Posted on 02/16/2024 8:32:58 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Several key indicators of the 2024 election environment indicate that President Joe Biden faces an uphill climb to win a second term. His job approval rating, Americans’ satisfaction with how things are going in the country and their confidence in the economy are below the levels associated with successful reelection bids in recent elections.
While Democrats hold a slight edge in national party identification and partisan leanings, that advantage is smaller than what it has been in past presidential elections won by Democratic incumbents.
In less direct measures of the electoral environment, Americans are more inclined to say that they are worse off financially, that it is harder to buy things and that the U.S. is as respected throughout the world as it was before Biden took office.
Biden’s fate will ultimately be determined by whether Americans’ views on these metrics improve over the course of the year (as they did for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2012), stay the same or get worse (as they did for George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Donald Trump in 2020).
Incumbent job approval is arguably the best predictor of reelection success. Presidents with approval ratings of 50% or higher close to Election Day have all been reelected. All but one president with a sub-50% approval rating lost, the exception being George W. Bush. He won reelection with a 48% approval rating in Gallup’s final 2004 preelection poll taken in late October. However, he registered multiple 50% readings earlier in the month and had a 51% approval rating among likely voters in that final survey.
Among the approval ratings that did not carry incumbents to victory, Trump’s 46% approval rating is the highest and Gerald Ford’s 45% close
(Excerpt) Read more at news.gallup.com ...
There may have been a time when it mattered what “the people” wanted. I am not optimistic. I got discouraged when Bill Clinton lied about being a sexual predator and was still president. The media built up George W Bush as a punching bag for Gore and the only thing that made that turn out was that they concentrated their efforts on Florida and Al Gore was a boring candidate. Kerry was funny looking. I don’t think he inspired the Democrats to go to the mat for him. Jeb Bush was propped up to be the guy who was going to lose to Hillary Clinton. When Trump won, it was the last straw for them. They won’t lose again.
Who is going to control Trump’s mouth..? He tends to let it run away at the worst times..
Who’s going to control yours?
He’s not too worried, the election fraud can’t be “polled”.
Very likely. I suspect if Trump is ahead, at 10:30pm on election night counting will stop in key states, at around 1:30am Democrat operatives will just happen to “find” ballots in the trunks of cars in those states, and by 4am that morning, Biden or whoever the Democrat party candidate is will suddenly pull into the lead walking away with it and anyone questioning the results will be charged with some bogus crime of “misinformation”.
sounds suspiciously like the kind of answer you’d from the Magic Eight Ball.
We can stop talking about Trump’s election chances.
They will not let Trump have a second term.
All the prognostications in the world don’t matter.
The Deep State will do anything to protect the Deep State.
They killed JFK to protect themselves and their power so stealing another election is a minor undertaking.
Democrats know they can rig and steal the election and keep a democrat figurehead in the White House no matter how real voters vote.
With their proven election stealing tactics they also know they could run a dead man or an AI creation and “win”.
And they have enough blackmailed, scared and corrupt republicans in their pockets to insure that there won’t be any serious investigation into their next election steal.
Just like the republican power structure looked the other way when democrats stole the 2020 election, killed Ashli Babbit, threw hundreds of demonstrators in the Gulag and stripped them of their constitutional rights.
And who democrats put in the White House as a figurehead doesn’t matter to them as long as he doesn’t get in their way.
Dumber is better so the people behind the curtain who really run the show can keep on keepin’ on.
So IMHO all those waiting for democrats to pull Biden from the ticket and run someone else are barking up the wrong tree.
He is their perfect candidate.
The “Imperial Presidency” is the gaggle of corrupt puppeteers behind the scene who run the country - not the tongue-tied doofus sitting in the White House.
To win this election and overcome the massive election fraud that WILL take place thanks to the Rat/RINO uniparty of treason doing absolutely nothing about election integrity, Trump is going to have to poll WAY way way over Biden, at least 20, 30 points, otherwise forget it, he will “lose” and we of course cannot protest unless we want to face jail time. The government IS under enemy occupation folks, there is no reason for them to allow a legit election.
I’ve been saying the same thing.
After everything they’ve tried, manipulated and whoever they put up to go against Trump looks like it will fail….,,, and Trump still looks like he us going to win the election come October, something will happen to him, so he is no longer alive. The system will start moly not allow him to be president. Period.
Beyond that macabre prediction, should Trump run and win there will be riots like we’ve never seen.
Should Trump run and lose the Democrats will triple down on all the stuff we hate about them to punish those who date supported Trump
And so it has been said…
RE: post 3: #2, and the planned Black Swan event to further shut down the country.
That is mighty smart of you, these modern day voters, modern women in particular are easily offended as they work off emotion, not fact..
That sounds exactly like how it will happen. I know it sucks, but that is reality.
Democrats may just resign themselves that Biden will lose and concentrate their chicanery in the house and Senate races. They are already trying to hamstring Trump’s ability to govern if he wins. Communists are always planning.
“Election fraud????”
Exactly ... almost no article these days address the effect of fraudulent mail-in balloting on the outcome. The press willfully ignores that impact not because it isn’t real but because it does not fit their narrative. To the media the only free and fair election is an election won by their side.
I think they will replace Biden last minute. This makes it so the replacement looks like they are saving the day, the replacement won’t have to campaign and there will be little time for the other side to attack and scrutinize the person.
Then they will cheat and defraud the voters once again.
Unless Joe drops over without any help.
“Democrats may just resign themselves that Biden will lose and concentrate their chicanery in the house and Senate races”
That is my read as well—the most likely scenario.
The Deep State could assassinate Biden—but imho that may be deemed risky in an age of a highly cynical populace where they do not have total control over all Internet communication. I suspect that it is being actively debated in smoke filled rooms as we speak. We probably do not even know the names of anyone in those rooms.
They are in it for the long game.
Like a fisherman loosening the grip for a short time they know they can go full “1984” on the fish down the road.
He didn’t win the last election, so why worry about this one?
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