Has the judged ruled on direct verdict?
Not sure. He may have.
If it's #2, the judge could set aside a guilty verdict if he thinks that no reasonable person would have come to that conclusion based on the evidence that was presented by the prosecution.
In the case of #2, the judge would be hoping that the jury would do his job for him and acquit. That would wipe away all of Merchan's biased decisions against Trump. If the jury votes to convict, Merchan could set it aside and save the appellate court from overturning him.
I think the likely outcome of a jury conviction would be for Merchan to deny the motion to dismiss and accept the jury's verdict. Nothing so far has shown me that Merchan is willing to let Trump go free, especially after all the name-calling that Trump has done throughout the trial. Merchan will have a giant chip on his shoulder.
-PJ