“That will likely be the end of outdoor gatherings which by itself changes the calculus somewhat.”
I doubt that
I doubt that.
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It seems too much to say Trump owes a "duty' to his supporters, but in the context of today's politics including the likelihood we face a determined existential threat, he almost certainly has an obligation to the nation to not act recklessly.
Until Trump has a full presidential protection package as complete as current circumstances suggest, which is immediately indicated, his in-person public appearances should be limited...IMO.