Nadezhdin will not be allowed to participate in the elections, but there is a dangerous moment for the Kremlin.
The Central Election Commission, as we predicted, does not intend to allow Boris Nadezhdin to participate in the elections. Right now there is a struggle over signatures for a presidential candidate. Nadezhdin's headquarters has already announced that the Central Election Commission rejected more than 15% of the signatures. At the same time, it is already known that the reason for the blocking is formal - the CEC declared more than 2,500 signatures invalid due to the fact that the dates of entry were not entered by voters, but directly by the organizers of the collection. It is obvious that Ella Pamfilova will not allow the only anti-war candidate to participate in the elections. But this whole story with Nadezhdin is already an important signal for the [Presidential Administration].
“Nadezhdin showed that there is a demand in the country for an anti-war candidate. And this is important to understand. Yes, it is obvious that the administrative resource will win and the candidate will not be registered. But what next? It is unlikely that Borya (Nadezhdin - Ed.) will lead people into the streets. But all this story showed that not everyone in the country is for Putin and his course,” says a political strategist who previously collaborated with the Kremlin.
Another important point is that even the attempt to nominate Nadezhdin became possible due to inconsistency of actions within the Administration. In the long term, this could lead to destabilization of the situation within the country. Here we would advise top officials not to play politics at such an important moment for the country. The country is de facto at war! And it is important for us to win this war!
State organizations continue to collect signatures in support of Vladimir Putin and publish propaganda, with a long delay. Yesterday, a publication about collecting signatures in support of Putin's nomination appeared on the verified VKontakte page of the Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk Chamber of Control and Accounts.
First of all, it's illegal. And secondly, Putin's headquarters submitted signatures to the Central Election Commission on January 22, and on January 29 he was registered as a candidate. I wonder what this “lateness” is connected with.
Russian blogger:
Pamfilova [head of Election Commission] conveyed a message from Putin to Nadezhdin.
The miracle did not happen - the Central Election Commission refused to register Boris Nadezhdin as a presidential candidate. We have long predicted that this is exactly what will happen, because Nadezhdin quickly gained popularity and his campaign went on a grand scale. However, it is also clear that the presence of a candidate with an anti-war agenda confused the [Presidential Administration]’s plans.
As a result, Nadezhdin remains left behind. But there is a separate point that is worth paying attention to. Ella Pamfilova suggested that Nadezhdin “not jump from party to party,” but create his own.
Our interlocutors from the Kremlin’s political bloc made it clear that these are not just words. This is essentially the position of Sergei Kiriyenko, which he agreed with the president. Nadezhdin will be allowed to create a party and even, possibly, get seats in the State Duma.
“There were no risks for Vladimir Vladimirovich, but it is better to keep the anti-war agenda out of harm’s way. [Boris] must understand that it is better for him to shut up now and he will get a chance for a seat in the State Duma,” said our interlocutor. At the same time, he emphasized that the Kremlin has not recently conducted any communication with Nadezhdin’s team.
Now it is important to see whether Nadezhdin will agree to a conditional deal or whether he will demand to be recognized as a presidential candidate until the last minute.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3571
In mid-March, Vladimir Putin will be re-elected president again. There is no doubt that he will win the elections. However, the voting process itself is necessary to ensure the legitimacy of Vladimir Vladimirovich and increase the level of support among the population. Against the background of the death of Alexei Navalny and the withdrawal of Boris Nadezhdin from the election race, we talked with people in the Kremlin and those who ensure the elections. Combining the opinions of our interlocutors, we can state that there are three main fears in the AP.
The first fear is that the organizers will not be able to ensure a result of 87%. This is exactly the figure that appears in internal documents.
The second fear is that the election race will bring someone with an anti-war or neutral agenda into the political arena. It was for this reason that Nadezhdin was banned from being a candidate, and for the same reason Abramovich was dissuaded .
The third fear is that ordinary Russians will perceive this term as Putin's last, and will demand a lot from him. In particular, we are talking about problems in the regions, whose authorities are often distinguished by all the known “excesses on the ground.” There are fears in the AP that the movement of mobilized wives is only the first sign; then a conditional “movement of engineers’ wives” may appear, who will demand apartments or higher salaries for their husbands. It is for this reason that the election campaign is proceeding extremely quietly, and protest actions have begun to be dealt with more harshly. However, as you understand, any destabilization during a war does not benefit the state. Therefore, you need to be more careful with protests.
At the same time, in general, the Kremlin does not have any global problems, because ordinary Russians do not see an alternative to Vladimir Putin. And the year 2030, when it will be necessary to go to the sites again, is still very far away.