Posted on 03/01/2024 8:19:56 AM PST by Red Badger
KEY POINTS
* Russian President Vladimir Putin’s next move is being watched closely after the pro-Russian, breakaway region of
* Transnistria in Moldova asked Moscow to protect it.
* The self-proclaimed pro-Russian authorities of Transnistria on Wednesday asked Moscow to implement measures to protect the region and its economy against an alleged threat from Moldova.
* Putin delivered his state-of-the-nation address Thursday.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The West is watching Russian President Vladimir Putin’s next move closely after pro-Russian officials in the breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova appealed to Moscow for “protection” against the Moldovan authorities.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry responded Wednesday by saying protecting that the interests of the residents of Transnistria — calling them “compatriots” — was one of Russia’s priorities and that it would carefully consider the request, the ministry told RIA Novosti.
Analysts believed that Putin could use his state-of-the-nation address — an overview of the current situation in the country, and Russia’s goals at home and abroad — to make an announcement about Transnistria. However, he was tight-lipped Thursday about the region in eastern Moldova that Russia has backed since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The self-proclaimed pro-Russian authorities of Transnistria held a congress of senior officials Wednesday, at which they asked Moscow to implement measures to protect Transnistria — a region also known as Transdniestria or Pridnestrovie — and its economy against an alleged threat from Moldova, which has been aiming to reintegrate the region.
“There is social and economic pressure on Transdniestria, which directly contradicts European principles and approaches to the protection of human rights and free trade,” read the text of a resolution from the meeting, Reuters reported.
The document was addressed to Russia’s parliament, the Federal Assembly, asking it “to implement measures to protect Pridnestrovie [Transnistria] in the context of increasing pressure from Moldova,” news agency Tass reported.
The request, officials said, was made “taking into account the fact of permanent residence on the territory of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic [the official name of Transnistria] of more than 220,000 Russian citizens and the unique positive experience of Russian peacekeeping on the Dniester, and also the status of a guarantor and mediator in the negotiation process,” the resolution said.
Moldova’s government dismissed the statement Wednesday as “propaganda,” with a government spokesperson stating that “at this point, we want say clearly and firmly – there are no dangers of escalation and destabilization of the situation in the Transnistrian region of Moldova.”
“We keep a close eye and reiterate that the Transnistrian region is aligned with the goal of peace and security of Moldova. This is another propaganda event,” spokesperson Daniel Voda said.
The White House said it noted the development with U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, stating on Wednesday that “given Russia’s increasingly aggressive role in Europe, we are watching Russia’s actions in Transnistria and the broader situation there very closely.”
Concerns growing While the self-proclaimed authorities of Transnistria have made similar calls in the past, the latest request, amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, is sure to heighten “concerns about Moscow’s broader territorial ambitions in Europe,” Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at risk consultancy Teneo, said in emailed comments.
“As a result, recurring rumors about Russia’s alleged plans to annex the region could be part of Moscow’s attempts to heighten political tensions in Moldova ahead of the pivotal autumn 2024 presidential election, which might be held along with a referendum on pursuing EU membership,” he noted.
No member of the United Nations (including Russia) recognizes Transnistria’s sovereignty, and all U.N. members consider the region to be part of Moldova, which has expressed a desire to reintegrate the region. Still, Russia has a small military presence in Transnistria that is part of a “peacekeeping operation” there, Russia’s defense ministry says. Today, there is only one battalion (usually around 1,000 soldiers) in the region, the ministry notes, although it’s believed there are around 1,500 Russian soldiers there.
The latest call for help gives Russia a feasible excuse to reinforce those numbers, although it would be “extremely difficult” to do so, Tursa noted, because of its landlocked location.
It’s likely that Russia will justify the move by saying it is acting to protect its own citizens. The same tactic has been used in eastern Ukraine with support for pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, and in the case of the Russian-backed breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia. Both of those cases led to, or involved, war.
“Transnistria is a focal point for Putin’s games, as he can easily escalate a crisis due to the presence of Russian troops and Russian citizens there,” Ivana Stradner, research fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, said in emailed comments.
“Putin understands that as the West is distracted in Ukraine, the Middle East, elections in the EU and the U.S., he can escalate the Transnistria crisis via his proxies and show that the West will not protect Moldova.”
CNBC has contacted the Kremlin for a response to the comments and is awaiting a reply.
The move could also be a precursor to a referendum on joining the Russian Federation, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said, or to Russian troops not only entering but annexing Transnistria, amid speculation that Russia wants its “land bridge” of occupied territory across a swathe of southern Ukraine to reach Transnistria.
So far, however, Russian forces do not occupy the whole of southern Ukraine, with Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa still in Ukrainian hands.
Similarly to Ukraine, both Moldova and Georgia have pro-Western governments and want to join the European Union, meaning relations with Russia continue to be tense.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, another former Soviet republic, there have been heightened concerns that Georgia and Moldova could be next on the list, given Putin’s apparent ambition to rebuild Russia’s sphere of influence and semblance of a Russian empire.
Any move by Russia to reinforce its military presence in Moldova could put it on a direct collision path with Moldova’s government and armed forces, potentially opening another front in Russia’s expansionist war.
Met a young man from Moldova a few years back, he and his wife emigrated to the US soon after the fall of the USSR.............
1. Not a NATO member
2. On the other side of Ukraine, from Russia, and landlocked, so no Russian tanks are immediately likely
3. Things must be going bad for Ukraine which has emboldened this breakaway attempt
4. Fully expect Putin to support them covertly now, and overtly soon
He invaded Donbas and annexed Crimea when a weak, compliant tool was in the WH.
Same as 2022.
He’ll make all the hay that he can, before Jan 2025 inauguration.
He may be evil, but he has not survived this long by beiing stupid.
I think the ultimate goal is Odessa which is an ethnic Russian city.
The future Rump Ukraine will have no access to the Black Sea and their biggest business will be sex slaves.
Americans need protection from DC Marxists.
Who can we appeal to?
Remington, Smith & Wesson, Glock and Colt..................
Those all met their demise in boating accidents.
Ask and you shall receive.
just riffing off the idea that Red the movie was somewhat prescient.
Passing this off as Russian aggression is laughable.
More and more Normal Eastern Europeans don't want any part of GloboHomoPedoNazi Ukraine, WEF Oligarchs, ... or the US.
They aren’t asking for military help, but economic/political help. Transnistria is a welfare state supported by Russia, funded by free gas from Gazprom, which they use to produce electricity they sell to Moldova (accounting for 1/2 of Transnistria’s budget), and use domestically. Their economy is being hurt by lost trade with Ukraine (which accounted for 1/4th of Transnistria’s trade) and reduced trade with Russia.
Gazprom’s contract with Ukraine, which requires Ukraine to deliver Russian gas to Moldova/Transnistria via pipeline, expires at the end of this year, possibly cutting off Transnistria’s gravy train, and making them completely dependent on Moldova and EU trade. Moldova has already switched to non-Russian gas, and is in the process of connecting to the EU electrical grid.
This article summarizes the situation, and the pressure Moldova is putting on Transnistria:
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91460
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.