Key findings from survey of Arizona likely voters

North Star Opinion Research ^ | 3/18/24 | John McHenry and Dan Judy

[Redmen4ever]

March 14-17, N=600. TWO-WAY: Trump 46, Biden 42. FOUR-WAY: Trump 37, Biden 33, RFK Jr 18, Cornel West 2.

[Redmen4ever]

The Realclear average currently has Trump ahead by 5 points. In 2020, the last Realclear average put Biden ahead by 0.9 points in Arizona, and he won the state by 0.3 points. That is, Trump slightly overperformed relative to the polls (you can say this was because there were more "shy Trump voters" than dead voters. If Trump again overperforms relative to the polls, and if Trump maintains his current margin, he will win Arizona easily this year.

[thinden]

any poll that shows brandon > 37% is bogus, push pull polling to set up the steal, imo

[Dan in Wichita]

Third post here — where is the “Trump has no chance” crowd?

[Islander7]

2% of Arizona voters are brain dead racists.

[Eccl 10:2]

Only 600 voters in this poll. While good news, the sample is a little small to be drawing any final conclusions about the results.

[MinorityRepublican]

Still too early.

[zeestephen]

RFK and Cornel West took exactly 9% from Trump and 9% from Biden.

I am relieved.

I predicted RFK and West would get 60% of their support from Trump.

[Eccl 10:2]

Although I’m a little surprised at RFKJ’s strength, and disappointed that Trump’s spread did not increase with RFKJ and West included.

[Steely Tom]

I’ve never in my life seen the Republican candidate ahead by even one percent at this point in the campaign cycle.

Even Reagan in 1984 was portrayed by the MSM of that time as slightly behind Mondull. He was never depicted as being ahead, right up until he buried Mondull in a 49-state landslide.

[Gay State Conservative]

This year’s Rat Party convention should be fun to watch. They had better line up videos from their 1968 convention...also held in Chitcago.

[DIRTYSECRET]

The RNC Convention should be held on Catalina Island, the Casino building. Close off the island. Park a couple cruise ships for accommodations. Let them riot in LA.

There is no city not run by the rats. Why go into the lion’s den?

[MplsSteve]

Arizona is one of those states where I ask “What Happened?”.

It used to be solid GOP. We never worried about it in presidential races or even state races.

So what’s the problem?

Is it California refugees bring their voting habits along with them?

Is it illegal aliens?

Is it brain dead snowbirds (aka Condo Commies)?

Something else?

[Jeff Vader]

all of the above plus a corrupt gope that wanted T$ to lose

[NetAddicted]

I’m betting Trump wins all 50 states. I just read headline at Breitbart that said only 50% of Democrats plan on voting Dem. Plus, this would be a big win for Reagan, since he told Trump to run. Yeehaw!

[Dick Bachert]

[SisterK]

The Cartel Owns Arizona Government
we have not had an honest election in at least ten years

[hinckley buzzard]

Well, they do have a couple of state universities so there is that. Nests of idiots who vote their intellect.

[Redmen4ever]

I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I too would bet on Trump winning. Just not every state. The country is too polarized for anybody to score a landslide victory like Reagan did in 1984.

According to the London bookies, Trump is the favorite, but not by much.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/

[NetAddicted]

I believe in Trump, and besides the MAGAdonians, I’m betting the majority of the country believes in Trump. I know large percentages of African-Americans and Hispanics believe in Trump. Plus Jews. Hollyweird won’t and rich progressives. People that don’t have a million in the bank will be voting for Trump.