Posted on 04/03/2024 6:26:24 AM PDT by House Atreides
“A study published by the Ukrainian Institute of the Future in June of 2023 estimated Ukraine's population to be around 28.5M, while the Wilson Centre estimated (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-pos...) the population to be 31M. Males in the 25-27 age band are only 2% of the population according to US government data (https://www.census.gov/data-tools/dem.... US population data notes this age band has rough 419,000 people but is likely overstated as they use an overall population of 34.8M. I'd estimate it is likely closer to ~340K.
It is unknown how many men in this age band have already volunteered or were in the pre-war professional army. Open source KIA figures from UALosses put losses in the 25 to 29 category at 87% of 35 to 39 category, which given the larger number of males (25 to 29 is 65% the size of 35 to 39) in the latter would indicate that proportionally losses in the 25 to 29 category have been higher. This would seem to indicate that males in this age bracket volunteered at higher rates or were in the pre-war professional army, thus the number of available men this legal change could make available for conscription is probably limited.
From leaked French Defence Department leaks it was indicated that Ukraine needs 35,000 men per month and they were only able to recruit 17,500, while Russia needs 30,000 and they were getting this number of volunteers. This change in law is unlikely to provide Ukraine with the required manpower it needs. It should be noted that 20 to 24 is an even smaller segment of the population, as it less than 50% of the size of the 35 to 39 age band thus future legal changes will provide increasingly diminishing returns."
@Slavyangrad (http://t.me/Slavyangrad)
Ukraine appears to have sealed the border tight. Those who did not see this coming and left while they could, will most likely be fed into the meat grinder. I wonder how many weeks of “training” they’ll get?
“ Ukraine appears to have sealed the border tight.”
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I try to follow coverage from both “sides” and it does appear that Ukraine has done a good job of that. But we probably need to consider the possibility of successful interdictions being shown but successful “escapes” being kept quiet by the smuggling organizers.
I still believe Ukraine now only has about 20 million souls remaining, and those heavily skewed to the elderly.
Of course, they have lost population in Crimea and Donbas. Fertility rate has not been at replacement since the Soviet Union collapsed and they had the highest abortion rates in Europe. Up to 9 million left the country at the start of the war.
The only question is what was yearly outward migration from 1991-2022? Some EU sources indicate it was as high as 350K per year, some say it was “only” 100K per year.
—> Ukraine appears to have sealed the border tight.
I warned some time ago, anyone in Poland has a limited time to flee before WWIII begins in earnest and all escape is closed.
WWIII?
How would that start?
Is Russia planning on attacking & invading NATO countries with no provocation, like they did with Ukraine?
Hah...those that are still alive will be called “Russians” by then.
“Is Russia planning on attacking Russia planning on attacking & invading NATO countries with no provocation, like they did with Ukraine?”
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Hey, Frenchy, I think the plans are for Russia to invade NATO via troops landing via submarines on the northern coasts of the Canadian high arctic.
The western globohomopedos controlling ukraine want war.
Their typical playbook is a false flag they can blame on Russia
Of course, zeeper will lap it up, and cry for blood.
Russia has already said that planes flying missions out of bases in 3rd countries (Poland, Romania) will be considered fair targets for Russian retaliation.
So, that’s probably how Poland’s territory will get bombed, droned or missle fired upon the first time.
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