Posted on 02/08/2024 5:54:55 AM PST by FarCenter
We humans, as author, mathematician and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb observes, “lack imagination to the point of not even knowing what tomorrow’s important things will look like.”
That is unless we’re talking about Asia’s view of the battle underway on Capitol Hill over the US deficit.
Taleb, famous for his 2007 bestseller “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, argues this threat is hiding in plain sight. The “white swan” about which Taleb warns is a “spiral” as the US debt tops US$34 trillion and lawmakers gamble with Washington’s last AAA credit rating.
In November, Moody’s Investors Service warned it might yank away America’s only remaining top rating. That followed three months after Fitch Ratings downgraded the US to AA+ as Republicans and Democrats brawled over funding the government.
“The risk is right in front of us,” Taleb told an investment forum last week. “If you see a fragile bridge, you know it’s going to collapse at some point.” Taleb adds that “we need something to come in from the outside, or maybe some kind of miracle.”
Yet miracles seem in short supply as US fiscal priorities favor continued expansion. On Wednesday (February 7), the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said the deficit will continue to climb over the next decade, ensuring that interest payments, already a record share of government spending, become an even bigger challenge for lawmakers and burden to America’s bottom line.
The CBO sees deficits jumping to $2.6 trillion in 2034 from US$1.6 trillion this year. Today, the gap is 5.6% of gross domestic product (GDP); by 2025, it’s seen increasing to 6.1%. “The primary deficits in the CBO’s projections are especially large given the relatively low unemployment rates that the agency is forecasting,” the agency says.
Hence Taleb’s concerns that the globe’s biggest economy is courting a debt reckoning in ways everyone can see coming, as white not black swan.
“So long as you have Congress keep extending the debt limit and doing deals because they’re afraid of the consequences of doing the right thing, that’s the political structure of the political system, eventually you’re going to have a debt spiral,” Taleb said.
More money for Ukraine and Israel…
An alcoholic doesn’t have withdrawals if he keeps drinking.
However, he does die of organ failure.
“An alcoholic doesn’t have withdrawals if he keeps drinking. However, he does die of organ failure.”
You nailed it!
$34.2T and rising rapidly.
Just a matter of time before Moody’s cuts U.S. rating. Could happen at around the $35T level IMO (which won’t be long from now).
We have a spending addiction, both at the government and personal levels.
Yep. I can only control my decisions.
I have zero debt and I am mostly a minimalist.
““So long as you have Congress keep extending the debt limit and doing deals because they’re afraid of the consequences of doing the right thing, that’s the political structure of the political system, eventually you’re going to have a debt spiral,” Taleb said.”
You heard it from Congress first:
“Get out of cash, rack up as much debt as you can, purchase assets which denominate to dollars and can convert. As the dollar collapses the assets have intrinsic value and will be denominated accordingly.
You think it’s going to be bad when the welfare class doesn’t get their unearned due each month?
Just wait until us ‘Grannies on a Fixed Income’ get stiffed! Those boys in DC have no idea the hell we will be unleashing upon their heads!
That’s MY MONEY that was CONFISCATED from MY EARNINGS and p*ssed away for THEIR pleasure! I earned it! It’s MINE. Give. It. Back.*
*The average Taxpayer puts $405,000.00 into SS over the course of their working life.
“The 2023 annual report from Social Security’s trustees estimates that without legislative changes in how the program is financed, the current surplus in the trust funds will run out by 2034. In that case, the SSA will only be able to pay out what it takes in each year in taxes and benefits would be about 20 percent lower, significantly altering the lifetime-benefit calculus.”
With the collapse of the Soviet Union we should have withdrawn from running the rest of the world and started to deal with domestic issues. We still should. NATO is an expensive Albotross around our necks and should have been scaled back as should those three other extra-constitution empires, the European Commions and the terrorist subsidizing and coddling UN, oh and the Nazi lead WEF. Hey Switzerland neutrality means you stay out of everyone’s affairs, not try to run everyone’s lives.
ping
“I have zero debt and I am mostly a minimalist.”
Me, too! Except for yarn. And my gardening ventures. And shoes. ;)
Retired at 56 - DEBT FREE - thanks to Dave Ramsey and always living BELOW my means. Now I’m working on making my SS work FOR me in my Golden Years.
At least, until it’s insolvent. :(
The MIC is “high maintenance”. It thrives on foreign entanglements.
You are missing a three. 334 trillion. Unfunded liabilities, or money promised but the bill hasn’t come due yet. We are so screwed
Of course Congress shoulders the blame. But they supposedly represent the voters (along with special interests) and the voters are not exactly worried to death about the federal debt.
It is like that outdoor restaurant scene near the beginning of Jurassic Park where Dennis says “see? nobody cares”.
As interest rates continue to rise and the interest on the debt consumes the budget Congress will get deservedly nervous. Good. Let them squirm.
The federal debt is too indirect of a problem for the voters. They cannot see it as plainly as they can their own finances. If they were sent a monthly bill then it might be different. But then again they might just finance it along with their credit card debt.
Debt is an ugly trap.
A LARGE portion of the population pay NO TAXES. Does this liability figure include them, or just us hard working taxpayers?
Savers are scre@#$@-ed. Spenders, not so much.
I’m looking forward to paying off my mortgage with garage sale proceeds.
Wouldn’t two ways out of this mess be either massive inflation reducing the value of the debt or bankruptcy discharging that debt?
You can have both massive inflation and bankruptcy.
That’s the Argentina approach.
>>Of course Congress shoulders the blame. But they supposedly represent the voters (along with special interests) and the voters are not exactly worried to death about the federal debt.
The Democrats have always loved to tax and spend, although they loved to spend more than tax. Hence their fiscal irresponsibility.
The Republicans were more in favor of fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets. However, in the Reagan administration the party decided that debt wasn’t a bad thing because if you ran up the debt enough, it would constrain future spending by Democrats. Thus, the ploy was to cut taxes and spend heavily on Republican priorities, especially defense and the MIC. That was the Republican approach until the Tea Party.
Both parties love to add “off the books” debt by Federal guarantees for various forms of debt, e.g. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and VA housing mortgage debt.
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