in the strike, but claims that most of those killed were Hamas terrorists working under Deif and Salama.

Furthermore, the IDF claimed that the strike targeted a building outside the camp, one used by Hamas for command-and-control functions within a "civilian environment":

Al-Mawasi is designated by Israel as a humanitarian zone. But the IDF said the building struck was not in a tent camp for displaced Palestinians, but rather in a fenced-off Hamas compound within a civilian environment. Several dozen more Hamas operatives were also in the area of the site when it was targeted, including Deif and Salameh’s guards, military sources said. ...
The al-Mawasi and western Khan Younis areas are part of an Israeli-designated humanitarian zone — where the vast majority of the Gazan population is residing — but the IDF said the strike was accurate and only targeted the fenced-off Hamas site.

One video shot by a Gazan in the camp does seem to show the strike occurring outside its perimeter:

תיעוד פלסטיני מניסיון החיסול: כך נראו הרגעים הראשונים אחרי התקיפה מאזור אוהלי העקורים במוואסי; ניתן להבחין שחיל האוויר השתמש בחימושים כבדים@Doron_Kadosh pic.twitter.com/2oyy2lH4jb— גלצ (@GLZRadio) July 13, 2024

Translation from Hebrew: "Palestinian documentation from the assassination attempt: this is what the first moments after the attack looked like from the area of the displaced persons' tents in Mawasi; It can be seen that the Air Force used heavy weapons."

And it's not just the IDF that rejects the idea that the Israelis didn't have a cause to strike. A Fatah spokesperson scoffed at Hamas complaints a few minutes ago:

"Hamas must not hide among civilians. Why was Deif in the Al-Mawasi camp?" a Fatah spokesperson asked rhetorically following the IDF strike Saturday on the refugee camp where Mohammad Deif was allegedly hiding, Maariv reported.

But was he, and if so, did the strike kill him and Salama? They've tried to get Deif several times in the past; he's survived seven known assassination plots, according to the Times of Israel. Two of those took place during the brief 2021 conflict started by Hamas. Another attempt in the more intense 2014 conflict killed his family but left him alive.

A success in this case would likely deliver a body blow to whatever organized capabilities Hamas has left in Gaza. Losing both Deif and Salama at the same time means that the surviving Hamas cells in southern Gaza have no effective leadership in place and likely no way to effectively coordinate with other units. Hamas' terrorist logistics likely relies heavily on top-level communications and frequent changes of locations with complicated logistics so as to protect the rank and file from exposure. That has served well so far in the war, but if the Israelis are getting real-time intel on leader locations of this seniority, then that's already breaking down for Hamas. The sudden elimination of top 'military' leadership will unplug most of that organizing capability and the IDF will likely be able to flush out many of the remaining groups of terrorists operating blindly.

That's a big if. The Israelis thought they got Deif in the past too, which is why they're being cautious about claiming success. If Fatah's slagging them openly, though, perhaps they already have confirmation of Deif's room-temperature status.

What will Yahya Sinwar do now? It suddenly got a lot lonelier for the other co-author of the October 7 massacre, and now Gazans have even more incentive to provide the IDF with intel on his location. Hamas lost this war, and now the faster it gets eliminated, the better off Gazans are. And they know it.

Update: Benjamin Netanyahu hasn't made himself terribly accessible to the media, but he's scheduled a presser today. It's the first in 104 days for the embattled PM, according to the Jerusalem Post. Is that just a coincidence, or a sign that Netanyahu has good news to share?

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