[NorthMountain]

That "old simplistic axiom" is the absolute truth.

those like me out here on the sidewalk at the retail level for friendly speculation.

Speculate all you like. Do so with the understanding that people will sometimes talk with apparent authority who do not know feces from shoe polish.

[frog in a pot]

That "old simplistic axiom" is the absolute truth.
Agreed, when it is applicable, which IMO it isn't in this case.

Do so with the understanding that people will sometimes talk with apparent authority who do not know feces from shoe polish.
You give us another truism that just isn't applicable in this case.. But then you have no way of knowing I have spent much of my career listening to experts arguing and then deciding who was blowing smoke, and living with the decision.