The Trustworthiness of Polls Has Completely Tanked, Due to Propping Up the Cheating

We all know that polls are biased, but the bias has reached a frenzy this year, with mainstream pollsters starting to pretend that Joe Biden is wildly popular when we all know it’s not true. Everyone, including the most hardcore progressives, knows he has fairly advanced dementia or Alzheimer’s and is merely a puppet at this point, controlled by powerful Democrat operatives behind the scenes writing what he says on the teleprompter. His support is manufactured.

Since pollsters are well aware of the cheating, we can expect them to sway their polls to show Biden leading as it gets closer to the election. Currently, despite the “shock polls” that the formerly conservative Drudge Report keeps highlighting with Biden bizarrely far in the lead, most of the regular polls show Trump ahead. Notably, Trump is leading in almost all of the swing states according to these polls.

Kaplan Strategies, a bipartisan pollster, has Trump way up in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, 15 points and 10 points respectively. He’s up five points in Pennsylvania and four points in Arizona. Coincidentally, the reputable and accurate Rasmussen Reports had Trump up four points a few days before the 2020 election. The also respectableTrafalgar Group had him up three points. Most people who believe Trump really won that election suspect he won by about that margin in Arizona.

There are a few honest pollsters, like Rasmussen, Trafalgar Group, and People’s Pundit Daily. Rasmussen had Trump up six points over Biden in a February poll. Unlike the left-wing biased pollsters, Rasmussen doesn’t skew their polls to show Trump up by drastic amounts.

One trick pollsters have used for years is to show the Democratic candidate ahead for most of the race, in order to demoralize the right and provide momentum to the left. This is known as the “bandwagon effect.” When Election Day gets close, polling results then tighten to show the Republicans doing better, which is done to protect the credibility of the pollster and make it look like the voters had changed their minds.

Since the cheating started, the pollsters now do the opposite; they make the Democrats look like they’re doing better the closer it gets to the election. They’re likely going to use abortion as their excuse, unless something else convenient pops up. Democrats claim that abortion affects elections, but voters rank it lower in importance than inflation, crime and immigration. Jessica Anderson writing at The Federalist noted how‘mainstream’ pollsters oversample college-educated voters and Democrats.” Many of them don’t even try to hide it, blatantly including the breakdown of who they polled.

Longtime pro-life writer Steve Ertelt, writing at LifeNews, showed how polls have started being skewed to elicit pro-abortion responses prior to the election. He observed about a Kaiser Family Foundation poll from February, “[O]ne question frames abortion as a health-care issue. Another asks about abortion in the case of a ‘pregnancy emergency.’ Furthermore, a body of polling data shows that responses to survey questions can often be influenced by previous questions.”

However, he noted that the poll did provide some useful information, such as that only “about 12 percent of voters cite abortion as the most important issue to their vote in 2024.” An NBC poll from November found that 18% of voters would vote for or against a candidate based on their position on abortion. Coincidentally, about 22% of women have had an abortion. Might that number merely be reflective of most of the women who have had an abortion, so it’s not really reflective of general voters, and that’s why it’s as high as it is and doesn’t change?

I predict the Democrats are going to cheat and steal this election again, but will claim their “victory” is due to women coming out to vote, having been riled up by states attempting to restrict abortion after Jackson v. Dobbs. In reality, after Jackson v. Dobbs reversed Roe v. Wade, pro-life candidate Kari Lake beat pro-abortion Katie Hobbs by a whopping eight points in the Arizona gubernatorial race, according to a Rasmussen exit poll. There was no backlash.

The site FiveThirtyEight compiles polls, and rates pollsters on how accurate they are. However, since 2020 these ratings cannot be trusted due to the cheating in elections. Rasmussen Reports is widely considered on the right as one of the most accurate pollsters for how the 2020 and 2020 elections should have turned out without the cheating. So they went from one of the most highly rated pollsters to the bottom, not even half a star out of three.

Instead, the highest rated pollsters are MSM: The New York Times/Siena College polls are rated number one, and ABC News/The Washington Post is rated number two. Immediately prior to the 2020 election, The New York Times/Siena College poll had Biden beating Trump 50-41%, which is laughable, “unmoved from 49-41% last month.” That same pollster has the two about tied in a poll this month, which is always a safe position this far ahead of the election.

Similarly, an ABC News/The Washington Post poll taken right before the 2020 election showed Biden ahead by 12 points. That pollster doesn’t appear to have taken any recent polls of the 2024 election; the last one was in September 2023 with Trump winning.

But as you can see, instead of being the most accurate pollsters, those two were the most wildly inaccurate, no one really believes that Biden got 81 million votes. What does this mean? Most pollsters are now utterly useless. They are merely predicting what will be the results after the cheating. The one use they have is to show us how much the Democrats intend to cheat. If their polls immediately prior to the election show a blue wave despite how popular we all know Trump is, we’re in real trouble.

Here's what I learned after several years working for a (very good) marketing research firm:

1. Polls are all biased. An unbiased poll is something of a work of art and they're difficult and expensive to prepare. Professional researchers allow for this in the analysis section, which is also expensive.

2. Polls are merchandise. They're something prepared for money sold to somebody who pays for them. If you're getting them for "free", meaning somebody else is paying for them, then that somebody is trying to sell you something.

3. Polls can be descriptive or normative, but not both. The cost for using them to influence behavior is that the results no longer work as objective descriptions. Political staffs tend to forget this and take their push polls' results seriously. It results in nasty surprises.

4. Polls are transient. They are a snapshot of answers given at a specific time and the longer it takes to gather and analyze the results, the bigger the error bars.

5. Online polls are worthless.

6. Polls about sexual behavior are worthless. Polls of teenagers concerning sexual behavior are hilariously worthless.

7. Polls whose answers may get the respondents in trouble with the law are worthless.

8. There is no such thing as anonymity.

9. Never confuse polls and data analytics. (Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign made that mistake). Past behavior is only an indirect predictor of future performance.

10. The best, most up-to-date, most accurate (and most expensive) political polls are not shared with the public because campaign staffs are planning tactics on their basis. These are termed internal polls. If you see them and you're not a campaign wonk, they're bogus.

I do not intend this to disparage polling at all - it's simply that like most things in politics it isn't quite what it appears to be. All IMHO, of course.

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