Posted on 04/27/2024 9:04:00 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
When Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of U.S. naval operations, gave an interview in 2022, he made a point of saying he believed China could invade Taiwan in 2022 or 2023. As of the last week of April 2024, China has not invaded Taiwan. Does this mean that Taiwan and the international community can breathe a collective sigh of relief? Maybe. A compelling case can be made that if China does intend to take Taiwan, then the period between now and January 2025 is as favorable a time as it is likely to have over the near term.
There is an array of measures China could employ in a runup to an invasion of Taiwan. These include disrupting the U.S. military’s ability to intervene by destroying command and control satellites as well as severing key undersea fiber optics cables. Wouldn’t these actions demand a vigorous U.S. response? This is exactly what China must avoid if it’s to take Taiwan. Experts have been wargaming various scenarios for years and the consensus seems to be that if the U.S. intervenes quickly it will thwart China’s invasion, but there would be heavy casualties on both sides.
Xi Jing Ping and his regime must be weighing the probabilities of a Biden versus a Trump victory in November because the outcome would be a significant variable in their calculus.
China's best opportunity to invade Taiwan in the short term without meaningful U.S. intervention seems to be between now and January 2025 might be a valid conclusion. However, China likes to play the long game so its timetable might not match up at all with conventional wisdom. China's true intentions remain opaque.
Perhaps Xi has decided that an invasion of Taiwan is too risky -- at least in the short term.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
I expect it will happen soon without a shot. Some sort of deal made in private and then announced.
The CCP are authoritarian and often quite brutal, but they don't appear to have the rule-or-ruin mentality common in the West these days.
That is a poorly reasoned and incredibly naive conclusion that you have reached.
China is having so many problems on so many fronts, they don’t have time to play war right now.
RE: China will take Taiwan the same way they took Macau and Hong Kong.
Errr… nope. Hongkong and Macau do not have armed militaries and citizens trained to use military weapons.
If I were China I would look at what is happening in Ukraine. They might just be underestimating Taiwan’s ability to defend themselves just like Russia. They can also look at the boycotts which would be devastating to China since they do not produce much in the way of raw materials. Also, the determination of the rest of the world to defend those being attacked by major powers. Of course if Ukraine looses that might be off.
It is of no real national interest for mainland China to invade and take over Taiwan. It is 100% simply a political interest on the part of the CCP.
It is the CCP, the dictatorship in mainland China, that was, is, and remains the reason Taiwan is fiercely indedent. Were mainlaind China a true multiparty democracy without the dictatorship of the CCP, the folks on Taiwan and the mainland would have long ago decided a mutual peaceful agreement ending the fracture from the civil war. But asking the democratic people of Taiwan to submit to the dictatorship of the CCP would never have been part of that.
Creating more debt in 4 years that Obama did in 8.
Shutting down most of the economy and killing millions of small businesses while empowering people like Fauci.
Creating 2/3 of the inflation we have now by pushing trillions of dollars into the system
Destroying supply chains with stupid tariffs
The American color revolution of 2020 never happened.
It was all Orange Man Bad.
As usual, no attempt to refute points because they can’t be refuted. Everything listed happened prior to 2020. Trump isn’t bad, he’s just not up to the job.
You'll probably go into a similar snit when the Ukraine Project implodes presently.
It must be tough to be constantly wrong about stuff on a public forum, where people can look up your old posts, and laugh about them. 
What Burshtyn thermal power plant and Kryvyi Rih thermal power plant doink?
The Trump-Biden presidencies have been a disaster just on inflation alone. I’m not looking forward to round 3, but we’re probably going to get it.
China will never invade ... the social cost is not worth it and may cause the downfall of the CCP.
They’ll simply buy out Taiwan.
Oh, look - a post where you're not wrong!
To be fair, though - the Trump inflation was the price America had to pay for the Deep State's color revolution.
Those cities weren't going to burn themselves, nor was Big Pharma going to pay itself for helping torpedo the Orange Man.
China doesn’t need to invade Tiawan, they just need to take it from within just like they are doing to the us, with over 20K young Chicoms across our boarder.
Wrong.
How many of the 3 direct monetary stimulus bills did Trump sign?
And the Trump debt....
Hate to break this to you, but Trump is part of the "Deep State" too.
You’re wrong.
Which is why the Deep State is trying to put him in prison, and bankrupt him and his family.
Wrong again, as is your usual way.
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