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Posted on 06/18/2024 11:46:49 PM PDT by mbrfl
This is an invitation to an open discussion on whether or not China will move on Taiwan prior to Jan. 20th, 2025.
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It might be a one-two, China scheme with North Korea, which as been silent recently, to create a distraction. Then China will address Taiwan. I think there is several windows, key is before November, else before January. Lastly after January, depends on who wins in November.
No.
They won’t invade. They don’t need to.
All they need to do is impose a blockade.
Houthi terrorists have been blockading the Suez Canal for six months with zero navy vessels, and the US navy seems incapable of doing anything about it.
China has 10,000 times the resources of the Houthis, and can easily blockade Taiwan without a single navy ship.
US carriers are always outside the 1200 mile range of the Chinese coast, because of DF-21 hypersonics. Which means that US carrier based planes cannot even reach Taiwan.
I fail to understand why China has such a “Hard on” for Taiwan. Perhaps someone can explain it
to all of us?
Three windows is logically a good way to break it down - 1) between now and election day, 2) between election day and inauguration day, and 3) after inauguration day. If they move before election day it will be very damaging to Biden, politically, so I don’t see that as the likely time frame unless it’s done as part of some larger scheme to suspend elections because of a “national emergency”. But that would be a hard thing to sell, so I don’t think it’s very likely.
Fair enough. But even a blockade would rightly be viewed as an act of war, so the ramifications of doing so would be similar to those of an all-out invasion. Even if they do invade, a blockade is likely to be the precursor.
It seems I heard that bad weather sets in around Taiwan about Sept/Oct so I’d guess before then... if it is to happen.
I’d guess that is about the same time frame for Ukraine to blow up in everyone’s face as well... unless someone does something really stupid and it happens sooner...
Pray...
Yes a blockade absolutely is a war act. But it is more difficult to defend against because there is no risk to Chinese forces trying to do some sort of D-Day.
A siege is just about the oldest military tactic there is, and just about the most effective.
In the end my guess is that Taiwan sees the USA can’t help them, and just does the deal.
Taiwan is a thorn in the side of the CCP. A prosperous nation of ethnic Chinese that doesn’t answer to them is a blow to their delusions of grandeur. Beyond that, it undermines them domestically and on the world stage. If their own people see a prosperous Taiwan whose standard of living and freedoms exceed their own, that exposes the CCP’s supremacist propaganda for what it is. And on the world stage, an independent Taiwan weakens their attempts to project an image of military dominance. If they’re unable to defeat a government who they themselves claim is illegitimate, what does that say about their military capabilities?
Is that what you’d do?
The USA had a Civil War that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people when a number of states left the Union to form a new country.
China views Taiwan as part of greater China, just like we view Hawaii and Alaska as part of the USA, we would not tolerate either one leaving the Union and would resent any foreign country militarily supporting them breaking away, rightly or wrongly, China feels the same way.
With all due respect, I think that’s a poor analogy. In the case of China and Taiwan, Taiwan is the continuation of the older nationalist government that was overthrown by Mao’s communist forces in 1949 and fled to Taiwan, rather than a breakaway region. If anything, it’s the CCP that broke away from the nationalist government that was in power, not the other way around. And it was not done by regions on the mainland deciding for themselves to secede but rather by conquest by Mao’s rebel forces.
It’s a solid analogy, the reasons for the breakaway are different but the analogy holds.
The CCP thru a revolution took over China, they view Formosa aka Taiwan as theirs just we view Alaska and Hawaii as ours. We would not tolerate a foreign government arming either breakaway state or if necessary, would use force to unite them back into the USA.
Without direct military force, China reunited Hong Kong back into China after many decades of British rule and traditions, they will do the same thing with Taiwan, if the methods don’t work as they did in Hong Kong, China will use force.
The bigger question is what the USA should do in response if anything, I don’t think many Americans are prepared to fight a war with China over an Island most couldn’t find on a map.
Nothing will happen, status quo will continue. It’s all talk.
Just my opinion.
>>”The CCP thru a revolution took over China, they view Formosa aka Taiwan as theirs just we view Alaska and Hawaii as ours.”
They may view them that way, but they’d be wrong to do so. Alaska and Hawaii were not acquired by force. The Chinese mainland was. Besides that, Taiwan was never controlled by the CCP, so to view them as a breakaway region is inaccurate. Of course, that doesn’t mean the CCP doesn’t try to portray the situation that way. But it’s just not accurate.
>>”The bigger question is what the USA should do in response if anything, I don’t think many Americans are prepared to fight a war with China over an Island most couldn’t find on a map.”
Neither do I. And I’m not advocating that we embroil ourselves in a kinetic war with China over it, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t represent a threat to our national security. The CCP’s agenda is clear. They continue to push the outer limits of their hegemony, and they’re patient. Their goal is to control the nations of the world whether through conquest or by economic means.
I think you are missing the point, it’s not what you and I think is right it’s the way China views Taiwan, they believe Taiwan was and always will be part of greater China.
There is no way China will allow Taiwan to become an independent country aligned and armed by the USA, it’s taken China decades to believe they on par militarily with the USA, they may not fully believe that now at some point they will
How?
I know China is BIG, but so is Taiwan. The sealift power to move that many troops 135 miles across open sea would be enormous. And that is 135 miles of open sea under and umbrella of land to sea missiles the likes of which no other country as amassed.
In WWII, Okinawa was the last amphibious operation of the war; accordingly, it dwarfed all previous landings. The ground force included 183,000 combat troops drawn from the army and marines, with an additional 120,000 service troops and engineers. The transport and logistical fleet consisted of more than 1,200 ships.
Okinawa 463 sq miles. Taiwan is 13,974 sq miles.
No one is invading Taiwan without a significant build up of sea transport. That build up would be visible to anyone with a satellite. And it would take a long time to ramp up.
No…A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not happening any time soon. It is a construct of American politicians to generate a sense of fear and urgency here.
things to get done before trump
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