Posted on 02/27/2024 10:48:09 AM PST by george76
At the heart of the decline in family wealth is China's real estate meltdown, which is having a pervasive effect on a society where 70% of family assets are tied up in property.
Towards the end of last year, 34 of the top 50 Chinese property developers were in default..
China has rolled out new rules meant to expand access to commercial bank loans for property developers as Beijing doubles down on its effort to end a prolonged crisis in the real estate industry.
In an attempt to stabilize financial markets and boost the economy, the Chinese government has cut required bank reserves to add liquidity to the market.
Every 5% decline in home prices will wipe out $2.7 trillion in housing wealth..
Population Trends..
Official data showed the unemployment rate among those aged 16 to 24 was 14.9% in December 2023, excluding those still in school.
Additionally, China's population fell for the second consecutive year in 2023. This is the first time this has occurred since 1961, and that occurrence was brought on by a famine that took the lives of millions of citizens.
Statistics suggest that China's total fertility rate, which has steadily declined from 1.5 births per woman in the late 1990s to 1.15 in 2021, is now approaching 1.0, which is far below the replacement level of 2.1 that would maintain current population levels.
It remains to be seen if China will be able to alleviate the real estate downturn, as well as the declining population.
Do you think China will be able to reverse these trends?
Bkmk
They HAVE to be built empty. A buyer has to design the interior to fit their “feng shui”.
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not true. Most buyers want a place ready to move into, just like anyone else anywhere else.
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Do you think China will be able to reverse these trends?
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The list of threats and hostile actions against the US and others, and non stop lying, and major military build up by China is long. Based on that, I hope they don’t.
I wonder what US public pension plan exposure is...
Are they still building them? I remember they had crews working 24 hours a day building them everywhere back in 1998, with no plans of moving anyone in. Freeways all around the big cities, but with hardly any cars on them. The stock exchange with 90% of the workers sleeping at their desks.
“Japan in the 1980s: when Tokyo’s Imperial Palace was worth more than California and golf club membership could cost US$3 million – 5 crazy facts about the bubble economy.”
In the late 1980s, U.S. business schools were teaching that Japan, Inc. was an unstoppable economic powerhouse that was going to take over the global economy. Two years later, Japan entered a 30-year depression from which it has only very recently emerged.
Exactly.
If my old memory is correct, I recall the CBS Morning News having a headline stating all the real estate in Japan was more valuable than Americas’.
RE: Do you think China will be able to reverse these trends?
Roll out the US version of TARP when the mortgage crisis happened here 2008-2009. Let’s see what happens.
Russia is currently on a tear of building new residential dwellings, following some of the Chinese model.
New houses (with Government subsidized loans) are priced higher than used, so much that the market price can drop in half, the moment the first occupant moves in. The owner is typically then immediately under water, owing much more than the property is worth. A high percentage of these new mortgages require a very high percentage of the owners income just to make the payment, increasing the risks of default during any economic downturn.
Overleveraged, on overvalued properties. In increasing numbers.
It is pumping up their GDP numbers in the short term though.
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