Posted on 07/03/2024 10:54:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Well, that didn't take long.
Even yesterday, the smart money was betting that Joe Biden would be the presidential nominee.
No longer.
The New York Times has published a story that Joe Biden has, for the first time, conceded that he may not be the best candidate to take on Donald Trump. This story has been vociferously denied by the White House, raising questions about its credibility.
I have my doubts that Biden actually said that, at least so directly. There are so many machinations and Democrats are so committed to using hoaxes to get their way that it is equally likely that somebody who wants Biden out leaked this.
Washington always works that way, and Democrats are such liars that it comes naturally to them. It makes a great story, could be true, but it smells a bit off. I will believe it when I see it.
Still, you can't ignore--and you shouldn't take as gospel--the betting odds. People are putting their money where their mouth is, in this case literally, which tends to make the prediction markets a bit more reliable than polls.
Answering a pollster with wishcasting costs you nothing. Placing a bet hits you in the wallet.
Ed makes a great point:
The White House called this report "absolutely false," but apparently the same ally told CNN the same thing. As for it being false, let's not forget that White House called Biden videos "cheap fakes" too. It's tough to believe that Biden would refuse to even consider a withdrawal, especially with all of the criticism coming from fellow Democrats, including a handful who have called for Biden to step aside.
Of course, "go well" is a very flexible term. If Biden can manage to stay awake long enough for ABC to edit him into coherence, and if Jill Biden can escort him off the stages this week after reading off teleprompters, that might be enough to give the Bidens a claim of vindication for staying the course.
Would that be enough for the Democrat base? According to CNN's Harry Enten, Democrat voters seem committed to the bit. Two-thirds of them insist on keeping Biden in place on the ticket, in the most recent Reuters poll. That's not going to put much pressure on party leaders that fear a cognitive-decline reaper in November up and down the ballot, he explains:
A big issue with getting Biden out? Democrats don't want Biden to leave the race. The voters who could pressure their elected leaders want Biden to stay in.
The data right now don't look like Truman (52) or Johnson (68). They look a lot more like Bush (92), who stayed in & lost pic.twitter.com/HxmyO57fQP— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 3, 2024
Biden is the biggest story going right now, so it's natural that everybody has an opinion and wants to give it. This is in the Democrats' world a political earthquake, and everybody is talking about how many casualties there are and whether their loved one--in this case Biden--will pull through after being (mortally?) injured.
So people's ability to make informed predictions is hampered even more than normal, and most people's predictions are terrible even in normal times. When you are predicting political events, you are almost mind-reading.
Ask Democrats about how good their predictions were about the effects of Trump's legal problems. Not so good.
Still, not only are we all glued to our screens seeking data, but the collapse in confidence is a real news story. No doubt these predictions also change the odds. Democrats see the collapse in confidence and it reinforces their own doubts about the president's chances this November.
At least Biden is just a senile old man with Fascist tendencies. Harris is a condescending bitch with a far-left prosecutorial bent. We’re in for a very, very nasty ride if she becomes president. A lot of good people will go to federal prison for a very long time.
OTOH, she’s the one who was cheering on the left’s brownshirts during the COVID riots and raising bail money for them.
So the criminal justice system is about to be turned completely upside down and become solely a tool of socialist intimidation and reeducation.
The democrat party will have another potted plant to water if she get the job.
New puppet master sign places on WH door.
Karine Jean-Pierre just said Biden isn’t going anywhere... He’s working on his campaign. LMFAO!
This is too funny... The demise of a president because of Dementia.
The unanswered question... Who’s responsible for this mess and when will they be charged and put on trial for endangering Democracy and subverting the United States Constitution?
This debacle will damage the Democrat party for generations to come... Trump will win the presidency... The Republicans will win the house and the senate, and the American people will blame the Dumocrat party. They are toast... How toasted will they be? They need to replace him immediately to have any chance of saving their party.
they are both now 5/1.
Any plausible candidate is ahead of Joe at this point.
this is election night type of volatility.
It is really wild and these are not small sums of money moving the market.
I just saw a $100K trade go through on the exchange on Biden at exactly 5/1.
As of noon today, the Biden campaign has come out and said, “They are staying in the race.”
Joe should scrap Kamala and Barack asap and stay the course.
They seemed to have settled in at 5/1 each.
Something else of interest-
General Flynn has taken money and is now in to 10/1 to be VP.
That is by far and away his lowest price to date
and puts him third behind Burgum and Vance in the betting.
Kemala is so out of it and at much younger age than Potato Joe. She got too many C19 injections. At least witch Grechen Wittemore has an evil record to run on. She has done stuff as Michigan Governor.
My bet is on Moochelle running with Newsom as her VP. Mooch will run because she will be promised that she can kick back. Spend hours at the gym. Bering lots of her favorite Black entertainers to the White House for awards shows. And let her Barrack Obama vetted Cabinet and staff do all the work. Newsom being given many real work assignments too.
Oh we so deserve her after biden won without campaigning. We so deserve her, and boils, and locusts. The utter humbling of America is how the history books will record this period since covid began.
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